Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Plunging Global Liquidity can explain a lot and not least flattening yield curves and skidding equity prices</li>
<li>Digging deeper, bond term premia data signal upcoming US recession and further confirm the yield curve slope’s bearish message</li>
<li>US interest rates have likely peaked, judging from how term premia typically perform over time</li>
<li>US yield curve should steepen through 2019, indicating easier liquidity conditions and paving the way for a market rebound later next year</li>
<li>
Asian markets may bottom earlier, given possible USD weakness, so marking this out as an ‘average’ length bear market
 
</li>
</ul>


Plunging Global Liquidity can explain a lot and not least flattening yield curves and skidding equity prices
Digging deeper, bond term premia data signal upcoming US recession and further confirm the yield curve slope’s bearish message
US interest rates have likely peaked, judging from how term premia typically perform over time
US yield curve should steepen through 2019, indicating easier liquidity conditions and paving the way for a market rebound later next year

Asian markets may bottom earlier, given possible USD weakness, so marking this out as an ‘average’ length bear market
 



Does The Flat US Yield Curve Really Matter?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Risk aversion on uncertain events from the US-China truce to Brexit and various other issues; including the OPEC meeting, and uncertainty over the global economy dominated markets on Tuesday. However, the Fed has softened its tone, the US and China have restarted negotiations,  Pro-EU members of the UK parliament appear to have gained ascendancy, and Italy is trying harder to reach a budget accord with the EU.  There seems more reason for US, UK, EU and Asian asset markets to recover rather than falter.

Risk aversion on uncertain events from the US-China truce to Brexit and various other issues; including the OPEC meeting, and uncertainty over the global economy dominated markets on Tuesday. However, the Fed has softened its tone, the US and China have restarted negotiations,  Pro-EU members of the UK parliament appear to have gained ascendancy, and Italy is trying harder to reach a budget accord with the EU.  There seems more reason for US, UK, EU and Asian asset markets to recover rather than falter.

Pro-EU Side Gains Ascendancy in UK Parliament

<ul>
<li>US dollar has been weaponized by Trump Administration</li>
<li>US trade policy resembles pattern of attack on Japan in 1980s
</li>
<li>China will avoid revaluation of Yuan, but will be forced to agree trade deal
</li>
<li>
Europe is next in-line for attack. US likely want to enforce US dollar supremacy
</li>
<li>Unravelling of US$4 trillion of capital flows from the US could help to make the US dollar more competitive
</li>
</ul>


US dollar has been weaponized by Trump Administration
US trade policy resembles pattern of attack on Japan in 1980s

China will avoid revaluation of Yuan, but will be forced to agree trade deal


Europe is next in-line for attack. US likely want to enforce US dollar supremacy

Unravelling of US$4 trillion of capital flows from the US could help to make the US dollar more competitive



Post-G20, The US Dollar Is Armed And Pointed At Europe For 2019. Could Capital Flows Be The Trigger?

Notably missing from Carida’s text was any reference to tariff policy, global economic moderation, or a tightening in US financial conditions related to weaker stocks and wider credit spreads in recent months. Nor was there any deeper dive into recent economic data, some of which, like housing data, have moderated.Clarida left this for others to shed more light on; including, potentially, Powell on Wednesday.  Overall not a very enlightening speech.  It appeared to be an attempt to remain neutral and follow the led from his captain - Powell.There were some dovish elements to suggest he might support a slower pace of hikes, and be amenable to an extended pause.  He noted inflation expectations were a bit low and the potential for more labour force growth, suggesting he has little fear of inflation rising sustainably above target, even if the economy were to continue to grow above potential for some time.

Notably missing from Carida’s text was any reference to tariff policy, global economic moderation, or a tightening in US financial conditions related to weaker stocks and wider credit spreads in recent months. Nor was there any deeper dive into recent economic data, some of which, like housing data, have moderated.Clarida left this for others to shed more light on; including, potentially, Powell on Wednesday.  Overall not a very enlightening speech.  It appeared to be an attempt to remain neutral and follow the led from his captain - Powell.There were some dovish elements to suggest he might support a slower pace of hikes, and be amenable to an extended pause.  He noted inflation expectations were a bit low and the potential for more labour force growth, suggesting he has little fear of inflation rising sustainably above target, even if the economy were to continue to grow above potential for some time.

Clarida Puts the Ball in Powell’s Court, but Amenable to a Pause

A Fed pause, if not a peak, may be coming into view.  Financial conditions in the US are tightening up, and the Fed Chair and Vice Chair expressed more caution last week.  They suggested that rate hikes are no longer on auto-pilot, but are more dependent on data and financial market conditions.  With the increased flexibility of a press conference at every FOMC meeting from now on, there is more scope to pause without confusing the market or making a policy mistake.  We should not assume that a December hike is a done deal given recent market turmoil spreading to US credit markets.  The USD has lost strength since last week and may be more sensitive to prospects of fewer hikes ahead.

A Fed pause, if not a peak, may be coming into view.  Financial conditions in the US are tightening up, and the Fed Chair and Vice Chair expressed more caution last week.  They suggested that rate hikes are no longer on auto-pilot, but are more dependent on data and financial market conditions.  With the increased flexibility of a press conference at every FOMC meeting from now on, there is more scope to pause without confusing the market or making a policy mistake.  We should not assume that a December hike is a done deal given recent market turmoil spreading to US credit markets.  The USD has lost strength since last week and may be more sensitive to prospects of fewer hikes ahead.

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Does The Flat US Yield Curve Really Matter?

Plunging Global Liquidity can explain a lot and not least flattening yield curves and skidding equity prices Digging deeper, bond term premia data...

Michael J. Howell

Pro-EU Side Gains Ascendancy in UK Parliament

Risk aversion on uncertain events from the US-China truce to Brexit and various other issues; including the OPEC meeting, and uncertainty over the...

Greg Gibbs

Post-G20, The US Dollar Is Armed And Pointed At Europe For 2019. Could Capital Flows Be The Trigger?

US dollar has been weaponized by Trump Administration US trade policy resembles pattern of attack on Japan in 1980s China will avoid revaluation...

Michael J. Howell

Clarida Puts the Ball in Powell’s Court, but Amenable to a Pause

Notably missing from Carida’s text was any reference to tariff policy, global economic moderation, or a tightening in US financial conditions...

Greg Gibbs

Fed Rate Pause in View

A Fed pause, if not a peak, may be coming into view. Financial conditions in the US are tightening up, and the Fed Chair and Vice Chair expressed...

Greg Gibbs

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