Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In an attempt to cover more companies, we shift gears from individual companies to sectoral analysis, focusing on alcoholic beverages in this insight.</li>
<li>Companies in focus are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-spirits-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5146:1" rel="noopener">United Spirits (UNSP IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/radico-khaitan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20842:1" rel="noopener">Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sula-vineyards-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36206:1" rel="noopener">Sula Vineyards (SULA IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-breweries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18080:1" rel="noopener">United Breweries (UBBL IN)</a>. </li>
<li>UNSP remains the best among the pack in terms of earnings quality, and SULA occupies the other extreme. RDCK is chasing growth, and UBBL is facing challenges. </li>
</ul>


In an attempt to cover more companies, we shift gears from individual companies to sectoral analysis, focusing on alcoholic beverages in this insight.
Companies in focus are United Spirits (UNSP IN), Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN) , Sula Vineyards (SULA IN) &amp; United Breweries (UBBL IN). 
UNSP remains the best among the pack in terms of earnings quality, and SULA occupies the other extreme. RDCK is chasing growth, and UBBL is facing challenges. 


Narrative and Numbers | Alcoholic Beverages | FY24

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allied-blenders-distillers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36090:1" rel="noopener">Allied Blenders &amp; Distillers</a>' recent IPO spotlighted India's alcoholic beverage sector, which bucks global trends with strong volume and value growth.</li>
<li>India is the third largest alcoholic beverage market globally, and the second largest for spirits. It is projected to grow at a CAGR of more than 10% over the near-term.</li>
<li>Incumbent players in this highly regulated sector can benefit from strong market moats and evolving growth opportunities if they can effectively navigate the highly regulated business  environment.</li>
</ul>



Allied Blenders &amp; Distillers' recent IPO spotlighted India's alcoholic beverage sector, which bucks global trends with strong volume and value growth.
India is the third largest alcoholic beverage market globally, and the second largest for spirits. It is projected to grow at a CAGR of more than 10% over the near-term.
Incumbent players in this highly regulated sector can benefit from strong market moats and evolving growth opportunities if they can effectively navigate the highly regulated business  environment.


India Alcoholic Beverages: Growing in Pints And Quarts. IPO Adds a Valuation Kick

Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is a strong probability that the proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and the UK might be closed next month.</li>
<li>FTA could be a game changer for the Indian Liquor Industry with a possibility of sharp reduction in customs duty. Additionally, it can open new export avenues for domestic companies.</li>
<li>Beneficiaries may include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-spirits-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5146:1" rel="noopener">United Spirits (UNSP IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pernod-ricard-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21533:1" rel="noopener">Pernod Ricard Sa (RI FP)</a>, and also Indian companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globus-spirits-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15728:1" rel="noopener">Globus Spirits (GBSL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/radico-khaitan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20842:1" rel="noopener">Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN)</a>
</li>
</ul>


There is a strong probability that the proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and the UK might be closed next month.
FTA could be a game changer for the Indian Liquor Industry with a possibility of sharp reduction in customs duty. Additionally, it can open new export avenues for domestic companies.
Beneficiaries may include United Spirits (UNSP IN) and Pernod Ricard Sa (RI FP), and also Indian companies like Globus Spirits (GBSL IN) and Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN)



India-UK FTA: Can Be Game-Changer for Liquor Industry

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 19 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. All names are exactly in line with our forecast.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 64.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 72.7bn (US$857m). There are 18 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have continued to outperform the deletes even after the end of the review period. There could be further upside heading into year-end and implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 19 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. All names are exactly in line with our forecast.
Estimated one-way turnover is 64.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 72.7bn (US$857m). There are 18 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes even after the end of the review period. There could be further upside heading into year-end and implementation of the changes.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 38 Changes; 65% Turnover; US$1.7bn Trade

<ul>
<li>There could be 19 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. There are some stocks from the new F&amp;O inclusions.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 65.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 71bn (US$837m).</li>
<li>The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of July. The pace picked up over the last month as we neared the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


There could be 19 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. There are some stocks from the new F&amp;O inclusions.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 65.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 71bn (US$837m).
The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of July. The pace picked up over the last month as we neared the end of the review period.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 65% One-Way Turnover and US$1.6bn Trade

India

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

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United Spirits (UNSP IN)

Narrative and Numbers | Alcoholic Beverages | FY24

United Spirits leads in earnings quality while Sula Vineyards lags behind, Radico Khaitan pursues growth, and United Breweries encounters challenges.

Pranav Bhavsar

India Alcoholic Beverages: Growing in Pints And Quarts. IPO Adds a Valuation Kick

India's alcoholic beverage sector has delivered strong volume and value growth as well as attractive shareholder returns. Know the fundamentals and...

Devi Subhakesan

India-UK FTA: Can Be Game-Changer for Liquor Industry

The FTA can be a game changer for the Indian Liquor Industry, as customs duty might be slashed sharply. It can open up new avenues for exports for...

Nitin Mangal

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 38 Changes; 65% Turnover; US$1.7bn Trade

There are 19 changes a side and all names are in line with our forecast. Estimated one-way turnover is 64.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 65% One-Way Turnover and US$1.6bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in December. One-way turnover is estimated at 65.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 71bn (US$837m). The...

Brian Freitas

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