Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-seikan-group-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11858:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP)</a> started down the "good governance path" a couple of years ago. The stock ran up. Then it drifted back lower.</li>
<li>They had promised a decent payout ratio, cross-holding sales, and "buybacks conducted in an agile manner."</li>
<li>On Friday 28 Feb, the company announced a large buyback and future share cancellation.</li>
</ul>



Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) started down the "good governance path" a couple of years ago. The stock ran up. Then it drifted back lower.
They had promised a decent payout ratio, cross-holding sales, and "buybacks conducted in an agile manner."
On Friday 28 Feb, the company announced a large buyback and future share cancellation.


Toyo Seikan (5901) - Big New Buyback Shows The Way To a Breakout of 20yr Range

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Did Trump do <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CKH (1 HK)</a> a solid, convincing them to sell assets that have profited from international trade growth, just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on anything that moves?</li>
<li>An OK package for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>. Not perfect. SEI IPO's a bit dodgy. It may be designed to spur ACT into action, but isn't an awful fallback.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill (3978 JP)</a>'s Offer bumped.  If you want to make sure this deal doesn't get done, do the things you need to do to make sure it doesn't get done.</li>
</ul>


Did Trump do CKH (1 HK) a solid, convincing them to sell assets that have profited from international trade growth, just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on anything that moves?
An OK package for Seven &amp; I (3382 JP). Not perfect. SEI IPO's a bit dodgy. It may be designed to spur ACT into action, but isn't an awful fallback.

Macromill (3978 JP)'s Offer bumped.  If you want to make sure this deal doesn't get done, do the things you need to do to make sure it doesn't get done.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Cheung Kong, Macromill, China National Building Material, Canvest

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>’s offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a> is HK$2.65 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 21 January.  </li>
<li>The Board has recommended that shareholders not accept. However, based on CCASS data, including acceptances, Shandong Xinjufeng’s shareholding was 46.41% of outstanding shares as of 17 January.</li>
<li>Absent an unlikely competing offer, the offer is on the cusp of being declared unconditional. At the last close and 4 February payment, the gross/annualized spread is 3.1%/128%.</li>
</ul>



Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)’s offer from Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) is HK$2.65 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 21 January.  
The Board has recommended that shareholders not accept. However, based on CCASS data, including acceptances, Shandong Xinjufeng’s shareholding was 46.41% of outstanding shares as of 17 January.
Absent an unlikely competing offer, the offer is on the cusp of being declared unconditional. At the last close and 4 February payment, the gross/annualized spread is 3.1%/128%.


GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer on the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

Japan

Toyo Seikan Group Holdings Ltd primarily manufactures, markets, and sells metal, plastic, and glass packaging products and containers.  The Company specializes in food cans, 18-liter cans, and other beverage cans.  Toyo Seikan also produces steel products such as steel sheets.

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Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP)

Toyo Seikan (5901) - Big New Buyback Shows The Way To a Breakout of 20yr Range

Toyo Seikan promised ¥100bn of buybacks in the 5 years to FY2027. It has done ¥50bn in 2yrs, and is launching another ¥30bn now. The promise of the...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Cheung Kong, Macromill, China National Building Material, Canvest

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer on the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

Absent an unlikely competing offer, the offer is on the cusp of being declared unconditional. At the last close and 4 February payment, the gross...

Arun George

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