Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The reference period for the trading data used for the index selection ended on 31st October 2022.</li>
<li>There have been a couple of key revisions to the index selection methodologies for SENSEX and SENSEX Next 50 which could have important consequences.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the December 2022 Rebalance.
The reference period for the trading data used for the index selection ended on 31st October 2022.
There have been a couple of key revisions to the index selection methodologies for SENSEX and SENSEX Next 50 which could have important consequences.


S&P BSE/​Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>United Spirits: UNSP posted a beat on our estimates, led by strong performance in P&amp;A segment</li><li>Net revenue was up 18% YoY (9% on three-year CAGR), led by P&amp;A, which was up 23% YoY (15% three-year CAGR; a much-improved CAGR than seen in recent years)</li><li>P&amp;A volume, at 13mn cases, was up 14% YoY (6% three-year CAGR) vs HSIE’s 11.2mn cases</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United Spirits: UNSP posted a beat on our estimates, led by strong performance in P&amp;A segmentNet revenue was up 18% YoY (9% on three-year CAGR), led by P&amp;A, which was up 23% YoY (15% three-year CAGR; a much-improved CAGR than seen in recent years)P&amp;A volume, at 13mn cases, was up 14% YoY (6% three-year CAGR) vs HSIE’s 11.2mn casesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: United Spirits, Multi Commodity Exchange

<ul><li>Volume weakness to continue, revenue to grow by 15/10% on YoY/three-year CAGR (weak ex-ITC): Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/15% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY23 (vs 12/7% in Q2FY22 and 24/11% in Q1FY23)</li><li>ITC’s strong reported growth will drive the aggregate growth for Q2FY23, ex-ITC we expect overall weakness in volume</li><li>Demand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the retail inflation (particular in rural).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Volume weakness to continue, revenue to grow by 15/10% on YoY/three-year CAGR (weak ex-ITC): Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/15% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY23 (vs 12/7% in Q2FY22 and 24/11% in Q1FY23)ITC’s strong reported growth will drive the aggregate growth for Q2FY23, ex-ITC we expect overall weakness in volumeDemand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the retail inflation (particular in rural).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Growth and margin to remain under pressure

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The reference period for the trading data used for the index selection ends on 31st October 2022.</li>
<li>At present, I see one change for SENSEX, three changes for BSE 100, and six changes for BSE 200. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the December 2022 Rebalance.
The reference period for the trading data used for the index selection ends on 31st October 2022.
At present, I see one change for SENSEX, three changes for BSE 100, and six changes for BSE 200. 


S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Adani Names with F&O Question Marks Still in the Race

<ul><li>Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22)</li><li>Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural)</li><li>Thereby, the industry is witnessing a similar volume decline in Q1FY23 as seen in Q4FY22.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22)Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural)Thereby, the industry is witnessing a similar volume decline in Q1FY23 as seen in Q4FY22.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

India

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

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United Spirits (UNSP IN)

S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index

I see one change for SENSEX, 3 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100, 5 ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200, and 13 ADDs/DELs for the BSE 500. I expect the potential ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSIE Results Daily: United Spirits, Multi Commodity Exchange

Net revenue was up 18% YoY (9% on three-year CAGR), led by P&A, which was up 23% YoY (15% three-year CAGR; a much-improved CAGR than seen in recent...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Growth and margin to remain under pressure

Demand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the...

HDFC Securities

S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Adani Names with F&O Question Marks Still in the Race

Tata Motors could be a SENSEX ADD while Dr Reddy's could be a SENSEX DEL. There are multiple ADANI names with no derivative market linkage with...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural). Thereby, the industry is...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P BSE/​Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index

I see one change for SENSEX, 3 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100, 5 ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200, and 13 ADDs/DELs for the BSE 500. I expect the potential ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSIE Results Daily: United Spirits, Multi Commodity Exchange

Net revenue was up 18% YoY (9% on three-year CAGR), led by P&A, which was up 23% YoY (15% three-year CAGR; a much-improved CAGR than seen in recent...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Growth and margin to remain under pressure

Demand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the...

HDFC Securities

S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Adani Names with F&O Question Marks Still in the Race

Tata Motors could be a SENSEX ADD while Dr Reddy's could be a SENSEX DEL. There are multiple ADANI names with no derivative market linkage with...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural). Thereby, the industry is...

HDFC Securities

S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index