IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lygend-resources-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36493:1" rel="noopener">Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK)</a> raised US$470 million, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/growatt-new-energy-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36103:1" rel="noopener">Growatt Technology (1833969D CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weilong-delicious-global-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33378:1" rel="noopener">Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK)</a> pre-market IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments -<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chip-eng-seng-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6441:1" rel="noopener">Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-medical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7441:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Medical (SMG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, DTAC/True.</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK) raised US$470 million, Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) and Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK) pre-market IPOs.
Event-Driven developments -Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP), Keppel Corp (KEP SP), Singapore Medical (SMG SP), Link Administration (LNK AU), Pendal Group (PDL AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), DTAC/True.


Weekly Deals Digest (27 Nov) - Keppel, Chip Eng Seng, Link Admin, DTAC/True, Growatt, Weilong

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>"The conditions precedent to the VTO have not been satisfied within one year from 22 November 2021 ... the parties have declined to carry out the VTO."</li>
<li>This statement was lifted from Telenor's (the major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>) brief announcement. Telenor/CP Group aim to complete the transaction within the first quarter of 2023</li>
<li>This appears a cop-out on behalf of both Tender Offerors (Telenor &amp; CP Group), who probably could have pushed for an extension.  And why weren't the scrip terms addressed?</li>
</ul>


"The conditions precedent to the VTO have not been satisfied within one year from 22 November 2021 ... the parties have declined to carry out the VTO."
This statement was lifted from Telenor's (the major shareholder of Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)) brief announcement. Telenor/CP Group aim to complete the transaction within the first quarter of 2023
This appears a cop-out on behalf of both Tender Offerors (Telenor &amp; CP Group), who probably could have pushed for an extension.  And why weren't the scrip terms addressed?


Disaster As VTOs Cancelled Under DTAC/True Merger

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The market cap review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> ends in 6 trading days.</li>
<li>Following the market consultation and reduction in the turnover ratio, there could be four changes to the index. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">TRUE</a> merger could result in another inclusion in Q1 2023.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the December rebalance is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 7.4bn. More than 1x ADV to trade on most stocks.</li>
</ul>


The market cap review period for the December rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) ends in 6 trading days.
Following the market consultation and reduction in the turnover ratio, there could be four changes to the index. The DTAC/TRUE merger could result in another inclusion in Q1 2023.
Estimated one-way turnover at the December rebalance is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 7.4bn. More than 1x ADV to trade on most stocks.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

<ul>
<li>Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.</li>
<li>The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.</li>
<li>Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. </li>
</ul>


Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.
The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. 


DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uzabase-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27798:1" rel="noopener">Uzabase Inc (3966 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptb-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19198:1" rel="noopener">PTB Group Ltd (PTB AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads  21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), 111 Inc (YI US), Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).
Lowest spreads - Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Uzabase Inc (3966 JP), PTB Group Ltd (PTB AU).


Merger Arb Mondays (21 Nov) - Halcyon, Lifestyle, OZ Minerals, Perpetual/Pendal, Nearmap, Nitro

Thailand

Total Access Communication Public Company Limited provides cellular mobile telephone services under WorldPhone 800 and WorldPhone 1800 brand names throughout Thailand. The Company also sells cellular handsets and other telecommunications equipment through its WorldMedia network of retail stores.

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Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)

Weekly Deals Digest (27 Nov) - Keppel, Chip Eng Seng, Link Admin, DTAC/True, Growatt, Weilong

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Link Admin, Nearmap, Nitro, Pendal, Lifestyle, Chip Eng Seng, Keppel, Singapore Medical,...

Arun George

Disaster As VTOs Cancelled Under DTAC/True Merger

This appears a cop-out on behalf of both Tender Offerors (Telenor & CP Group), who probably could have pushed for an extension. And why weren't...

David Blennerhassett

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

Following the market consultation, there could be 4 index change in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

Merger completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (21 Nov) - Halcyon, Lifestyle, OZ Minerals, Perpetual/Pendal, Nearmap, Nitro

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (61.4%), Alliance Aviation (49.4%), Genex (42.9%), Golden Energy (29.4%), 111 (28.4%), Perpetual...

Arun George

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