Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-maxell-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2484:1" rel="noopener">Maxell Ltd (6810 JP)</a> has been restructuring itself and the cost-cutting and rationalising of sales efforts and regions has led to post-relisting record OP.</li>
<li>But another (non-cash) write-off this past year has led to the third year of net losses in a row.</li>
<li>The company has, however, taken its actual cashflows and turned them into a large buyback</li>
</ul>



Maxell Ltd (6810 JP) has been restructuring itself and the cost-cutting and rationalising of sales efforts and regions has led to post-relisting record OP.
But another (non-cash) write-off this past year has led to the third year of net losses in a row.
The company has, however, taken its actual cashflows and turned them into a large buyback


Hitachi Maxell (6810 JP) - Very Big On-Market Buyback

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toyota is famous for conservative guidance, but today's FY3/23 estimates of a 22% decline in pretax profit raised some eyebrows. Raw materials &amp; logistics are to blame. </li>
<li>Adjusting for various conservative assumptions by Toyota for FY3/23, flat profits are possible, but margin deterioration appears unavoidable.  </li>
<li>On flat profits in FY3/23, the 12x PER &amp; 5.5x EV/EBITDA are not particularly cheap. Toyota is in the "Guidance Dog House" until it can produce a significant beat. </li>
</ul>


Toyota is famous for conservative guidance, but today's FY3/23 estimates of a 22% decline in pretax profit raised some eyebrows. Raw materials &amp; logistics are to blame. 
Adjusting for various conservative assumptions by Toyota for FY3/23, flat profits are possible, but margin deterioration appears unavoidable.  
On flat profits in FY3/23, the 12x PER &amp; 5.5x EV/EBITDA are not particularly cheap. Toyota is in the "Guidance Dog House" until it can produce a significant beat. 


Toyota Guides for a 22% Profit Drop--Tough to Buy This Dip For Now

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Toyota results were weak missing by 2.9% and OP by 8.5% due to weak volumes, material costs and some evidence of pulling forward costs. </li>
<li>Guidance was for a sharp YoY decline from ¥3trn in OP to just ¥2.4trn but this assumes limited price hikes and ¥115/$ so… who cares? </li>
<li>We expect the weak yen, rising hybrid penetration and volume recovery to drive OP into the ¥3.6-4.0trn range.</li>
</ul>


Toyota results were weak missing by 2.9% and OP by 8.5% due to weak volumes, material costs and some evidence of pulling forward costs. 
Guidance was for a sharp YoY decline from ¥3trn in OP to just ¥2.4trn but this assumes limited price hikes and ¥115/$ so… who cares? 
We expect the weak yen, rising hybrid penetration and volume recovery to drive OP into the ¥3.6-4.0trn range.


Toyota – Guidance Meaningless With A ¥115 Assumption

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Five things to know about China’s draft rules on local financial institutions
</li>
<li>
Beijing shortens quarantines for inbound travelers, close contacts
</li>
<li>
Shrinking capital investment drags down Caixin New Economy Index
</li>
</ul>



Five things to know about China’s draft rules on local financial institutions


Beijing shortens quarantines for inbound travelers, close contacts


Shrinking capital investment drags down Caixin New Economy Index



CX Daily: Five Things To Know About China’s Draft Rules On Local Financial Institutions

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.
Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.

China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.


Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Hitachi Maxell (6810 JP) - Very Big On-Market Buyback

Maxell (6810) hit post-listing record OP as it recorded its third consecutive net loss but is answering that with an OP forecast increase and a...

Travis Lundy

Toyota Guides for a 22% Profit Drop--Tough to Buy This Dip For Now

Toyota is dead money until they provide a huge beat. Earnings call raised more questions than management was willing to answer. Quite surprisingly...

SC Capital

Toyota – Guidance Meaningless With A ¥115 Assumption

Toyota guidance looks meaningless given a ¥115/$ assumption and we expect OP to potentially hit ¥4trn next year with a run at ¥5trn possible over...

Mio Kato

CX Daily: Five Things To Know About China’s Draft Rules On Local Financial Institutions

Five things to know about China’s draft rules on local financial institutions. Beijing shortens quarantines for inbound travelers, close contacts

Caixin Global

Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Short notional in Korea and Taiwan has been increasing as the market has been moving lower. Shorts on China Merchant Bank have been covered in...

Brian Freitas

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