FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The strength in the USD in recent weeks belies what appears to be a run of poor economic reports pointing to a significant slowdown in Q1, possible stalling.</li>
<li>The US trade data suggest that US exporters have suffered a significant slowdown, as bad, or even worse than many other countries.</li>
<li>US employment indicators show that tightness in the labor market appears to have eased in recent months.</li>
<li>The risks appear somewhat tilted towards a softer than expected payrolls report on Friday.</li>
<li>The Fed has more capacity to ease and the hurdle for a hike has got much higher.</li>
<li>On the eve of the ECB meeting, where the EUR appears to have fallen in anticipation of weaker staff projections, and some possible tweaks towards easing, it is worth noting that risk metrics have moved in favour of the EUR recently.</li>
</ul>


The strength in the USD in recent weeks belies what appears to be a run of poor economic reports pointing to a significant slowdown in Q1, possible stalling.
The US trade data suggest that US exporters have suffered a significant slowdown, as bad, or even worse than many other countries.
US employment indicators show that tightness in the labor market appears to have eased in recent months.
The risks appear somewhat tilted towards a softer than expected payrolls report on Friday.
The Fed has more capacity to ease and the hurdle for a hike has got much higher.
On the eve of the ECB meeting, where the EUR appears to have fallen in anticipation of weaker staff projections, and some possible tweaks towards easing, it is worth noting that risk metrics have moved in favour of the EUR recently.


US Economic Deterioration a Risk for the Dollar

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>Widely held view that Chinese eased ‘massively’ in January 2019 – it did NOT</li>
<li>According to latest daily Open Market Operations little change through February</li>
<li>Liquidity matters hugely (China contributes around one-fifth of Global Liquidity)</li>
<li>We still expect PBoC easing over coming weeks and continue to favour Chinese markets</li>
</ul>


Widely held view that Chinese eased ‘massively’ in January 2019 – it did NOT
According to latest daily Open Market Operations little change through February
Liquidity matters hugely (China contributes around one-fifth of Global Liquidity)
We still expect PBoC easing over coming weeks and continue to favour Chinese markets


’Fake News’ Threatens China’s Rally

The surge in Chinese equities, leading a broader rebound in emerging market assets is significant and hard to ignore.  The AUD has significantly lagged the rebound in risk appetite indicators, including copper, other commodity and Asian currencies.  Fears over Australia’s housing market have dominated recent developments, but labour market indicators suggest the RBA will be in no hurry to cut rates.  US real yields have fallen significantly since their peak in November last year and may reflect recent evidence of weaker economic activity.  Prominent Fed members suggest the Fed may be moving to target average inflation, paving the way for lower US rates and a weaker USD outlook.

The surge in Chinese equities, leading a broader rebound in emerging market assets is significant and hard to ignore.  The AUD has significantly lagged the rebound in risk appetite indicators, including copper, other commodity and Asian currencies.  Fears over Australia’s housing market have dominated recent developments, but labour market indicators suggest the RBA will be in no hurry to cut rates.  US real yields have fallen significantly since their peak in November last year and may reflect recent evidence of weaker economic activity.  Prominent Fed members suggest the Fed may be moving to target average inflation, paving the way for lower US rates and a weaker USD outlook.

US Real Yields Fall, and the Fed Wants Higher Inflation

<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity contracted at annualised rate of 8.2% last week</li>
<li>China's PBoC doubling-down on tightening by shrinking balance sheet at annualised minus 15.8%</li>
<li>
Bank of Japan same tightening message</li>
<li>Conclusion: this could be a bear market rally</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity contracted at annualised rate of 8.2% last week
China's PBoC doubling-down on tightening by shrinking balance sheet at annualised minus 15.8%

Bank of Japan same tightening message
Conclusion: this could be a bear market rally


China Delivers A Chill Warning As World Central Banks Continue The Freeze

The Fed’s newfound sensitivity to global economic and financial market risks has boosted global asset markets and softened the USD.  These moves may be limited by the still substantial global uncertainty over US trade policy, surprisingly weak economic data in Europe and China, tensions surrounding US legal action against Huawei, tech sector headwinds, Brexit, and a more toxic US political environment.  However, we would not be surprised to see a period of weaker USD trading unfold, especially if the US administration and China see progress in trade talks this week.

The Fed’s newfound sensitivity to global economic and financial market risks has boosted global asset markets and softened the USD.  These moves may be limited by the still substantial global uncertainty over US trade policy, surprisingly weak economic data in Europe and China, tensions surrounding US legal action against Huawei, tech sector headwinds, Brexit, and a more toxic US political environment.  However, we would not be surprised to see a period of weaker USD trading unfold, especially if the US administration and China see progress in trade talks this week.

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

US Economic Deterioration a Risk for the Dollar

The strength in the USD in recent weeks belies what appears to be a run of poor economic reports pointing to a significant slowdown in Q1,...

Greg Gibbs

’Fake News’ Threatens China’s Rally

Widely held view that Chinese eased ‘massively’ in January 2019 – it did NOT According to latest daily Open Market Operations little change...

Michael J. Howell

US Real Yields Fall, and the Fed Wants Higher Inflation

The surge in Chinese equities, leading a broader rebound in emerging market assets is significant and hard to ignore. The AUD has significantly...

Greg Gibbs

China Delivers A Chill Warning As World Central Banks Continue The Freeze

Global Liquidity contracted at annualised rate of 8.2% last week China's PBoC doubling-down on tightening by shrinking balance sheet at...

Michael J. Howell

Fed Completes Its Come-Down

The Fed’s newfound sensitivity to global economic and financial market risks has boosted global asset markets and softened the USD. These moves...

Greg Gibbs

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