Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The trade remains Long Nifty with a watch on earnings. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infosys-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:267:1" rel="noopener">Infosys Ltd (INFO IN)</a> reported a beat on revenues and a miss on EPS, heading into seasonally weak quarters is the pain now consensus? </li>
<li>Other names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4627:1" rel="noopener">Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The trade remains Long Nifty with a watch on earnings. 

Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) reported a beat on revenues and a miss on EPS, heading into seasonally weak quarters is the pain now consensus? 
Other names discussed include Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN), HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN). 


[Week 7] Namaste India 🙏 | Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) | Seasonal Sluggishness Now Consensus

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 6/10% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)</li><li>The demand trend has remained stable during the quarter, mirroring the trends in Q1FY24</li><li>Rural recovery remained below expectations due to high food prices and below-normal rainfall</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 6/10% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)The demand trend has remained stable during the quarter, mirroring the trends in Q1FY24Rural recovery remained below expectations due to high food prices and below-normal rainfallContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev -  Slow Demand Recovery, Margin Expansion to Continue

<ul><li>The HSIE consumer index sales grew by 9% YoY in Q1FY24 (+36% in Q1FY23 on a low base, +13% in Q4FY23)</li><li>On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 15% growth in Q1FY24 with QSR/Paints growing ahead of our index (35/15%) in Q1FY24</li><li>Home Care/F&amp;B/Footwear grew in double digits (13/11/11%), while Oral Care/OTC FMCG/Cigarette/BPC underperformed, below the aggregate at 7% each.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The HSIE consumer index sales grew by 9% YoY in Q1FY24 (+36% in Q1FY23 on a low base, +13% in Q4FY23)On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 15% growth in Q1FY24 with QSR/Paints growing ahead of our index (35/15%) in Q1FY24Home Care/F&amp;B/Footwear grew in double digits (13/11/11%), while Oral Care/OTC FMCG/Cigarette/BPC underperformed, below the aggregate at 7% each.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG: Rural recovery insight, margin recovery to sustain

<ul><li>UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 9,305 (16.5x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)</li><li>We continue to like UTCEM for its robust growth and margin outlook and balance sheet management</li><li>It delivered strong 20% YoY volume growth YoY (grey 20%, white/putty 12%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 9,305 (16.5x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)We continue to like UTCEM for its robust growth and margin outlook and balance sheet managementIt delivered strong 20% YoY volume growth YoY (grey 20%, white/putty 12%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, United Spirits, Mphasis, Persistent Systems, Dalmia Bharat

India

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

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United Spirits (UNSP IN)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

[Week 7] Namaste India 🙏 | Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) | Seasonal Sluggishness Now Consensus

The trade remains long Nifty. Names discussed include INFO, DMART, DELTACORP and HDFCAMC. The next two weeks are going to be busy as the full...

Pranav Bhavsar

FMCG & Alco Bev - Slow Demand Recovery, Margin Expansion to Continue

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)

HDFC Securities

FMCG: Rural recovery insight, margin recovery to sustain

On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 15% growth in Q1FY24 with QSR/Paints growing ahead of our index (35/15%) in Q1FY24

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, United Spirits, Mphasis, Persistent Systems, Dalmia Bharat

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 9,305 (16.5x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

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Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

[Week 7] Namaste India 🙏 | Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) | Seasonal Sluggishness Now Consensus

The trade remains long Nifty. Names discussed include INFO, DMART, DELTACORP and HDFCAMC. The next two weeks are going to be busy as the full...

Pranav Bhavsar

FMCG & Alco Bev - Slow Demand Recovery, Margin Expansion to Continue

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)

HDFC Securities

FMCG: Rural recovery insight, margin recovery to sustain

On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 15% growth in Q1FY24 with QSR/Paints growing ahead of our index (35/15%) in Q1FY24

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, United Spirits, Mphasis, Persistent Systems, Dalmia Bharat

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 9,305 (16.5x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...