Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fixed Income markets have stabilised after the Fed including the relentless rise in short end (2Y) yields. Short term Bonds are not a sell</li>
<li>Equity markets have also stabilised with positive short term price action while there are too many bears</li>
<li>The USD has stabilised and showing early signs of a slip (ex USDJPY). Watch the price action</li>
</ul>


Fixed Income markets have stabilised after the Fed including the relentless rise in short end (2Y) yields. Short term Bonds are not a sell
Equity markets have also stabilised with positive short term price action while there are too many bears
The USD has stabilised and showing early signs of a slip (ex USDJPY). Watch the price action


Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is a quick note to highlight some of the support levels on US 10 year and 30 year yields</li>
<li>As we go into the FOMC meeting, obviously anything is possible. These references may prove useful IF we are to see any corrections lower or even breaks to the downside </li>
<li>The recent price action on the daily chart however, for whatever it may be work, seems to indicate that we might actually rise in yields</li>
</ul>


This is a quick note to highlight some of the support levels on US 10 year and 30 year yields
As we go into the FOMC meeting, obviously anything is possible. These references may prove useful IF we are to see any corrections lower or even breaks to the downside 
The recent price action on the daily chart however, for whatever it may be work, seems to indicate that we might actually rise in yields


Short Term Levels on US Yields Going into the Fed

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The false breakout in the Russell 2000 (IWM) tells us that the mixed market environment is back, and we no longer see a broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Key supports: 4545 on S&amp;P 500, $383 on NDX (QQQ), $208 on Russell 2000 (IWM), $135 on MicroCaps (IWC), $76.50 on MSCI EAFE (EFA), $54 on MSCI ACWI exUS (ACWX)</li>
<li>If supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. However, if supports start to break we would turn bearish as we would expect a more significant correction.</li>
</ul>


The false breakout in the Russell 2000 (IWM) tells us that the mixed market environment is back, and we no longer see a broad-based bull market.
Key supports: 4545 on S&amp;P 500, $383 on NDX (QQQ), $208 on Russell 2000 (IWM), $135 on MicroCaps (IWC), $76.50 on MSCI EAFE (EFA), $54 on MSCI ACWI exUS (ACWX)
If supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. However, if supports start to break we would turn bearish as we would expect a more significant correction.


U.S. Equity Strategy: Major Indexes Testing Critical Supports; Buying Consumer Discretionary Stocks

This quick note is a follow up to the one sent on 28 October titled “Bond Market Squeeze is not over” where it was suggested that the Long Bond Future could bounce to 163.That target has been met - Friday’s high being 163.04/32.Momentum is now stretched, and resistance levels sit just overhead. It is therefore best to step back from any long Bond positions and wait for further signals.

This quick note is a follow up to the one sent on 28 October titled “Bond Market Squeeze is not over” where it was suggested that the Long Bond Future could bounce to 163.That target has been met - Friday’s high being 163.04/32.Momentum is now stretched, and resistance levels sit just overhead. It is therefore best to step back from any long Bond positions and wait for further signals.

The overnight rise in bond prices has confirmed a short-term break.
It suggests that we may effectively see a repeat of the past 4 sessions – a sharp rise in the Long Bond and a quick fall in long end yields (30Y).
At this juncture it appears to be a short term adjustments in markets rather than anything more concerning.
However, as breakevens remain elevated, real yields are likely to make fresh all-time lows. As highlighted earlier this week, watch out for a breach of support on US 30Y TIPS yields at minus 50 bps. The all-time low on US 10Y TIPS yield was minus 122 bps and is back in sight.
With this in mind, and when coupled with the slip in Bictoin and a still vulnerable looking USD, we must prepare for the possibility of a breakout in Gold through $1,834.

The overnight rise in bond prices has confirmed a short-term break.
It suggests that we may effectively see a repeat of the past 4 sessions – a sharp rise in the Long Bond and a quick fall in long end yields (30Y).
At this juncture it appears to be a short term adjustments in markets rather than anything more concerning.
However, as breakevens remain elevated, real yields are likely to make fresh all-time lows. As highlighted earlier this week, watch out for a breach of support on US 30Y TIPS yields at minus 50 bps. The all-time low on US 10Y TIPS yield was minus 122 bps and is back in sight.
With this in mind, and when coupled with the slip in Bictoin and a still vulnerable looking USD, we must prepare for the possibility of a breakout in Gold through $1,834.

United States

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US 30Y (USGG30YR INDEX)

The MAD Report - Cross Market Analysis

A weekly report looking at price action across major markets. In the short term both a stock market and a bond market squeeze seem possible in the...

Shyam Devani

Short Term Levels on US Yields Going into the Fed

A quick look at the support zone on US 30Y and 10Y yields as we prepare for the FOMC. If anything, a big if, we might be seeing signs of a rise in...

Shyam Devani

U.S. Equity Strategy: Major Indexes Testing Critical Supports; Buying Consumer Discretionary Stocks

Market dynamics have deteriorated along with the major averages, and many are testing critical supports; as long as supports hold we expect more...

Vermilion Research

Bond Market Squeeze: Target Met

The bounce in Bond prices over the past 2 weeks has met its target and a more neutral stance should be adopted at this juncture

Shyam Devani

Bond Market Squeeze Is Not Over

The squeeze in the bond market still has more to go. Lower real yields, a vulnerable USD and weakness in Bitcoin should conspire to support Gold

Shyam Devani