Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We spent most of last week examining cycle leads and lags as we continue to observe solid signs of re-acceleration in economies with low duration profiles and high sensitivities to interest rates and exports.</li><li>The Riksbank in Sweden, the BoC in Canada, and partially the ECB in Europe have all cut interest rates amidst an already improving cyclical environment.</li><li>We are already starting to see the positive ripple effects.</li></ul>

We spent most of last week examining cycle leads and lags as we continue to observe solid signs of re-acceleration in economies with low duration profiles and high sensitivities to interest rates and exports.The Riksbank in Sweden, the BoC in Canada, and partially the ECB in Europe have all cut interest rates amidst an already improving cyclical environment.We are already starting to see the positive ripple effects.

Steno Signals #106 – The cycle is improving. Not weakening.

<ul><li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, brought to you today from a sunny Copenhagen.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The standings at the Euros almost perfectly mirror the current cross-regional uncertainties in equity markets. </span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The European election has increased the option-implied volatility premium of European equities compared to US equities, while the FTSE 100 continues to stay “less volatile” in IV terms. </span></li></ul>

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, brought to you today from a sunny Copenhagen.The standings at the Euros almost perfectly mirror the current cross-regional uncertainties in equity markets. The European election has increased the option-implied volatility premium of European equities compared to US equities, while the FTSE 100 continues to stay “less volatile” in IV terms. 

Positioning Watch – Markets are buying into US Fixed Income, but fast money don’t agree

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).</li>
<li>The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.</li>
<li>If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).
The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.
If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership


Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.</li>
<li>Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).</li>
<li>Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.</li>
</ul>


Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.
Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).
Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The sudden deflation in the Motor Vehicle Insurance component in the CPI report removed 0.05-0.06 pct.</li><li>points from overall MoM price pressures in May compared to the report in April, where the same category rose 1.5% on the month.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The sudden deflation in the Motor Vehicle Insurance component in the CPI report removed 0.05-0.06 pct.points from overall MoM price pressures in May compared to the report in April, where the same category rose 1.5% on the month.

Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds are leaning towards increasing growth, but NOT inflation

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Steno Signals #106 – The cycle is improving. Not weakening.

We spent most of last week examining cycle leads and lags as we continue to observe solid signs of re-acceleration in economies with low duration...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Markets are buying into US Fixed Income, but fast money don’t agree

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, brought to you today from a sunny Copenhagen. Denmark advanced as the second team in their Euros...

Steno Research

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Bullish Outlook Intact; Expecting Short-term Support at $SPX 5370-5380 and $QQQ $468-469 (20-day MAs...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds are leaning towards increasing growth, but NOT inflation

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The sudden deflation in the Motor Vehicle Insurance component in the CPI report...

Steno Research

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