Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

After the clean-out following the last FOMC we seem to be settling into a situation of lower long end bond yields, and a stable to, now, bearish looking USD.
The combination of lower long end yields and a lower USD in the short term provides a decent backdrop for precious metals to do well. They are all showing signs of life again…

After the clean-out following the last FOMC we seem to be settling into a situation of lower long end bond yields, and a stable to, now, bearish looking USD.
The combination of lower long end yields and a lower USD in the short term provides a decent backdrop for precious metals to do well. They are all showing signs of life again…

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

<ul>
<li>On June 26, an official with the China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) suggested the coal price rally has run its course and is likely to see downward pressure in July on improved mine supply, higher imports and higher hydro &amp; solar power generation</li>
<li>This followed June 17 NDRC comments that the power crunch has started to ease with the arrival of the rainy season, after extreme tightness in coal availability required power rationing across multiple provinces in May-June for the second time in 6 months</li>
<li>Our text mining suggests reporting on coal shortages and power outages in key provinces peaked in the second week of June and has pulled back since, leading coal equities</li>
<li>With the cryptocurrency mining crackdown freeing up 21% of power supply in Xinjiang, 5% in Sichuan, 4% in Yunnan and 3% in Inner Mongolia, it appears the NDRC's near-term coal guidance may be credible</li>
<li>Ahead of Friday's June Non-Farm Payrolls release, we see outright declines in US reporting on labor shortages, signs of sequential improvement in temp employment, and renewed momentum in job postings</li>
<li>In Europe, we see continued elevated sentiment on the labor market, but reports of labor shortages are starting to surface; this week, the German IAB Labor Barometer, based on a survey of staffing agencies, hit its highest level since 2008 inception</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


On June 26, an official with the China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) suggested the coal price rally has run its course and is likely to see downward pressure in July on improved mine supply, higher imports and higher hydro &amp; solar power generation
This followed June 17 NDRC comments that the power crunch has started to ease with the arrival of the rainy season, after extreme tightness in coal availability required power rationing across multiple provinces in May-June for the second time in 6 months
Our text mining suggests reporting on coal shortages and power outages in key provinces peaked in the second week of June and has pulled back since, leading coal equities
With the cryptocurrency mining crackdown freeing up 21% of power supply in Xinjiang, 5% in Sichuan, 4% in Yunnan and 3% in Inner Mongolia, it appears the NDRC's near-term coal guidance may be credible
Ahead of Friday's June Non-Farm Payrolls release, we see outright declines in US reporting on labor shortages, signs of sequential improvement in temp employment, and renewed momentum in job postings
In Europe, we see continued elevated sentiment on the labor market, but reports of labor shortages are starting to surface; this week, the German IAB Labor Barometer, based on a survey of staffing agencies, hit its highest level since 2008 inception
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots:  NDRC Coal "Guidance", NFP Preview, European Labor Strength

In a note titled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bonds-all-charts-lead-to-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52482" rel="noopener">Bonds: All Charts Lead to Me</a> on 3 June 2021, it was suggested that US 30 year yield would make it to 1.90%-1.92% area.That target has now been met. However, fresh developments must be taken into account while trying to determine what happens next.

In a note titled Bonds: All Charts Lead to Me on 3 June 2021, it was suggested that US 30 year yield would make it to 1.90%-1.92% area.That target has now been met. However, fresh developments must be taken into account while trying to determine what happens next.

The breaks lower on Copper and the wider London Metals Exchange Index can now be confirmed.A look at the price action and charts suggest further losses to the tune of 10% from here in both.Perhaps as a consequence, we see an additional break lower on US 30 year yield.Is US 10 year yield to follow?This note is a quick follow up on the price action in markets from the earlier report titled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bonds-all-charts-lead-to-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52482" rel="noopener">Bonds: All Charts Lead to Me</a>

The breaks lower on Copper and the wider London Metals Exchange Index can now be confirmed.A look at the price action and charts suggest further losses to the tune of 10% from here in both.Perhaps as a consequence, we see an additional break lower on US 30 year yield.Is US 10 year yield to follow?This note is a quick follow up on the price action in markets from the earlier report titled Bonds: All Charts Lead to Me 

Commodities & Bonds – The Breaks and the Targets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Recent developments on the S&amp;P 500 Banks Index warns of further short term losses of more than 6% from current levels. The flattening of the US curve has likely played an important role here and that curve flattening may not be over quite yet.

Recent developments on the S&amp;P 500 Banks Index warns of further short term losses of more than 6% from current levels. The flattening of the US curve has likely played an important role here and that curve flattening may not be over quite yet.

US 10Y (USGG10YR INDEX)

Time for Precious Metals to Shine Again

The USD is beginning to come on the back foot again while long end yields refuse to rise. This combination sets the scene for precious metals to...

Shyam Devani

TMI Snapshots: NDRC Coal "Guidance", NFP Preview, European Labor Strength

Our text mining saw media reports of power rationing and coal shortages in China peak in the second week of June in-line with coal equities; the...

Elan Gore

US 30 Year Yield: Target Met, What Next?

The 1.92% target on US 30 year yield has been met. However in the context of recent market developments, there still appears to be the danger of...

Shyam Devani

Commodities & Bonds – The Breaks and the Targets

The recent breaks on both industrial commodities and long end bond yields warrants further attention. These charts highlight target areas in the...

Shyam Devani

S&P 500 Banks Index Breaks Key Levels

The recent correction down on the S&P 500 Banks Index has led to an important break which could see further losses of more than 6% from current...

Shyam Devani