Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies will report Q3 earnings on 31/Oct, with analysts expecting a 17.8% YoY fall in revenue and a 19.8% drop in EPS, due to weaker crude prices and refining margins.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies' OI PCR at 0.54 signals neutral sentiment, while a 92% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI clusters around strikes 70 and 72.5.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies’ short interest has risen for two consecutive biweekly periods, reaching 6.79 million shares as of 15/Oct—a 41% surge from 30/Sep and a 41.5% rise since 15/Jul.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies will report Q3 earnings on 31/Oct, with analysts expecting a 17.8% YoY fall in revenue and a 19.8% drop in EPS, due to weaker crude prices and refining margins.
TotalEnergies' OI PCR at 0.54 signals neutral sentiment, while a 92% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI clusters around strikes 70 and 72.5.
TotalEnergies’ short interest has risen for two consecutive biweekly periods, reaching 6.79 million shares as of 15/Oct—a 41% surge from 30/Sep and a 41.5% rise since 15/Jul.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] TotalEnergies’ OI PCR in Neutral Zone; Short Interest Rises in October

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies’ revenue is expected to fall 9.1% QoQ and 17.8% YoY in Q3, while its EPS is expected to rise 6.6% QoQ but fall 19.8% YoY. </li>
<li>TotalEnergies anticipates a decline in downstream profitability due to a 65.7% QoQ drop in European refining margins, though increased gas prices are expected to partially offset lower oil prices.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies raised its annual oil and gas output growth forecast to 3% through 2030. Targets natural gas to comprise 50% of its total sales mix by 2030.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies’ revenue is expected to fall 9.1% QoQ and 17.8% YoY in Q3, while its EPS is expected to rise 6.6% QoQ but fall 19.8% YoY. 
TotalEnergies anticipates a decline in downstream profitability due to a 65.7% QoQ drop in European refining margins, though increased gas prices are expected to partially offset lower oil prices.
TotalEnergies raised its annual oil and gas output growth forecast to 3% through 2030. Targets natural gas to comprise 50% of its total sales mix by 2030.


[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies at Risk from Oil Price Decline, Better Gas Prices Offer Relief

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>TotalEnergies, in its second quarter and first-half 2024 earnings, showcased a strategic focus on balanced growth, execution of large-scale projects, and improved shareholder returns, pivotal for the company's forward momentum in a transformative industry landscape.</li><li>Over the first half of 2024, TotalEnergies exhibited an active pursuit of its balanced strategy that encompasses strengthening its oil and gas portfolio while expanding its footprint in the integrated power sector.</li><li>This has been evident from the sanctioning of several key upstream projects such as Kaminho in Angola and Serie 2 and Atapu 2, all expected to bolster the upstream growth by 2-3% over the next five years.</li></ul>

TotalEnergies, in its second quarter and first-half 2024 earnings, showcased a strategic focus on balanced growth, execution of large-scale projects, and improved shareholder returns, pivotal for the company's forward momentum in a transformative industry landscape.Over the first half of 2024, TotalEnergies exhibited an active pursuit of its balanced strategy that encompasses strengthening its oil and gas portfolio while expanding its footprint in the integrated power sector.This has been evident from the sanctioning of several key upstream projects such as Kaminho in Angola and Serie 2 and Atapu 2, all expected to bolster the upstream growth by 2-3% over the next five years.

TotalEnergies SE: Strategic Portfolio Optimization in Renewable and Gas Projects Catalyzing Growth! - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies missed Q2 revenue and EPS estimates by 7.3% and 7.2%, respectively, with a 7.4% YoY drop in net profit due to contracting refining margins.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies' hydrocarbon production hit 2.44 mboe/d in Q2, near the top of its guidance. Projects production in Q3 at 2.4-2.49 mboe/d.</li>
<li>In Q2, TotalEnergies generated USD 7.8 billion in cash flow and completed USD 2 billion in buybacks. Authorized up to USD 2 billion in buybacks for Q3.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies missed Q2 revenue and EPS estimates by 7.3% and 7.2%, respectively, with a 7.4% YoY drop in net profit due to contracting refining margins.
TotalEnergies' hydrocarbon production hit 2.44 mboe/d in Q2, near the top of its guidance. Projects production in Q3 at 2.4-2.49 mboe/d.
In Q2, TotalEnergies generated USD 7.8 billion in cash flow and completed USD 2 billion in buybacks. Authorized up to USD 2 billion in buybacks for Q3.


[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies Misses Estimates on Lower Sales and Shrinking Margins

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies' robust hydrocarbon production in Q2 2024 will be offset by lower gas realizations and refining margins.</li>
<li>Higher utilisation rates are expected to partially mitigate reduced refining margins in Europe and the Middle East.</li>
<li>Seasonal factors are expected to lower the Integrated Power segment's adjusted net operating income by 18.2% QoQ to USD 500 million.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies' robust hydrocarbon production in Q2 2024 will be offset by lower gas realizations and refining margins.
Higher utilisation rates are expected to partially mitigate reduced refining margins in Europe and the Middle East.
Seasonal factors are expected to lower the Integrated Power segment's adjusted net operating income by 18.2% QoQ to USD 500 million.


TotalEnergies Hits Roadblock with Lower Gas Prices and Refining Margins

France

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

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TotalEnergies (TTE FP)

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] TotalEnergies’ OI PCR in Neutral Zone; Short Interest Rises in October

TotalEnergies revenue and EPS expected to fall YoY in Q3. OI PCR implies neutral sentiment, while volume PCR shows bullish sentiment. Short...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies at Risk from Oil Price Decline, Better Gas Prices Offer Relief

TotalEnergies' revenue and EPS are expected to decline YoY due to weak crude oil prices in Q3. The firm’s long-term growth prospects are strong...

Mint Finance

TotalEnergies SE: Strategic Portfolio Optimization in Renewable and Gas Projects Catalyzing Growth! - Major Drivers

TotalEnergies, in its second quarter and first-half 2024 earnings, showcased a strategic focus on balanced growth, execution of large-scale...

Baptista Research

[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies Misses Estimates on Lower Sales and Shrinking Margins

TotalEnergies missed revenue & EPS estimates by 7.3% and 7.2% respectively. Lower refining margins negatively impact profitability. Upstream...

Mint Finance

TotalEnergies Hits Roadblock with Lower Gas Prices and Refining Margins

Lower gas realisations and refining margins to eat up gains from healthy hydrocarbon production in Q2. Revenue expected to rise YoY and QoQ, but...

Mint Finance

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