Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to the second Great Game of the year.</li><li>What an action-packed start to 2024 we’ve had in geopolitics, and the coming weeks are looking no less eventful.</li><li>This week, we take a look at the status in the Red Sea as well as Taiwan and give our prediction as to what the coming weeks will bring.</li></ul>

Welcome to the second Great Game of the year.What an action-packed start to 2024 we’ve had in geopolitics, and the coming weeks are looking no less eventful.This week, we take a look at the status in the Red Sea as well as Taiwan and give our prediction as to what the coming weeks will bring.

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.</li><li>It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.</li><li>I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.</li></ul>

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul>
<li>In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.</li>
<li>Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.</li>
<li>Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.
Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.
Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index / Technical Analysis

Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index

<ul><li>Dr. Copper has the moniker of the global economy's health as the essential metal used in almost every fixed asset investment (FAI) and manufacturing.</li><li>It remains vital, although I think Nickel is now equally important in our modern-day lives as it is used in alloying, coatings, and batteries.</li><li>Iron ore is significant for China's FAI and much more critical than copper in its growth.</li></ul>

Dr. Copper has the moniker of the global economy's health as the essential metal used in almost every fixed asset investment (FAI) and manufacturing.It remains vital, although I think Nickel is now equally important in our modern-day lives as it is used in alloying, coatings, and batteries.Iron ore is significant for China's FAI and much more critical than copper in its growth.

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.</li>
<li>The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.</li>
<li>High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.</li>
</ul>


The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.
The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.
High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.


Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

Taiwan

The New Taiwan dollar is the official currency of Taiwan

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What’s next in the Red Sea and Taiwan?

Welcome to the second Great Game of the year. What an action-packed start to 2024 we’ve had in geopolitics, and the coming weeks are looking no...

Steno Research

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to...

Steno Research

EM Traffic Light July 2023

In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels. Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are...

Nordea

Dr. Semiconductor

Dr. Copper has the moniker of the global economy's health as the essential metal used in almost every fixed asset investment (FAI) and...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

The Turkish lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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