Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>What a week in global fixed income! We thankfully rotated out of bonds and into cyclical exposures in steepeners, commodities, energy and materials ahead of the worst storm and the big question is now whether this is just a “hump” or the start of a broad steepening trend.</li>
<li>In last week’s Portfolio Watch we declared that we anticipated a steepening curve:”Many are urgently discussing the ramifications of the BoJ move to push the band on the YCC.</li>
<li>With equities already looking frothy and volatility being low we may see some reversal near term – or perhaps stonks just carry on their insufferable streak and shorts keep getting wiped out as shares are sold to buy cheap calls.</li>
</ul>


What a week in global fixed income! We thankfully rotated out of bonds and into cyclical exposures in steepeners, commodities, energy and materials ahead of the worst storm and the big question is now whether this is just a “hump” or the start of a broad steepening trend.
In last week’s Portfolio Watch we declared that we anticipated a steepening curve:”Many are urgently discussing the ramifications of the BoJ move to push the band on the YCC.
With equities already looking frothy and volatility being low we may see some reversal near term – or perhaps stonks just carry on their insufferable streak and shorts keep getting wiped out as shares are sold to buy cheap calls.


Portfolio Watch: Steep, Steeper, Steepest!

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>Contrary to expectations following turbulent regional banking events in March, the US economy has surprised to the upside with GDP growth above its potential rate.</li>
<li>The loosening of yield curve control could impact future Japanese participation, but other factors, including US fiscal and monetary policy conduct and exchange rate movements, will also play important roles. </li>
<li>The US Treasury has announced ambitious borrowing plans for 2023 H2, thereby raising concerns about the financial system's ability to easily absorb high debt issuance. </li>
</ul>


Contrary to expectations following turbulent regional banking events in March, the US economy has surprised to the upside with GDP growth above its potential rate.
The loosening of yield curve control could impact future Japanese participation, but other factors, including US fiscal and monetary policy conduct and exchange rate movements, will also play important roles. 
The US Treasury has announced ambitious borrowing plans for 2023 H2, thereby raising concerns about the financial system's ability to easily absorb high debt issuance. 


US Treasuries Outlook: Economic and Policy Risks Remain, While Market Functionality Faces Challenges

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

The IMF has revised up its 2023 global economic growth forecast despite noting continued challenges. The International Monetary Fund has slightly revised up its 2023 global growth forecast in its latest report. Despite noting strong first-quarter economic activity, the Fed warned that persistent obstacles were clouding the medium-term picture. Compared with the projections that the IMF made in April, global real GDP growth is predicted to reach 3.0% in 2023, higher by 0.2 p.p, yet with its 2024 forecast unchanged at 3.0%. Global headline inflation should fall to 6.8% in 2023 (2022: 8.7%), then to 5.2% in 2024, but core inflation will moderate more gradually, reaching 6.0% in 2023 (2022: 6.5%) and then 4.7% in 2024. The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation has reined in economic growth this year.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The IMF has revised up its 2023 global economic growth forecast despite noting continued challenges. The International Monetary Fund has slightly revised up its 2023 global growth forecast in its latest report. Despite noting strong first-quarter economic activity, the Fed warned that persistent obstacles were clouding the medium-term picture. Compared with the projections that the IMF made in April, global real GDP growth is predicted to reach 3.0% in 2023, higher by 0.2 p.p, yet with its 2024 forecast unchanged at 3.0%. Global headline inflation should fall to 6.8% in 2023 (2022: 8.7%), then to 5.2% in 2024, but core inflation will moderate more gradually, reaching 6.0% in 2023 (2022: 6.5%) and then 4.7% in 2024. The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation has reined in economic growth this year.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research Monthly Report, Jul 2023

<ul>
<li>In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention.</li>
<li>This week we look at four reasons why the curve steepener is now the trend to watch! There are four reasons for the USD curve steepening now</li>
<li>The issuance profile will move towards longer durations, the BoJ decision has decreased Japanese incentives to buy USTs, the Manufacturing rebound will add to steepening pressures, positioning is already loaded with duration</li>
</ul>


In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention.
This week we look at four reasons why the curve steepener is now the trend to watch! There are four reasons for the USD curve steepening now
The issuance profile will move towards longer durations, the BoJ decision has decreased Japanese incentives to buy USTs, the Manufacturing rebound will add to steepening pressures, positioning is already loaded with duration


Out of the Box #14: 4 Reasons Why Curve Steepening Is Now on the Cards

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Portfolio Watch: Steep, Steeper, Steepest!

What a week in global fixed income! We thankfully rotated out of bonds and into cyclical exposures in steepeners, commodities, energy and...

Steno Research

US Treasuries Outlook: Economic and Policy Risks Remain, While Market Functionality Faces Challenges

US Treasuries face uncertain times due to economic and policy risks, while market functionality has become problematic. Balance sheet constraints...

DeSaque Macro Research

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

BRI Danareksa Debt Research Monthly Report, Jul 2023

The IMF has revised up its 2023 global economic growth forecast despite noting continued challenges. The US economy grew faster than expected in...

BRI Danareksa Research

Out of the Box #14: 4 Reasons Why Curve Steepening Is Now on the Cards

In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action...

Steno Research

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