Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

In 2011 the world experienced the best year of demand expansion – in US dollar terms – in any year since the financial crisis, until 2018 that is. But you would hardly realise that that was the case by reading the newswires, the stories there since early 2018 have been about ‘synchronised slowdown’ and, in particular, the demand downdraft from China. The reality is that developed countries (the US, EU, UK and Japan) plus developing Asia (China, India and the Asean-4) produced US$4.1trn of ‘new’ GDP demand in 2011 and in 2018 was on course to produce US$4.1trn in new dollar demand.

In 2011 the world experienced the best year of demand expansion – in US dollar terms – in any year since the financial crisis, until 2018 that is. But you would hardly realise that that was the case by reading the newswires, the stories there since early 2018 have been about ‘synchronised slowdown’ and, in particular, the demand downdraft from China. The reality is that developed countries (the US, EU, UK and Japan) plus developing Asia (China, India and the Asean-4) produced US$4.1trn of ‘new’ GDP demand in 2011 and in 2018 was on course to produce US$4.1trn in new dollar demand.

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The USD remains mixed, but gold has developed a persistent uptrend.  This may reflect underlying weakness in the USD and doubts about the state of the global economy.  Its recent rise is at odds with the rebound in global equities, but consistent with lower global yields since the Fed moved to a stable rates outlook late last year.  Gold will face a significant test around its highs of last year, levels that have capped gold since 2013.  It may not be related, but it nevertheless noteworthy that Bitcoin may be showing signs of forming a base.

The USD remains mixed, but gold has developed a persistent uptrend.  This may reflect underlying weakness in the USD and doubts about the state of the global economy.  Its recent rise is at odds with the rebound in global equities, but consistent with lower global yields since the Fed moved to a stable rates outlook late last year.  Gold will face a significant test around its highs of last year, levels that have capped gold since 2013.  It may not be related, but it nevertheless noteworthy that Bitcoin may be showing signs of forming a base.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed.  In our February International Strategy document, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, as well as a technical appraisal of each Sector and the investable opportunities therein.

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed.  In our February International Strategy document, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, as well as a technical appraisal of each Sector and the investable opportunities therein.

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Over and over again we have commented on China’s FX market as a gauge for health of China’s markets. It is not just due to FX trading and rate shifts. It is also because it is easier to spot the PBOC gaming the system in the FX market. And we do believe that right now the PBOC is pushing the CNY away from what the value would be otherwise.

Over and over again we have commented on China’s FX market as a gauge for health of China’s markets. It is not just due to FX trading and rate shifts. It is also because it is easier to spot the PBOC gaming the system in the FX market. And we do believe that right now the PBOC is pushing the CNY away from what the value would be otherwise.

The past year has all been about dollar strength. That is an accepted wisdom. But the truth of the matter is that the dollar averaged 93.6 on the DXY in 2018 (3 January 2018 to 31 December 2018) and, as we write, stands at 95.5. From 1 January 2015 to 1 July 2017 the DXY averaged 97.2. The dollar is not strong, even by recent history standards. Moreover, it is no longer as important as it once was in policy making terms - and neither is the Federal Reserve.

The past year has all been about dollar strength. That is an accepted wisdom. But the truth of the matter is that the dollar averaged 93.6 on the DXY in 2018 (3 January 2018 to 31 December 2018) and, as we write, stands at 95.5. From 1 January 2015 to 1 July 2017 the DXY averaged 97.2. The dollar is not strong, even by recent history standards. Moreover, it is no longer as important as it once was in policy making terms - and neither is the Federal Reserve.

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

US Dollar Demand - Fading Appetite

In 2011 the world experienced the best year of demand expansion – in US dollar terms – in any year since the financial crisis, until 2018 that is....

Dr. Jim Walker

Gold Showing the Way

The USD remains mixed, but gold has developed a persistent uptrend. This may reflect underlying weakness in the USD and doubts about the state of...

Greg Gibbs

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist...

Vermilion Research

PBOC and the CNY Job

Over and over again we have commented on China’s FX market as a gauge for health of China’s markets. It is not just due to FX trading and rate...

Christopher Balding

The Dollar Is Already Dead

The past year has all been about dollar strength. That is an accepted wisdom. But the truth of the matter is that the dollar averaged 93.6 on the...

Dr. Jim Walker

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Market Cap (USDm)

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