FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Bitcoin has exploded higher in recent weeks as futures trading draws near, slated for next week on the CME, and other mainstream financial products, like ETFs, are widely expected.  If it does grow in stature as a store of value, its fair value is conservatively $50,000 in our view.  It may not be a coincidence that as financial stress in China creeps up, and Trump throws Middle East peace under a bus, demand for bitcoin picks up.  There may even be evidence that investors are starting to rotate out of gold towards Bitcoin; a shift from the old world haven to the haven for the digital world.  The grumpy old men of finance are dismissing Bitcoin as a bubble.  It probably is, but one that is blowing up, and may do so much further.  The bearish consensus view for the USD is getting harder to square with its improved yield advantage and strong economic outlook.  Tighter USD short funding costs, position squaring and seasonal strength may propel the USD higher into year-end.  EM markets are tiring into year-end.

Bitcoin has exploded higher in recent weeks as futures trading draws near, slated for next week on the CME, and other mainstream financial products, like ETFs, are widely expected.  If it does grow in stature as a store of value, its fair value is conservatively $50,000 in our view.  It may not be a coincidence that as financial stress in China creeps up, and Trump throws Middle East peace under a bus, demand for bitcoin picks up.  There may even be evidence that investors are starting to rotate out of gold towards Bitcoin; a shift from the old world haven to the haven for the digital world.  The grumpy old men of finance are dismissing Bitcoin as a bubble.  It probably is, but one that is blowing up, and may do so much further.  The bearish consensus view for the USD is getting harder to square with its improved yield advantage and strong economic outlook.  Tighter USD short funding costs, position squaring and seasonal strength may propel the USD higher into year-end.  EM markets are tiring into year-end.

There has been a wide divergence between the performance of US equities and the USD in the last year, accelerating in the last month.  The USD also has underperformed US rates and yields.  It appears that equities have responded positively to the faster pace of progress on tax reform, while the USD has responded more to political uncertainty related to the Mueller investigation and the provocative style of president Trump.   We have been surprised at times this year that the USD has remained so weak.  The competing factors of tax reform progress and Flynn’s plea deal pull the USD in different directions.  However, if the pattern this year that has intensified in the last month persists, the USD may continue to slide despite tax reform. Rolling medium-term political uncertainty has weighed on the USD so far this year. It may continue and intensify in the next year, dragging down the USD, or at least dampen its positive response to stronger economic confidence and rate hikes if tax reform helps sustain and boost the pace of US growth.

There has been a wide divergence between the performance of US equities and the USD in the last year, accelerating in the last month.  The USD also has underperformed US rates and yields.  It appears that equities have responded positively to the faster pace of progress on tax reform, while the USD has responded more to political uncertainty related to the Mueller investigation and the provocative style of president Trump.   We have been surprised at times this year that the USD has remained so weak.  The competing factors of tax reform progress and Flynn’s plea deal pull the USD in different directions.  However, if the pattern this year that has intensified in the last month persists, the USD may continue to slide despite tax reform. Rolling medium-term political uncertainty has weighed on the USD so far this year. It may continue and intensify in the next year, dragging down the USD, or at least dampen its positive response to stronger economic confidence and rate hikes if tax reform helps sustain and boost the pace of US growth.

USD: Political Risk Proxy / US Stocks: Tax Reform Proxy

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/039/499/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-11-30%20at%203.35.00%20PM.png?1512018337" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="39499"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
The second estimate of Q3 GDP, which saw growth revised up to 3.3% SAAR from the 3.1% SAAR advance estimate, provided further evidence of the US economy's strength.
Increased estimates of capex - a theme that we continually stressed - were the main source of the upgrade. Equipment capex is now estimated to have surged by 10.4% SAAR in Q3. Bellwether lead indicators signal that even better is still to come (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-boom-part-2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15418">Chart of the Day: BOOM! - Part 2</a>). 
One less-heralded aspect of the US's late-cycle boom…
</div>


The second estimate of Q3 GDP, which saw growth revised up to 3.3% SAAR from the 3.1% SAAR advance estimate, provided further evidence of the US economy's strength.
Increased estimates of capex - a theme that we continually stressed - were the main source of the upgrade. Equipment capex is now estimated to have surged by 10.4% SAAR in Q3. Bellwether lead indicators signal that even better is still to come (see Chart of the Day: BOOM! - Part 2). 
One less-heralded aspect of the US's late-cycle boom…


We believe bitcoin is not a bubble, but is growing into a role as an important financial instrument that will be used as a significant store of value for global wealth.  Its whippy meteoric rise may be growing pains rather than an irrational mania.

We believe bitcoin is not a bubble, but is growing into a role as an important financial instrument that will be used as a significant store of value for global wealth.  Its whippy meteoric rise may be growing pains rather than an irrational mania. 

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

DXY - USD index is expected to find support at 92.50-70 for a mild bounce sequence as we move closer to the Fed meeting on the 12-13th. DXY bounce resistance comes in at 93.70-94.00 and the fresh short zone for a break below 92.50 to pressure the bigger 92 macro support zone. Asian FX is our top basket to be short the USD which is equity supportive.Given the bear turn just under DXY 93.50 we would be targeting DXY 88 going forward after we hash through a December Fed rate hike. We initiated a…

DXY - USD index is expected to find support at 92.50-70 for a mild bounce sequence as we move closer to the Fed meeting on the 12-13th. DXY bounce resistance comes in at 93.70-94.00 and the fresh short zone for a break below 92.50 to pressure the bigger 92 macro support zone. Asian FX is our top basket to be short the USD which is equity supportive.Given the bear turn just under DXY 93.50 we would be targeting DXY 88 going forward after we hash through a December Fed rate hike. We initiated a…

Fed Meet a Fresh USD Short Opportunity Against Asian FX

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

USD (USD CURNCY)

Rotation from Gold to Bitcoin

Bitcoin has exploded higher in recent weeks as futures trading draws near, slated for next week on the CME, and other mainstream financial...

Greg Gibbs

USD: Political Risk Proxy / US Stocks: Tax Reform Proxy

There has been a wide divergence between the performance of US equities and the USD in the last year, accelerating in the last month. The USD also...

Greg Gibbs

Chart of the Day: BOOM! - Part 3

The second estimate of Q3 GDP, which saw growth revised up to 3.3% SAAR from the 3.1% SAAR advance estimate, provided further evidence of the US...

Richard Iley

Bitcoin – Bubble or Growing Pains?

We believe bitcoin is not a bubble, but is growing into a role as an important financial instrument that will be used as a significant store of...

Greg Gibbs

Fed Meet a Fresh USD Short Opportunity Against Asian FX

DXY - USD index is expected to find support at 92.50-70 for a mild bounce sequence as we move closer to the Fed meeting on the 12-13th. DXY bounce...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)