Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q4, TotalEnergies beat adjusted net income forecasts by 4.8% and revenue projections by 11%. Adjusted net income and EPS rose by 8.1% QoQ and 9.2%, respectively.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies’ average gas price realisation rose 8.3% QoQ, European refining margins surged by 68.2% QoQ, while LNG price realisation rose 4.6%.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies’ hydrocarbon production rose 0.7% QoQ to 2.43 mboepd, as a 4.5% gas output increase offset a 2.4% oil production decline.</li>
</ul>


In Q4, TotalEnergies beat adjusted net income forecasts by 4.8% and revenue projections by 11%. Adjusted net income and EPS rose by 8.1% QoQ and 9.2%, respectively.
TotalEnergies’ average gas price realisation rose 8.3% QoQ, European refining margins surged by 68.2% QoQ, while LNG price realisation rose 4.6%.
TotalEnergies’ hydrocarbon production rose 0.7% QoQ to 2.43 mboepd, as a 4.5% gas output increase offset a 2.4% oil production decline.


[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies Surpasses Estimates on Strong Gas Trading and Higher LNG Prices

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>TotalEnergies' 2024 results presentation and 2025 outlook meeting provides critical insights into the company's ongoing operations and future strategy.</li><li>TotalEnergies has continued to execute its dual-pillar strategy focused on oil and gas, particularly LNG, and integrated power.</li><li>The 2024 performance highlights notable achievements and challenges across these areas.</li></ul>

TotalEnergies' 2024 results presentation and 2025 outlook meeting provides critical insights into the company's ongoing operations and future strategy.TotalEnergies has continued to execute its dual-pillar strategy focused on oil and gas, particularly LNG, and integrated power.The 2024 performance highlights notable achievements and challenges across these areas.

TotalEnergies: Can Its LNG Expansion Outpace the Energy Transition?

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies is to report its Q4 earnings on 05/Feb, with its quarterly and annual revenue and EPS projected to fall on a YoY basis.</li>
<li>As of 03/Feb, TotalEnergies’ implied volatility (IV) stands at 23.20%, with an IV rank of 63.17% and an IV percentile of 84%.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies’ OI by strike for the 21/Feb expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 57.5, 60, and 62.5, while puts dominate at 50, 52.5, and 55.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies is to report its Q4 earnings on 05/Feb, with its quarterly and annual revenue and EPS projected to fall on a YoY basis.
As of 03/Feb, TotalEnergies’ implied volatility (IV) stands at 23.20%, with an IV rank of 63.17% and an IV percentile of 84%.
TotalEnergies’ OI by strike for the 21/Feb expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 57.5, 60, and 62.5, while puts dominate at 50, 52.5, and 55.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] TotalEnergies Options Signal Neutral Sentiment, Elevated Volatility

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies’ Q4 revenue is expected to drop 22.5% YoY, with EPS down 14.8% YoY. For 2024, revenue and EPS are projected to fall 5.2% and 17.8%, respectively.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies expects lower crude prices to weigh on earnings but anticipates gains from higher LNG output, stronger gas trading, and rising LNG prices, setting it apart from peers.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies expects a slight increase in Q4 oil and gas production, with its Integrated LNG segment benefiting from an output rise and higher realizations.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies’ Q4 revenue is expected to drop 22.5% YoY, with EPS down 14.8% YoY. For 2024, revenue and EPS are projected to fall 5.2% and 17.8%, respectively.
TotalEnergies expects lower crude prices to weigh on earnings but anticipates gains from higher LNG output, stronger gas trading, and rising LNG prices, setting it apart from peers.
TotalEnergies expects a slight increase in Q4 oil and gas production, with its Integrated LNG segment benefiting from an output rise and higher realizations.


[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3m barrels (vs. expectations of 1.5m build), gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell less than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose by 37 Bcf for the week ending 21/Mar, in line with analyst expectations. Inventories are 6.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Shell to boost shareholder distributions to 40-50% of CFFO and cut costs by USD 5-7 billion by 2028. Exxon plans 250 layoffs in the UK by 2026.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3m barrels (vs. expectations of 1.5m build), gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell less than expected.
US natural gas inventories rose by 37 Bcf for the week ending 21/Mar, in line with analyst expectations. Inventories are 6.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Shell to boost shareholder distributions to 40-50% of CFFO and cut costs by USD 5-7 billion by 2028. Exxon plans 250 layoffs in the UK by 2026.


[ETP 2025/13] WTI Climbs on Trade Disruptions, Moderate Weather Forecasts Cap Henry Hub

France

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

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TotalEnergies (TTE FP)

[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies Surpasses Estimates on Strong Gas Trading and Higher LNG Prices

TotalEnergies exceeded Q4 forecasts with a 4.8% beat in adjusted net income and 11% in revenue. Gas price realisation and European refining...

Mint Finance

TotalEnergies: Can Its LNG Expansion Outpace the Energy Transition?

TotalEnergies' 2024 results presentation and 2025 outlook meeting provides critical insights into the company's ongoing operations and future...

Baptista Research

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] TotalEnergies Options Signal Neutral Sentiment, Elevated Volatility

TotalEnergies to report Q4 earnings on 05/Feb, revenue and EPS expected to decline YoY. IV at 23.20%, calls concentrated at strikes 57.5, 60,...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

TotalEnergies anticipates a drop in revenue and EPS for Q4 and 2024 due to lower crude prices, but expects gains from higher LNG output and...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/13] WTI Climbs on Trade Disruptions, Moderate Weather Forecasts Cap Henry Hub

US oil inventories fell more than expected, while natural gas inventories rose in line with expectations. Shell to increase shareholder...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies Surpasses Estimates on Strong Gas Trading and Higher LNG Prices

​TotalEnergies exceeded Q4 forecasts with a 4.8% beat in adjusted net income and 11% in revenue. Gas price realisation and European refining...

Mint Finance

TotalEnergies: Can Its LNG Expansion Outpace the Energy Transition?

TotalEnergies' 2024 results presentation and 2025 outlook meeting provides critical insights into the company's ongoing operations and future...

Baptista Research

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] TotalEnergies Options Signal Neutral Sentiment, Elevated Volatility

​TotalEnergies to report Q4 earnings on 05/Feb, revenue and EPS expected to decline YoY. IV at 23.20%, calls concentrated at strikes 57.5, 60,...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

​TotalEnergies anticipates a drop in revenue and EPS for Q4 and 2024 due to lower crude prices, but expects gains from higher LNG output and...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/13] WTI Climbs on Trade Disruptions, Moderate Weather Forecasts Cap Henry Hub

​US oil inventories fell more than expected, while natural gas inventories rose in line with expectations. Shell to increase shareholder...

Mint Finance

TotalEnergies exceeded Q4 forecasts with a 4.8% beat in adjusted net income and 11% in revenue. Gas price realisation and European refining...

TotalEnergies to report Q4 earnings on 05/Feb, revenue and EPS expected to decline YoY. IV at 23.20%, calls concentrated at strikes 57.5, 60,...

TotalEnergies anticipates a drop in revenue and EPS for Q4 and 2024 due to lower crude prices, but expects gains from higher LNG output and...

US oil inventories fell more than expected, while natural gas inventories rose in line with expectations. Shell to increase shareholder...