Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder.</li>
<li>Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). </li>
<li>The breakouts happened later that day on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">RSP</a> and Dow (above $153 and 34,280, respectively), and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-russell-2000-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32964:1" rel="noopener">IWM</a> is now on the cusp of breaking out above $199.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder.
Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
The breakouts happened later that day on the RSP and Dow (above $153 and 34,280, respectively), and the IWM is now on the cusp of breaking out above $199.


Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Euro-area flash inflation continued to ease in July to 5.3% y/y in line with BBG consensus, down from 5.5% y/y in June.</li><li>Core inflation remained unchanged at 5.5% y/y (BBG consensus: 5.4% y/y).Service inflation increased to 5.6% y/y in July from 5.4% y/y in June.</li><li>Not something the ECB wants to see as services prices are the most sensitive to wage growth and may be an indication that the labour market remains too tight.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Euro-area flash inflation continued to ease in July to 5.3% y/y in line with BBG consensus, down from 5.5% y/y in June.Core inflation remained unchanged at 5.5% y/y (BBG consensus: 5.4% y/y).Service inflation increased to 5.6% y/y in July from 5.4% y/y in June.Not something the ECB wants to see as services prices are the most sensitive to wage growth and may be an indication that the labour market remains too tight.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Euro-area flash inflation: Higher service inflation

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.</li>
<li>In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.</li>
<li>Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.</li>
</ul>


Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.
In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.
Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.


Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

<ul>
<li>The ECB survey on credit conditions in the Euro area was out last week, and it revealed a small rebound in both the ease of getting credit and the demand for getting credit.</li>
<li>The trends are interestingly slightly weaker in the US SLOOS survey, which is the first hint of a US Economy, which may surprise negatively 2-3 quarters ahead relatively to Europe.</li>
<li>Yes, I see a rate of change move from a very negative number to a slightly less negative number as a positive, as markets care about the rate of change and not nominal levels, even if it means that demand is still subdued.</li>
</ul>


The ECB survey on credit conditions in the Euro area was out last week, and it revealed a small rebound in both the ease of getting credit and the demand for getting credit.
The trends are interestingly slightly weaker in the US SLOOS survey, which is the first hint of a US Economy, which may surprise negatively 2-3 quarters ahead relatively to Europe.
Yes, I see a rate of change move from a very negative number to a slightly less negative number as a positive, as markets care about the rate of change and not nominal levels, even if it means that demand is still subdued.


Credit Watch: If you SLOOS you lose – the 5 best charts from the SLOOS survey

<ul>
<li>The ECB hiked rates by a further 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%.</li>
<li>The wording change in the statement explicitly left open the possibility of not raising rates further, and Lagarde confirmed this change was significant.</li>
<li>We think the ECB is done hiking rates, though future data releases will eventually determine, whether the data-dependent ECB hikes rates further.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The ECB hiked rates by a further 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%.
The wording change in the statement explicitly left open the possibility of not raising rates further, and Lagarde confirmed this change was significant.
We think the ECB is done hiking rates, though future data releases will eventually determine, whether the data-dependent ECB hikes rates further.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ECB Watch: The Peak Is Here or at Least Near

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Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

Expecting Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout Above $199; Many Reasons to be Bullish; $DXY and Treasury Yields $TNX $TYX Remain Below Resistance;...

Vermilion Research

Euro-area flash inflation: Higher service inflation

Euro-area flash inflation continued to ease in July to 5.3% y/y in line with BBG consensus, down from 5.5% y/y in June. Core inflation remained...

Nordea

Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to...

Steno Research

Credit Watch: If you SLOOS you lose – the 5 best charts from the SLOOS survey

The ECB survey on credit conditions in the Euro area was out last week, and it revealed a small rebound in both the ease of getting credit and the...

Steno Research

ECB Watch: The Peak Is Here or at Least Near

The ECB hiked rates by a further 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%.The wording change in the statement explicitly left open the possibility...

Nordea

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