FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Individual country preliminary inflation data for May suggest that Eurozone headline and core measures will rebound more than expected.  Without the political upheaval in Italy, the data might signal a clearer path to exiting QE and support a sizeable recovery in EUR.  Political uncertainty eased somewhat on Tuesday and EUR has rebounded, but the situation remains fluid.  US economic reports were mixed with a downward revision in Q1 PCE inflation, and softer ADP employment.  However, the Beige Book pointed to somewhat more wage and inflation pressure.  The Bank of Canada suggested that a hike at its next meeting in July would be consistent with their gradual normalisation in rates policy, necessary with inflation on target and the economy operating near capacity.  They see risks from trade policy and global stresses, but not enough to derail plans to hike soon.

Individual country preliminary inflation data for May suggest that Eurozone headline and core measures will rebound more than expected.  Without the political upheaval in Italy, the data might signal a clearer path to exiting QE and support a sizeable recovery in EUR.  Political uncertainty eased somewhat on Tuesday and EUR has rebounded, but the situation remains fluid.  US economic reports were mixed with a downward revision in Q1 PCE inflation, and softer ADP employment.  However, the Beige Book pointed to somewhat more wage and inflation pressure.  The Bank of Canada suggested that a hike at its next meeting in July would be consistent with their gradual normalisation in rates policy, necessary with inflation on target and the economy operating near capacity.  They see risks from trade policy and global stresses, but not enough to derail plans to hike soon.

Euro Inflation, US Economy and Canada Rates Still on Track

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Our bullish USD call on the break above DXY 90.50 is fast approaching our MT upside objective. In fact, the rise has been a bit more aggressive than we originally expected and stems from the Euro unwind as well as EM FX pressures. It is important to now differentiate between how EM FX responds to a weaker yield cycle while the Euro battles political and economic upheaval.Recent USD strength above DXY 94.20 flew in the face of a hard yield fade which we called from 10yr 3.10%+ zone, representing…

Our bullish USD call on the break above DXY 90.50 is fast approaching our MT upside objective. In fact, the rise has been a bit more aggressive than we originally expected and stems from the Euro unwind as well as EM FX pressures. It is important to now differentiate between how EM FX responds to a weaker yield cycle while the Euro battles political and economic upheaval.Recent USD strength above DXY 94.20 flew in the face of a hard yield fade which we called from 10yr 3.10%+ zone, representing…

Italian leaders have set on a course to clash with the EU that will be hard to turn back from.  A more prolonged crisis appears likely.  Trump is pursuing his hard-line on trade; announcing plans to move ahead with tariffs on Chinese imports and restrictions on investments and trade in the high tech sector.  It wasn’t so long ago that global investor confidence was buoyed by solid synchronized global growth. And yields were rising on firming commodity prices, tightening labour markets, fiscal expansion, rate rises in the US and some other economies, and anticipation that the ECB would end QE in September and begin hikes in 2019.  Fears over populist policy trends were receding.  They are back with a vengeance. Populist policies that threaten regional and global cooperation are driving up risk aversion.

Italian leaders have set on a course to clash with the EU that will be hard to turn back from.  A more prolonged crisis appears likely.  Trump is pursuing his hard-line on trade; announcing plans to move ahead with tariffs on Chinese imports and restrictions on investments and trade in the high tech sector.  It wasn’t so long ago that global investor confidence was buoyed by solid synchronized global growth. And yields were rising on firming commodity prices, tightening labour markets, fiscal expansion, rate rises in the US and some other economies, and anticipation that the ECB would end QE in September and begin hikes in 2019.  Fears over populist policy trends were receding.  They are back with a vengeance. Populist policies that threaten regional and global cooperation are driving up risk aversion. 

Hardened Populist Politics in Italy and the USA

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


A brief summary of recent CrossBorder Capital EM researchEvery Emerging Market Crisis is first-and-foremost a currency crisis. This simple fact emphasises both the importance of cross-border flows (viz. the recent example of Argentina) and the need for domestic monetary policy discipline (viz. the more recent example of Turkey). Both are connected since policy-makers are sensitive to capital flows. A statistical analysis of the factors that drive EM crises singles-out the impact cross-border…

A brief summary of recent CrossBorder Capital EM researchEvery Emerging Market Crisis is first-and-foremost a currency crisis. This simple fact emphasises both the importance of cross-border flows (viz. the recent example of Argentina) and the need for domestic monetary policy discipline (viz. the more recent example of Turkey). Both are connected since policy-makers are sensitive to capital flows. A statistical analysis of the factors that drive EM crises singles-out the impact cross-border…

Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Macroeconomics

In line with previous reports such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a12deeb5-d34b-45b2-b9c2-ffc017d9f1c9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:2901">This Time Is Not Different: The Seeds of the Next Crisis Are Being Sown</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-calling-dollar-rally-set-to-continue-on-real-yields-positioning-policy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19039">Asia Calling: Dollar Rally Set to Continue on Real Yields, Positioning, Policy</a>, this Quick Note is meant as a challenge to the view that the US dollar (USD) rally - and EM decline - may be over soon.DebtAccording to a recent Fitch report as reported by newswires, outstanding debt securities from 'developing nations' have spiked to USD 19trn from USD 5trn a decade earlier. Despite the…

In line with previous reports such as This Time Is Not Different: The Seeds of the Next Crisis Are Being Sown and Asia Calling: Dollar Rally Set to Continue on Real Yields, Positioning, Policy, this Quick Note is meant as a challenge to the view that the US dollar (USD) rally - and EM decline - may be over soon.DebtAccording to a recent Fitch report as reported by newswires, outstanding debt securities from 'developing nations' have spiked to USD 19trn from USD 5trn a decade earlier. Despite the…

EM - Back to the Future with the Fragile 10

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

Euro Inflation, US Economy and Canada Rates Still on Track

Individual country preliminary inflation data for May suggest that Eurozone headline and core measures will rebound more than expected. Without...

Greg Gibbs

USD Rally Path on the Money

Our bullish USD call on the break above DXY 90.50 is fast approaching our MT upside objective. In fact, the rise has been a bit more aggressive...

Thomas Schroeder

Hardened Populist Politics in Italy and the USA

Italian leaders have set on a course to clash with the EU that will be hard to turn back from. A more prolonged crisis appears likely. Trump is...

Greg Gibbs

Emerging Markets -- Is It Time To Panic?

A brief summary of recent CrossBorder Capital EM researchEvery Emerging Market Crisis is first-and-foremost a currency crisis. This simple fact...

Michael J. Howell

EM - Back to the Future with the Fragile 10

In line with previous reports such as This Time Is Not Different: The Seeds of the Next Crisis Are Being Sown and Asia Calling: Dollar Rally Set to...

Callum Henderson

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