Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical market continuing to break down.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12491" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1">Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US)</a>, for its part, was lucky and managed to announce a US$1.5bn common stock offering to continue delevering its B/S. But where does this commodities complex correction lead us from here? What is the most likely pattern to test for?I think we need to be ready for a test to the downside and…

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical market continuing to break down.  Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US), for its part, was lucky and managed to announce a US$1.5bn common stock offering to continue delevering its B/S. But where does this commodities complex correction lead us from here? What is the most likely pattern to test for?I think we need to be ready for a test to the downside and…

Is The Commodities Complex Breaking Down All Over Again?

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

In this brief piece we take a considered stance on the likelihood of Brexit actually proceeding in the wake of June’s referendum and examine some of the strategic implications for equity investors in terms of the potential shifts in sovereign and corporate governance.

In this brief piece we take a considered stance on the likelihood of Brexit actually proceeding in the wake of June’s referendum and examine some of the strategic implications for equity investors in terms of the potential shifts in sovereign and corporate governance.

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some questions on some of the detail of the likely path ahead and some of the interesting elements around this.

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some questions on some of the detail of the likely path ahead and some of the interesting elements around this.

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside whether Banks, UK Banks or even UBS have gotten oversold and are trading buys post Brexit Vote. For my end, I am not going to trade more than 1-2% of holdings in banks. Just enough to get a feel. Not enough to do any damage. There may be some opportunities. There may be opportunities as well in names competing with WMT and in Telecoms…UK tracking device:…

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside whether Banks, UK Banks or even UBS have gotten oversold and are trading buys post Brexit Vote. For my end, I am not going to trade more than 1-2% of holdings in banks. Just enough to get a feel. Not enough to do any damage. There may be some opportunities. There may be opportunities as well in names competing with WMT and in Telecoms…UK tracking device:…

The Dark Side of Glocalization (Even if Investment Opportunities)

France

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

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TotalEnergies (TTE FP)

Is The Commodities Complex Breaking Down All Over Again?

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical...

Charles De Trenck

Brexit; Unintended Consequences

In this brief piece we take a considered stance on the likelihood of Brexit actually proceeding in the wake of June’s referendum and examine some...

John-Paul Smith

The Path to No Brexit

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some...

Emad Mostaque

Why Brexit (Probably) Won't Happen

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete...

Emad Mostaque

The Dark Side of Glocalization (Even if Investment Opportunities)

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside...

Charles De Trenck

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