IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japan Catalyst’s <a href="https://www.japancatalyst.com/pdf/JCI_TAISHO_20231201_eng.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> supports the idea of a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)</a> MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.</li>
<li>The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.</li>
<li>While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
</ul>


Japan Catalyst’s press release supports the idea of a Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.
The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.
While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.


Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)</a> has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY8,620 per share, a 55.5% premium to the undisturbed (24 November). </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Irrevocables represent a 40.31% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 44% minority acceptance rate. The offer is attractive vs. historical and peer multiples.</li>
</ul>



Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY8,620 per share, a 55.5% premium to the undisturbed (24 November). 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.
Irrevocables represent a 40.31% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 44% minority acceptance rate. The offer is attractive vs. historical and peer multiples.


Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY8,620

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sawai-group-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35512:1" rel="noopener">Sawai Group Holdings (4887 JP)</a> is negatively impacted by drug reimbursement pricing in Japan. H1FY23 revenue, operating profit, net profit decreased 1%, 36% y/y, and 29%, y/y, respectively.</li>
<li>Generic pharmaceutical companies are more affected by the drug price revisions than their branded counterparts. In addition, APIs are impacted by increases in the cost of oil and exchange rates.</li>
<li>The sustainability of the U.S. business rebound is still uncertain. We want to watch Sawai from sidelines and wait for full-year FY23 results, FY24 guidance, and NHI pricing decision.</li>
</ul>



Sawai Group Holdings (4887 JP) is negatively impacted by drug reimbursement pricing in Japan. H1FY23 revenue, operating profit, net profit decreased 1%, 36% y/y, and 29%, y/y, respectively.
Generic pharmaceutical companies are more affected by the drug price revisions than their branded counterparts. In addition, APIs are impacted by increases in the cost of oil and exchange rates.
The sustainability of the U.S. business rebound is still uncertain. We want to watch Sawai from sidelines and wait for full-year FY23 results, FY24 guidance, and NHI pricing decision.


Sawai Group Holdings (4887 JP): Continued Price Erosion Is Weakening Earnings Prowess

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

1. Industry viewpoints:
<ul>
<li>There is no doubt that the next step is to include biosimilar drugs in the volume-based purchase (VBP).</li>
<li>With the increasing prevalence of diabetes in China and the improvement of people's living and medical standards, the market size of diabetes drugs in China is expanding year by year.</li>
<li>As the penetration of interventional surgery continues to increase, the market of support devices across all interventional fields has a promising future.</li>
</ul>
2. Company news:
News about the new agreements from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luye-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:488:1" rel="noopener">Luye Pharma (2186 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huadong-medicine-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18522:1" rel="noopener">Huadong Medicine Co Ltd A (000963 CH)</a>. 
3. Market review: 
Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 2.83%, while CSI 300 decreased 0.5% over the same period of time.
4. Risk disclosure:
Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

1. Industry viewpoints:

There is no doubt that the next step is to include biosimilar drugs in the volume-based purchase (VBP).
With the increasing prevalence of diabetes in China and the improvement of people's living and medical standards, the market size of diabetes drugs in China is expanding year by year.
As the penetration of interventional surgery continues to increase, the market of support devices across all interventional fields has a promising future.

2. Company news:
News about the new agreements from BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK),Luye Pharma (2186 HK), and Huadong Medicine Co Ltd A (000963 CH). 
3. Market review: 
Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 2.83%, while CSI 300 decreased 0.5% over the same period of time.
4. Risk disclosure:
Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.19) - VBP on Biosimilar Drugs, Poor Performance of Healthcare Sector

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We know that historically there has been a lot of leakage leading into Earnings Season. In a different life, I remember Fuji Photo calling me in and given me a preview of the earnings results 2 weeks before the actual announcement. It may not happen as much now in the large-cap space, so we took a look at the small-cap space with very little coverage to see if there are movements in consensus.

We know that historically there has been a lot of leakage leading into Earnings Season. In a different life, I remember Fuji Photo calling me in and given me a preview of the earnings results 2 weeks before the actual announcement. It may not happen as much now in the large-cap space, so we took a look at the small-cap space with very little coverage to see if there are movements in consensus.

Japanese Small-Cap Names with Consensus Changes Leading into Earning Season....

Japan

TOWA PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. produces generic drugs mainly for elderly.  The Company also wholesales medicine and medical products of other pharmaceuticals.

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Towa Pharmaceutical (4553 JP)

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5%...

Arun George

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY8,620

The minimum acceptance condition requires a 44% minority acceptance rate. The offer is attractive vs. historical and peer multiples.

Arun George

Sawai Group Holdings (4887 JP): Continued Price Erosion Is Weakening Earnings Prowess

In H1FY23, revenue from Japan declined 7%, mainly due to drug price revisions in several consecutive years. Generic drug makers are more affected...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.19) - VBP on Biosimilar Drugs, Poor Performance of Healthcare Sector

This article analyzed the new document about VBP for biosimilar drugs, diabetes drugs market, support devices market in interventional fields,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Japanese Small-Cap Names with Consensus Changes Leading into Earning Season....

We know that historically there has been a lot of leakage leading into Earnings Season. In a different life, I remember Fuji Photo calling me in...

Custom Products Group

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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