FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action.  This may be helping drive the USD higher in the recent upheaval led by Turkey. And it may be adding to the woes of other EM currencies with significant dollar-debt.  However, when you exchange TRL for USD, you are exchanging the currency of one country with a large twin deficit for another with an equally troubling demand for dollar debt. You are exchanging a populist political leader with a penchant for controlling the media and the central bank for another in an existential battle with the political and legal establishment, attacking the media, central bank and many foreign countries’ governments. The US economy is not an island immune from risks abroad, and it is not well prepared to deal with an economic slowdown or financial stress.  There is no fiscal room, and all eyes would turn to the Fed if, and when, stress abroad, some of it driven by US foreign policy, feeds back to the USA.

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action.  This may be helping drive the USD higher in the recent upheaval led by Turkey. And it may be adding to the woes of other EM currencies with significant dollar-debt.  However, when you exchange TRL for USD, you are exchanging the currency of one country with a large twin deficit for another with an equally troubling demand for dollar debt. You are exchanging a populist political leader with a penchant for controlling the media and the central bank for another in an existential battle with the political and legal establishment, attacking the media, central bank and many foreign countries’ governments. The US economy is not an island immune from risks abroad, and it is not well prepared to deal with an economic slowdown or financial stress.  There is no fiscal room, and all eyes would turn to the Fed if, and when, stress abroad, some of it driven by US foreign policy, feeds back to the USA.

TRL for USD; Exchanging One Twin Deficit and Populist Government for Another

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>USD is at a key inflection point … we warn it could rise by 5-10%</li>
<li>EM Central Banks appear to be ‘defensively’ adding USD to their forex reserves</li>
<li>US Authorities could be deliberately restricting the size of the off-shore Eurodollar markets</li>
</ul>The US dollar appears poised for a move. Many traders are tactically calling for a sell-off, and we admit to maintaining a cautious long-term view given the huge US$3 trillion flows of capital that have flooded into the US from Europe and Asia in the past five…


USD is at a key inflection point … we warn it could rise by 5-10%
EM Central Banks appear to be ‘defensively’ adding USD to their forex reserves
US Authorities could be deliberately restricting the size of the off-shore Eurodollar markets
The US dollar appears poised for a move. Many traders are tactically calling for a sell-off, and we admit to maintaining a cautious long-term view given the huge US$3 trillion flows of capital that have flooded into the US from Europe and Asia in the past five…

What Goes Up… Err Goes Up? USD Prospects

<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity matters hugely to asset markets and ultimately to economies</li>
<li>Major Central Banks, led by the US Fed, show no signs of ending their on-going liquidity squeeze, although China's PBoC may have 'blinked'</li>
<li>The longer this squeeze goes on the greater the downside risks to World equity and credit markets
</li>
</ul>Investors face an uphill struggle, according to latest weekly liquidity data. Don’t fight the Fed, but don’t wrestle with the PBoC, BoJ, BoE and ECB either! The chart below…



Global Liquidity matters hugely to asset markets and ultimately to economies
Major Central Banks, led by the US Fed, show no signs of ending their on-going liquidity squeeze, although China's PBoC may have 'blinked'
The longer this squeeze goes on the greater the downside risks to World equity and credit markets

Investors face an uphill struggle, according to latest weekly liquidity data. Don’t fight the Fed, but don’t wrestle with the PBoC, BoJ, BoE and ECB either! The chart below…

The AUD faces a number of downside risks; these include a weakening housing market, a persistent jump in Australian bank funding costs, tightening credit conditions for Australian borrowers, tightening shadow-finance in China, a slowing Chinese economy, and threats related to a trade war between the US and China. However, to date, China is managing its economy and financial sector to prevent more than a gradual slowing in activity. Chinese steel production growth remains solid and Australian commodity prices are holding above their average for the last two years. Australia is taking a bigger share of Chinese iron ore imports, and its material sector is being supported by a combination of a weaker AUD and stable commodity prices. Australia’s external balance appears structurally stronger. Private business investment is growing solidly, supported by infrastructure demand, as the mining investment downturn tapers out. Overall business conditions have ebbed in recent months but remain well above average. Consumer confidence has lifted to moderately above average, showing little fallout, yet, from a weaker housing market. We expect the AUD/USD to be hemmed into a 70/75 range with a bias to expect further falls.

The AUD faces a number of downside risks; these include a weakening housing market, a persistent jump in Australian bank funding costs, tightening credit conditions for Australian borrowers, tightening shadow-finance in China, a slowing Chinese economy, and threats related to a trade war between the US and China. However, to date, China is managing its economy and financial sector to prevent more than a gradual slowing in activity. Chinese steel production growth remains solid and Australian commodity prices are holding above their average for the last two years. Australia is taking a bigger share of Chinese iron ore imports, and its material sector is being supported by a combination of a weaker AUD and stable commodity prices. Australia’s external balance appears structurally stronger. Private business investment is growing solidly, supported by infrastructure demand, as the mining investment downturn tapers out. Overall business conditions have ebbed in recent months but remain well above average. Consumer confidence has lifted to moderately above average, showing little fallout, yet, from a weaker housing market. We expect the AUD/USD to be hemmed into a 70/75 range with a bias to expect further falls.

AUD – What Gives? – Risks and Strengths

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

Phase one of the EM sell-off has been driven by the rising <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22821" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22821:1">USD (USD CURNCY)</a> and concerns about the impact of monetary tightening, compounded by investors belatedly rebalancing portfolios away from emerging markets towards US equities, having underestimated the inherent strengths of the US economy and corporate sector since 2009.As I predicted in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-us-china-relationship-investors-complacent-despite-irreconcilable-differences" target="_blank">May</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/growth-shock-is-the-next-phase-for-global-equity-markets" target="_blank">June</a> reports on this site, markets have now moved into phase two, comprising a scare around global growth, given the increasingly obvious problems through much of Europe and in the major emerging economies, due to domestic political issues and/or upward pressure on domestic interest rates, but above all the threat of increasing trade tariffs.

Phase one of the EM sell-off has been driven by the rising USD (USD CURNCY) and concerns about the impact of monetary tightening, compounded by investors belatedly rebalancing portfolios away from emerging markets towards US equities, having underestimated the inherent strengths of the US economy and corporate sector since 2009.As I predicted in the May and June reports on this site, markets have now moved into phase two, comprising a scare around global growth, given the increasingly obvious problems through much of Europe and in the major emerging economies, due to domestic political issues and/or upward pressure on domestic interest rates, but above all the threat of increasing trade tariffs.

Still Too Early to Buy Emerging Equities Given the Deteriorating Outlook for China and India

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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TRL for USD; Exchanging One Twin Deficit and Populist Government for Another

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action. This may be helping drive the USD higher in the...

Greg Gibbs

What Goes Up… Err Goes Up? USD Prospects

USD is at a key inflection point … we warn it could rise by 5-10% EM Central Banks appear to be ‘defensively’ adding USD to their forex...

Michael J. Howell

Red Lights Over Markets

Global Liquidity matters hugely to asset markets and ultimately to economies Major Central Banks, led by the US Fed, show no signs of ending...

Michael J. Howell

AUD – What Gives? – Risks and Strengths

The AUD faces a number of downside risks; these include a weakening housing market, a persistent jump in Australian bank funding costs, tightening...

Greg Gibbs

Still Too Early to Buy Emerging Equities Given the Deteriorating Outlook for China and India

Phase one of the EM sell-off has been driven by the rising USD (USD CURNCY) and concerns about the impact of monetary tightening, compounded by...

John-Paul Smith

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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