Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>After a hiatus, we have updated our Travel Tracker to reflect activity through September 11th. </p><p>While average hotel room rates in the region have continued to recover, airport departure activity seems to have stalled after a steady improvement over the Summer. This is true for most locations we track, including the four Mainland Chinese airports that have led the surge in activity since April. Stagnant traffic may simply reflect normal seasonal patterns, however.</p><p>While Chinese domestic travel demand continues to recover, the data suggest that recovery may be taking a breather. And outside of China travel activity remains virtually non-existent. </p>

After a hiatus, we have updated our Travel Tracker to reflect activity through September 11th. While average hotel room rates in the region have continued to recover, airport departure activity seems to have stalled after a steady improvement over the Summer. This is true for most locations we track, including the four Mainland Chinese airports that have led the surge in activity since April. Stagnant traffic may simply reflect normal seasonal patterns, however.While Chinese domestic travel demand continues to recover, the data suggest that recovery may be taking a breather. And outside of China travel activity remains virtually non-existent. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC's Travel Tracker Dashboard (September 11): Room Rates Up, But Air Activity Stalled

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17527:1" rel="noopener">Huazhu Group (HTHT US)</a> plans to raise around US$900m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.</p>
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<p>I have covered the background of the deal in my earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huazhu-hk-secondary-listing-early-look-needs-the-cash-more-than-most-secondary-candidates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Huazhu HK Secondary Listing - Early Look - Needs the Cash More than Most Secondary Candidates.</a></p>
<p>In this insight, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and what to do with the ADR while waiting for the completion of the Hong Kong listing.</p>
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<p></p>
<p><strong>Links to my previous notes on the topic:</strong></p>
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<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yum-china-hk-ipo-trading-index-flows-to-the-rescue" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yum China HK IPO Trading - Index Flows to the Rescue</a></li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yum-china-hk-listing-relatively-bigger-should-offer-a-bigger-discount" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yum China HK Listing - Relatively Bigger, Should Offer a Bigger Discount</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yum-china-hk-listing-early-look-relatively-bigger-deal-should-have-a-relatively-bigger-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yum China HK Listing - Early Look - Relatively Bigger Deal Should Have a Relatively Bigger Impact</a></li>
</ul>
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<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-netease-secondary-listings-what-to-do-with-the-adr-lessons-from-baba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD &amp; NetEase Secondary Listings - What to Do with the ADR? Lessons from Baba</a></li>
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<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-netease-and-other-secondary-listing-index-ftse-msci-hsi-and-hscei-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD, NetEase and Other Secondary Listing - Index (FTSE, MSCI, HSI And HSCEI) Impact</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-com-hk-listing-early-look-getting-the-ball-rolling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD.com HK Listing - Early Look - Getting the Ball Rolling</a></li>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-secondary-listing-early-to-file-but-late-to-launch-puts-it-in-a-peculiar-position" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD Secondary Listing - Early to File but Late to Launch Puts It in a Peculiar Position</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-secondary-listing-behaving-better-than-netease-so-far" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD Secondary Listing - Behaving Better than NetEase, so Far</a></li>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-secondary-trading-update-strong-demand-but-won-t-have-any-index-flows" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD Secondary Trading Update - Strong Demand but Won’t Have Any Index Flows</a></li>
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<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netease-hk-listing-early-look-follow-the-leader" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NetEase HK Listing - Early Look - Follow the Leader</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netease-secondary-listing-relatively-bigger-than-baba-should-offer-relatively-bigger-discount" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NetEase Secondary Listing - Relatively Bigger than Baba, Should Offer Relatively Bigger Discount</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netease-secondary-listing-doing-a-beigene-rather-than-a-baba-risk-reward-shifting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NetEase Secondary Listing - Doing a BeiGene Rather than a Baba, Risk Reward Shifting</a></li>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netease-secondary-trading-update-index-flows-to-provide-near-term-support" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NetEase Secondary Trading Update - Index Flows to Provide near Term Support</a></li>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-the-real-ipo-only-begins-on-the-11th-day-post-listing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​Secondary Listing - The Real IPO Only Begins on the 11th Day Post Listing</a></li>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li dir="ltr">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-proposed-stock-connect-changes-might-throw-a-spanner-in-the-works" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​Secondary Listing - Proposed Stock Connect Changes Might Throw a Spanner in the Works</a></p>
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<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-what-to-do-with-the-us-adr-while-waiting-for-the-hk-listing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​​Secondary Listing - What to Do with the US ADR While Waiting for the HK Listing?</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-not-good-for-the-adr-should-have-put-a-price-range-to-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​​​Secondary Listing -  Not Good for the ADR, Should Have Put a Price Range to It</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-neither-here-not-there-index-announcements-comparison-to-other-deals" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​​​​Secondary -  Neither Here Nor There - Index Announcements, Comparison to Other Deals</a></li>
</ul>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-trading-time-to-converge-that-s-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​​​​​Secondary Listing Trading - Time to Converge, That’s It</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a></li>
</ul>
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Huazhu Group (HTHT US) plans to raise around US$900m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.


I have covered the background of the deal in my earlier note, Huazhu HK Secondary Listing - Early Look - Needs the Cash More than Most Secondary Candidates.
In this insight, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and what to do with the ADR while waiting for the completion of the Hong Kong listing.



Links to my previous notes on the topic:

Yum China HK IPO Trading - Index Flows to the Rescue

Yum China HK Listing - Relatively Bigger, Should Offer a Bigger Discount.
Yum China HK Listing - Early Look - Relatively Bigger Deal Should Have a Relatively Bigger Impact




JD &amp; NetEase Secondary Listings - What to Do with the ADR? Lessons from Baba




JD, NetEase and Other Secondary Listing - Index (FTSE, MSCI, HSI And HSCEI) Impact
JD.com HK Listing - Early Look - Getting the Ball Rolling




JD Secondary Listing - Early to File but Late to Launch Puts It in a Peculiar Position
JD Secondary Listing - Behaving Better than NetEase, so Far




JD Secondary Trading Update - Strong Demand but Won’t Have Any Index Flows




NetEase HK Listing - Early Look - Follow the Leader
NetEase Secondary Listing - Relatively Bigger than Baba, Should Offer Relatively Bigger Discount
NetEase Secondary Listing - Doing a BeiGene Rather than a Baba, Risk Reward Shifting




NetEase Secondary Trading Update - Index Flows to Provide near Term Support




Alibaba IPO/​Secondary Listing - The Real IPO Only Begins on the 11th Day Post Listing





Alibaba IPO/​Secondary Listing - Proposed Stock Connect Changes Might Throw a Spanner in the Works

Alibaba IPO/​​Secondary Listing - What to Do with the US ADR While Waiting for the HK Listing?
Alibaba IPO/​​​Secondary Listing -  Not Good for the ADR, Should Have Put a Price Range to It
Alibaba IPO/​​​​Secondary -  Neither Here Nor There - Index Announcements, Comparison to Other Deals




Alibaba IPO/​​​​​Secondary Listing Trading - Time to Converge, That’s It
China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang
China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home
China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List



Huazhu HK Secondary Listing - Needs the Money but Looks Toppish

Equity Bottom-Up

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Not surprisingly, online travel agency (OTA) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK)</a> reported substantial YoY declines in revenue and earnings in Q220, though market conditions and results were better than in Q120, when Covid19 and the government's response brought travel to a halt.</p>
<p>Tongcheng-ELong's revenue mix has changed as a result of the pandemic, in both positive and negative ways. While it's positive to see increased revenue from advertising and continued strength in its position in smaller cities, we believe the cessation of international travel hurts profitability. In addition, high fixed operating expenses also hit earnings in the second quarter.</p>
<p>As domestic travel normalized in the months following the peak of the pandemic in China, Tongcheng-ELong's shares have rallied by over 60%. Given the moderating pace of the recovery in Chinese travel demand, and stubbornly high operating expenses, we do not expect Tongcheng-ELong's earnings to suddenly 'snap back' in H220.</p>

Not surprisingly, online travel agency (OTA) Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK) reported substantial YoY declines in revenue and earnings in Q220, though market conditions and results were better than in Q120, when Covid19 and the government's response brought travel to a halt.
Tongcheng-ELong's revenue mix has changed as a result of the pandemic, in both positive and negative ways. While it's positive to see increased revenue from advertising and continued strength in its position in smaller cities, we believe the cessation of international travel hurts profitability. In addition, high fixed operating expenses also hit earnings in the second quarter.
As domestic travel normalized in the months following the peak of the pandemic in China, Tongcheng-ELong's shares have rallied by over 60%. Given the moderating pace of the recovery in Chinese travel demand, and stubbornly high operating expenses, we do not expect Tongcheng-ELong's earnings to suddenly 'snap back' in H220.

Tongcheng-ELong (780 HK) Q2 Results Reflect Changing Travel Patterns, Stubbornly High OpEx

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>Back on the 2 April, China's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/58-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2563:1" rel="noopener">58.Com Inc (WUBA US)</a> received a preliminary, nonbinding <a href="https://sec.report/Document/0001104659-20-042699/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a> from Ocean Link Partners, at $27.50 per Class A or Class B ordinary share, or $55/ADS, a 17.88% premium to last close. This was followed on the 20 April with 58.com <a href="http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=114974426&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=WUBA&amp;companyName=58.com+Inc.+American+Depositary+Shares+each+representing+2+Class+A&amp;formType=6-K&amp;dateFiled=2020-04-30&amp;CK=1525494" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcing</a> it had received a preliminary &amp; non-binding Offer from the Buyer Group, comprising Ocean Link Partners and Warburg Pincus Asia LLC, General Atlantic Singapore Fund, and Jinbo Yao, 58.com's chairman and chief executive officer. The indicative Offer Price remained at $55/ADS. A definitive Agreement and Plan of Merger was <a href="http://58.investorroom.com/2020-06-15-58-com-Enters-into-a-Definitive-Agreement-for-Going-Private-Transaction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on the 15 June, with the consideration price marginally sweetened to $56/ADS, a 19.9% premium to the undisturbed price.</p>
<p>Under the merger agreement, the Buyer Group has formed a new holding entity, Quantum Bloom Group Ltd (Parent).</p>
<p>Yao entered into a support agreement with the Parent such that Yao will roll over his stake in 58.com (42% of the voting power) into newly-issued shares of Parent. General Atlantic <a href="http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=115087118&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=WUBA&amp;companyName=58.com+Inc.+American+Depositary+Shares+each+representing+2+Class+A&amp;formType=SC+13D%2FA&amp;dateFiled=2020-06-22&amp;CK=1525494" target="_blank" rel="noopener">elected</a> on June 21, 2020 <em>not</em> to roll over its stake (2% of the voting power), electing its shares be cancelled in exchange for the merger consideration. That bumped the financing for the merger by US$400.4mn.</p>
<p>Additionally, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> entered into a rollover agreement with the parent on the <a href="http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=115079126&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=WUBA&amp;companyName=58.com+Inc.+American+Depositary+Shares+each+representing+2+Class+A&amp;formType=SC+13D%2FA&amp;dateFiled=2020-06-17&amp;CK=1525494" target="_blank" rel="noopener">15 June</a>, such that Tencent will roll over its existing stake (28.3% of the voting power) into newly-issued ordinary shares of Parent.</p>
<p>The Merger requires the affirmative vote of two-thirds of 58.com's total voting power (present and via proxy) at an EGM. This will be held on the 7 September - this coming Monday. Yao and General Atlantic will vote their collective 44.02% voting power in favour of the merger. Tencent is not obligated to vote in a specific way under its rollover Agreement. But assuming Tencent does, its 28.3% voting power takes the total to 72.3% - exceeding the two-thirds threshold.</p>
<p>The low-ball offer was not lost on investors. Lawyers Halper Sadeh set up a site for assist investors to "<em>obtain the best possible consideration</em>".</p>
<p>This was followed by proxy advisors reports from both Glass Lewis and ISS recommending shareholder vote AGAINST the proposal. </p>
<p>But this is a done deal. The alternative avenue is the long-dated appraisal rights route.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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Back on the 2 April, China's 58.Com Inc (WUBA US) received a preliminary, nonbinding proposal from Ocean Link Partners, at $27.50 per Class A or Class B ordinary share, or $55/ADS, a 17.88% premium to last close. This was followed on the 20 April with 58.com announcing it had received a preliminary &amp; non-binding Offer from the Buyer Group, comprising Ocean Link Partners and Warburg Pincus Asia LLC, General Atlantic Singapore Fund, and Jinbo Yao, 58.com's chairman and chief executive officer. The indicative Offer Price remained at $55/ADS. A definitive Agreement and Plan of Merger was announced on the 15 June, with the consideration price marginally sweetened to $56/ADS, a 19.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
Under the merger agreement, the Buyer Group has formed a new holding entity, Quantum Bloom Group Ltd (Parent).
Yao entered into a support agreement with the Parent such that Yao will roll over his stake in 58.com (42% of the voting power) into newly-issued shares of Parent. General Atlantic elected on June 21, 2020 not to roll over its stake (2% of the voting power), electing its shares be cancelled in exchange for the merger consideration. That bumped the financing for the merger by US$400.4mn.
Additionally, Tencent Holdings (700 HK) entered into a rollover agreement with the parent on the 15 June, such that Tencent will roll over its existing stake (28.3% of the voting power) into newly-issued ordinary shares of Parent.
The Merger requires the affirmative vote of two-thirds of 58.com's total voting power (present and via proxy) at an EGM. This will be held on the 7 September - this coming Monday. Yao and General Atlantic will vote their collective 44.02% voting power in favour of the merger. Tencent is not obligated to vote in a specific way under its rollover Agreement. But assuming Tencent does, its 28.3% voting power takes the total to 72.3% - exceeding the two-thirds threshold.
The low-ball offer was not lost on investors. Lawyers Halper Sadeh set up a site for assist investors to "obtain the best possible consideration".
This was followed by proxy advisors reports from both Glass Lewis and ISS recommending shareholder vote AGAINST the proposal. 
But this is a done deal. The alternative avenue is the long-dated appraisal rights route.


As always, more below the fold.


58.com: Foregone Conclusion Amidst Proxy Advisor Pushback

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/498/original/BANNER-TOURISM.png?1598998817" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156498"></figure>
<p>Chinese outbound travel remained stagnant in July. We will watch closely to see if relaxed travel restrictions in a few markets result in a surge in outbound travel activity. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Chinese domestic travel demand continued to recover in July, though activity remains far below 2019 levels. There is evidence consumers are opting for cheaper modes of travel, and this appears to benefit rail, highway, and Low Cost (air) Carriers. </p>
<p>Given the July numbers and our admitedly pessimistic outlook, it's difficult to get excited about shares of most Chinese travel service providers. We remain negative on Trip.com but think stocks of hotel chain Huazhu Group and the LCCs could outperform peers in the near-term. </p>


Chinese outbound travel remained stagnant in July. We will watch closely to see if relaxed travel restrictions in a few markets result in a surge in outbound travel activity. 
Meanwhile, Chinese domestic travel demand continued to recover in July, though activity remains far below 2019 levels. There is evidence consumers are opting for cheaper modes of travel, and this appears to benefit rail, highway, and Low Cost (air) Carriers. 
Given the July numbers and our admitedly pessimistic outlook, it's difficult to get excited about shares of most Chinese travel service providers. We remain negative on Trip.com but think stocks of hotel chain Huazhu Group and the LCCs could outperform peers in the near-term. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound Still Stagnant | Domestic Rebound Suggests Wary Consumer

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

TRACKING TRAFFIC's Travel Tracker Dashboard (September 11): Room Rates Up, But Air Activity Stalled

After a hiatus, we have updated our Travel Tracker to reflect activity through September 11th.

Tracking Traffic

Huazhu HK Secondary Listing - Needs the Money but Looks Toppish

Huazhu Group (HTHT US) has filed confidentially for a US$1bn secondary listing in Hong Kong, as per media reports. In our earlier insight, China...

Sumeet Singh

Tongcheng-ELong (780 HK) Q2 Results Reflect Changing Travel Patterns, Stubbornly High OpEx

point 1 point 2 point 3 conclusions

Tracking Traffic

58.com: Foregone Conclusion Amidst Proxy Advisor Pushback

On the 2 April, China's 58.Com Inc (WUBA US) received a preliminary, nonbinding proposal from Ocean Link Partners, at $27.50 per Class A or Class...

David Blennerhassett

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound Still Stagnant | Domestic Rebound Suggests Wary Consumer

Chinese outbound travel remained stagnant in July. We will watch closely to see if relaxed travel restrictions in a few markets result in a surge...

Tracking Traffic

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