ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk</a> remains one of Indonesia's leading dairy companies with a leading 36% market share of the UHT milk market, with Indonesia being one of the lowest consumers in ASEAN.  </li>
<li>The company has seen a strong recovery in its dairy business and will be a key beneficiary of the school meals program in Indonesia, launched this year by President Prabowo.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya</a>'s new distribution centre in MM2100 is now operating with manufacturing to start in 3Q2025, helping to drive longer-term growth. Valuation is attractive versus peer Cimory with growth outlook improving. </li>
</ul>



Ultrajaya Milk remains one of Indonesia's leading dairy companies with a leading 36% market share of the UHT milk market, with Indonesia being one of the lowest consumers in ASEAN.  
The company has seen a strong recovery in its dairy business and will be a key beneficiary of the school meals program in Indonesia, launched this year by President Prabowo.

Ultrajaya's new distribution centre in MM2100 is now operating with manufacturing to start in 3Q2025, helping to drive longer-term growth. Valuation is attractive versus peer Cimory with growth outlook improving. 


Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) - Bringing Milk to the Children

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at ASEAN, ANZ and ADRs. </li>
<li>This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at ASEAN, ANZ and ADRs. 
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.


Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline - ASEAN, ANZ, ADRs

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 8 stocks listed in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February.</li>
<li>There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$50m flow and between 3.5-64x ADV. Positioning is not very high in a lot of the stocks.</li>
<li>Stocks could avoid deletion if they move higher in the next week or two. But increased positioning could keep a lid on that.</li>
</ul>


There are 8 stocks listed in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February.
There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$50m flow and between 3.5-64x ADV. Positioning is not very high in a lot of the stocks.
Stocks could avoid deletion if they move higher in the next week or two. But increased positioning could keep a lid on that.


Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Kantar reported that household spending in Indonesia increased by +7.0% YoY in 3Q24, reaching IDR6 mn (vs IDR5.6 mn in 3Q23), driven by fresh food and FMCG.</li><li>Additionally, value per trip and spending volume also increased by +6.0% YoY and +2.0% YoY, respectively.</li><li>This growth indicates an uptick in consumption, especially among lower and upper-income groups in 3Q24, in line with manageable inflation due to the moderation of key staple prices, such as rice, flour and eggs. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kantar reported that household spending in Indonesia increased by +7.0% YoY in 3Q24, reaching IDR6 mn (vs IDR5.6 mn in 3Q23), driven by fresh food and FMCG.Additionally, value per trip and spending volume also increased by +6.0% YoY and +2.0% YoY, respectively.This growth indicates an uptick in consumption, especially among lower and upper-income groups in 3Q24, in line with manageable inflation due to the moderation of key staple prices, such as rice, flour and eggs. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Sectoral Update December 17, 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>We expect higher minimum wages in FY25 and a positive impact from purchasing power and govt’s meal program to create more jobs.</li><li>We estimate stronger volume growth in FY25, supported by ASP adjustments, to drive FY25F core profit growth of 9.3% yoy.</li><li>We prefer market leaders with opportunities to gain market share and implement ASP adjustment. Maintain Overweight with top pick on ICBP.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect higher minimum wages in FY25 and a positive impact from purchasing power and govt’s meal program to create more jobs.We estimate stronger volume growth in FY25, supported by ASP adjustments, to drive FY25F core profit growth of 9.3% yoy.We prefer market leaders with opportunities to gain market share and implement ASP adjustment. Maintain Overweight with top pick on ICBP.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: FY25 Outlook: Growth Drivers from Supported Purchasing Power and Strategic Pricing

Indonesia

PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk manufactures soaps, detergents, margarine, oil and dairy based foods, tea based beverages, ice cream, and cosmetics.

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Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)

Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) - Bringing Milk to the Children

Ultrajaya has seen a strong recovery in its dairy business in 3Q2024 and will be a key beneficiary of the school meals program in Indonesia,...

Angus Mackintosh

Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline - ASEAN, ANZ, ADRs

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at ASEAN, ANZ and ADRs, after having looked at HK, India,...

Sumeet Singh

Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases

There are 8 Indo, Malay, Thai and Phil stocks that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February. Flow is US$52m-US$123m and impact is 3.5...

Brian Freitas

Consumer Sectoral Update December 17, 2024

Kantar reported that household spending in Indonesia increased by +7.0% YoY in 3Q24, reaching IDR6 mn (vs IDR5.6 mn in 3Q23), driven by fresh food...

MNC Sekuritas

Consumer: FY25 Outlook: Growth Drivers from Supported Purchasing Power and Strategic Pricing

We expect higher minimum wages in FY25 and a positive impact from purchasing power and govt’s meal program to create more jobs.

BRI Danareksa Research

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