IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.</li>
<li>The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. </li>
<li>The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.</li>
</ul>



Olam Group (OLG SP) has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.
The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. 
The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.


Olam Group (OLG SP): EGM on 29 March Another Step to Realize Value

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back in February 2022, automotive aftermarket parts provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bapcor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8433:1" rel="noopener">Bapcor Ltd (BAP AU)</a> was  reportedly subject to multiple buyout proposals. BGH Capital, Quadrant, and Pacific Equity Partners were touted.</li>
<li>That all came to nought. Shares drifted sideways. Then down. Shares touched a four year low late last month.</li>
<li>After the incoming CEO<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240430/pdf/0630hql9xlj18j.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> had a change of heart</a>, and weaker <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240502/pdf/0634w18ywk8fdp.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FY24E guidance</a>, Bain has now tabled a cheeky A$5.40/share indicative Offer. That won't fly; but value is evidently emerging. </li>
</ul>


Back in February 2022, automotive aftermarket parts provider Bapcor Ltd (BAP AU) was  reportedly subject to multiple buyout proposals. BGH Capital, Quadrant, and Pacific Equity Partners were touted.
That all came to nought. Shares drifted sideways. Then down. Shares touched a four year low late last month.
After the incoming CEO had a change of heart, and weaker FY24E guidance, Bain has now tabled a cheeky A$5.40/share indicative Offer. That won't fly; but value is evidently emerging. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP)</a>, the controlling shareholder of department store operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6762:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Singapore (ISET SP)</a>, is offering $7.20/share, by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>That's a whopping 153.5% premium to last close. And a 178.9% premium to ISET's NAV (as at 31 Dec 2023). </li>
<li>Apart from Mitsukoshi's 52.73% stake, no other shareholder has &gt;5%. This is a done deal. But why the large premium?</li>
</ul>



Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP), the controlling shareholder of department store operator Isetan Singapore (ISET SP), is offering $7.20/share, by way of a Scheme.
That's a whopping 153.5% premium to last close. And a 178.9% premium to ISET's NAV (as at 31 Dec 2023). 
Apart from Mitsukoshi's 52.73% stake, no other shareholder has &gt;5%. This is a done deal. But why the large premium?


Isetan Singapore (ISET SP): Mitsukoshi's BIGLY Premium Offer

<ul>
<li>Back in mid-June, hotel and investment property play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amara-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2692:1" rel="noopener">Amara Holdings (AMA SP)</a> gained 38% over three consecutive days on news of a possible Offer from its controlling shareholders.</li>
<li>The Teo family controls ~51% of shares out. No price was mentioned. This development was discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/ZpSRg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Amara Holdings Gains On Possible Offer.</a>
</li>
<li>After shares were halted on the 10th November, Amara has now <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Offer_Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=778029" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a best-and-final unconditional cash Offer at S$0.60/share, a chunky 53.8% to undisturbed and a lifetime high.</li>
</ul>


Back in mid-June, hotel and investment property play Amara Holdings (AMA SP) gained 38% over three consecutive days on news of a possible Offer from its controlling shareholders.
The Teo family controls ~51% of shares out. No price was mentioned. This development was discussed in Amara Holdings Gains On Possible Offer.

After shares were halted on the 10th November, Amara has now announced a best-and-final unconditional cash Offer at S$0.60/share, a chunky 53.8% to undisturbed and a lifetime high.


Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family's Lifetime High Offer

Haitong International Securities Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

Australia

United Malt Group Limited operates in Australia.

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United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)

Olam Group (OLG SP): EGM on 29 March Another Step to Realize Value

The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.

Arun George

Bapcor (BAP AU): Bain Kicks Some Tyres

If you are an arbitrageur, I'd be disinclined to chase this here. If a LO, yes, value is emerging. Yet the profit downgrade and the incoming CEO's...

David Blennerhassett

Isetan Singapore (ISET SP): Mitsukoshi's BIGLY Premium Offer

This should trade tight to terms. I wouldn't be surprised is this was to trade at or above S$7.00/share. I'd be happier to get in below that.

David Blennerhassett

Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family's Lifetime High Offer

This is done. If you got in back in June, hold on and tender when the Offer opens. Or sell in the market. If not in, unless this were to trade wide...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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