Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.</li>
<li>We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225</li>
<li>We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.
We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225
We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities


Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).</li>
<li>The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.</li>
<li>If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).
The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.
If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership


Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The weaker IDR suggests greater possibility of a BI rate hike; however, we note three factors that rate hike is not the ultimate panacea.</li>
<li>The fiscal deficit would surpass 4% if the Debt-to-GDP ratio approaches 48%. More comprehensive fiscal design should result in more clarity.</li>
<li>The DXY is stronger on a weaker Yen as the BoJ delayed providing details of its QT plan. Expect cross currency event risk to prevail in the ST.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The weaker IDR suggests greater possibility of a BI rate hike; however, we note three factors that rate hike is not the ultimate panacea.
The fiscal deficit would surpass 4% if the Debt-to-GDP ratio approaches 48%. More comprehensive fiscal design should result in more clarity.
The DXY is stronger on a weaker Yen as the BoJ delayed providing details of its QT plan. Expect cross currency event risk to prevail in the ST.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Jun 19 , 2024

<ul><li>The weaker IDR suggests greater possibility of a BI rate hike; however, we note three factors that rate hike is not the ultimate panacea.</li><li>The fiscal deficit would surpass 4% if the Debt-to-GDP ratio approaches 48%. More comprehensive fiscal design should result in more clarity.</li><li>The DXY is stronger on a weaker Yen asthe BoJ delayed providing details of its QT plan. Expect cross currency event risk to prevail in the ST.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The weaker IDR suggests greater possibility of a BI rate hike; however, we note three factors that rate hike is not the ultimate panacea.The fiscal deficit would surpass 4% if the Debt-to-GDP ratio approaches 48%. More comprehensive fiscal design should result in more clarity.The DXY is stronger on a weaker Yen asthe BoJ delayed providing details of its QT plan. Expect cross currency event risk to prevail in the ST.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: The Conflation of Currency Risk and Fiscal Frailty

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.</li>
<li>Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).</li>
<li>Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.</li>
</ul>


Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.
Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).
Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight; $Nikkei 225, $TOPIX, TOPIX Small, $DXJ All Breaking Out with 2+ year RS uptrends intact on Nikkei and TOPIX. Still...

Vermilion Research

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Bullish Outlook Intact; Expecting Short-term Support at $SPX 5370-5380 and $QQQ $468-469 (20-day MAs...

Vermilion Research

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Jun 19 , 2024

The DXY is stronger on a weaker Yen as the BoJ delayed providing details of its QT plan. Expect cross currency event risk to prevail in the ST.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: The Conflation of Currency Risk and Fiscal Frailty

The weaker IDR suggests greater possibility of a BI rate hike; however, we note three factors that rate hike is not the ultimate panacea.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

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