Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. </li>
<li>On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.</li>
<li>There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.</li>
</ul>


There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. 
On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.
There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.


Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create *all* its profits &amp; cash flow, &amp; fund most of billions spent on capex. </li>
<li>
Aging Model Y—its last and only thriving model—won't save it. 
</li>
<li>Sales in China were weakening even before what now has become an extended disruption as China fights its worst Covid surge in two years.</li>
</ul>



Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create *all* its profits &amp; cash flow, &amp; fund most of billions spent on capex. 

Aging Model Y—its last and only thriving model—won't save it. 

Sales in China were weakening even before what now has become an extended disruption as China fights its worst Covid surge in two years.


Forget Elon's Twitter Spatter. Tesla's Got Trouble In China.

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>'s implied stub and simple ratio (Suzuki/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>) are currently at all-time lows.</li>
<li>This bifurcation has become endemic in the relative value space, especially in Japan. </li>
<li>Maruti is trading rich amid its ongoing support for hybrid vehicles. That scenario won't play out well. </li>
</ul>



Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)'s implied stub and simple ratio (Suzuki/ Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)) are currently at all-time lows.
This bifurcation has become endemic in the relative value space, especially in Japan. 
Maruti is trading rich amid its ongoing support for hybrid vehicles. That scenario won't play out well. 


Suzuki’s NAV Discount And Implied Stub Plumb New Lows. Again

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 7 April, the JPX announced the changes to the Free Float Weights (FFW) for the TOPIX Index. There are some big changes due to the updated FFW methodology.</li>
<li>From April to June, we see a one-way turnover of 2.87% and a one-way trade of ¥2,285bn. Some stocks have opposite way flows in different months.</li>
<li>Stocks with inflows outperformed stocks with outflows from Oct-Dec 2021 before giving up all the gains. These stocks have started to outperform and could continue outperforming over the next quarter.</li>
</ul>


On 7 April, the JPX announced the changes to the Free Float Weights (FFW) for the TOPIX Index. There are some big changes due to the updated FFW methodology.
From April to June, we see a one-way turnover of 2.87% and a one-way trade of ¥2,285bn. Some stocks have opposite way flows in different months.
Stocks with inflows outperformed stocks with outflows from Oct-Dec 2021 before giving up all the gains. These stocks have started to outperform and could continue outperforming over the next quarter.


TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toyota announced record overseas production in February putting up a data point to suggest supply chain issues are genuinely easing. </li>
<li>March is likely to prove more challenging due to some production stoppages but the trend looks clear. </li>
<li>That it comes at a time when the yen is weak and oil prices encourage hybrid demand is an additional boon for Toyota.</li>
</ul>


Toyota announced record overseas production in February putting up a data point to suggest supply chain issues are genuinely easing. 
March is likely to prove more challenging due to some production stoppages but the trend looks clear. 
That it comes at a time when the yen is weak and oil prices encourage hybrid demand is an additional boon for Toyota.


Toyota – Feb Production Numbers Suggest The Corner Has Been Turned

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

TOPIX April Rebalance - Two Days To Go

The TOPIX April-June rebalance for FFW review and Liquidity Factor adjustment sees its first tranche of trades executed Wednesday at the close.

Travis Lundy

Forget Elon's Twitter Spatter. Tesla's Got Trouble In China.

Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create all its profits & cash flow, & fund most of billions spent on capex....

Vicki Bryan

Suzuki’s NAV Discount And Implied Stub Plumb New Lows. Again

I'd be setting up the stub here - long Suzuki, short Maruti - once the momentum begins to turn. Maruti is supporting outdated tech, which will be...

David Blennerhassett

TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

Changes to the Topix FFW methodology will result in a turnover of 2.87% & trade of ¥2,285bn from April to June. There is a lot to trade on some...

Brian Freitas

Toyota – Feb Production Numbers Suggest The Corner Has Been Turned

Toyota announced record overseas production in February and this comes at a time when the yen is weak and oil prices encourage hybrid demand...

Mio Kato

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TOPIX April Rebalance - Two Days To Go

The TOPIX April-June rebalance for FFW review and Liquidity Factor adjustment sees its first tranche of trades executed Wednesday at the close.

Travis Lundy

Forget Elon's Twitter Spatter. Tesla's Got Trouble In China.

Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create *all* its profits & cash flow, & fund most of billions spent on capex....

Vicki Bryan

Suzuki’s NAV Discount And Implied Stub Plumb New Lows. Again

I'd be setting up the stub here - long Suzuki, short Maruti - once the momentum begins to turn. Maruti is supporting outdated tech, which will be...

David Blennerhassett

TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

Changes to the Topix FFW methodology will result in a turnover of 2.87% & trade of ¥2,285bn from April to June. There is a lot to trade on some...

Brian Freitas

Toyota – Feb Production Numbers Suggest The Corner Has Been Turned

Toyota announced record overseas production in February and this comes at a time when the yen is weak and oil prices encourage hybrid demand...

Mio Kato

Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create all its profits & cash flow, & fund most of billions spent on capex....