Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Bank of Japan moved the needle on the 10yr YCC from an effective cap 0.5% to a new effective cap at 1% but with a larger flexibility being introduced to the setup.</li>
<li>This also means that JGBs are now effectively tradeable again and that two-way-traffic is introduced as the BoJ can decide to guide the 10yr point both higher and lower within the accepted range given incoming data on prices ahead.</li>
<li>This is very different from just communicating a new clear cap and the 10yr yield is trading around +56 bps on the screens by the time of writing.</li>
</ul>


The Bank of Japan moved the needle on the 10yr YCC from an effective cap 0.5% to a new effective cap at 1% but with a larger flexibility being introduced to the setup.
This also means that JGBs are now effectively tradeable again and that two-way-traffic is introduced as the BoJ can decide to guide the 10yr point both higher and lower within the accepted range given incoming data on prices ahead.
This is very different from just communicating a new clear cap and the 10yr yield is trading around +56 bps on the screens by the time of writing.


Japan Watch: 1% with Added Flexibility – More or Less Printing from Here?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>In the markets we follow, China, Gold and the JPY most impacted</li>
<li>Which ones should we fade and where has the trend changed?</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
In the markets we follow, China, Gold and the JPY most impacted
Which ones should we fade and where has the trend changed?


Overview #12 - Not Another Trump Trade!Time to Fade?

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>In October 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celsys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20774:1" rel="noopener">CELSYS (3663 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pksha-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26181:1" rel="noopener">PKSHA Technology (3993 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genova-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43939:1" rel="noopener">GENOVA (9341 JP)</a> were included in the TOPIX index.</li>
<li>Next, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wa-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29189:1" rel="noopener">WA Inc (7683 JP)</a> will be included in TOPIX at the end of December 2024.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
In October 2024, CELSYS (3663 JP), PKSHA Technology (3993 JP), and GENOVA (9341 JP) were included in the TOPIX index.
Next, WA Inc (7683 JP) will be included in TOPIX at the end of December 2024.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Nov 2024)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This week, earnings results for the megabanks risk being a “sell on the news” event.</li>
<li>Analysts have been raising earnings estimates over the past 2 months.</li>
<li>Longer term story intact with most dynamics trending in their favour.</li>
</ul>


This week, earnings results for the megabanks risk being a “sell on the news” event.
Analysts have been raising earnings estimates over the past 2 months.
Longer term story intact with most dynamics trending in their favour.


Making Bank - Sector Outperforming Despite the BoJ's “dovishness”

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Japan Watch: 1% with Added Flexibility – More or Less Printing from Here?

The Bank of Japan moved the needle on the 10yr YCC from an effective cap 0.5% to a new effective cap at 1% but with a larger...

Steno Research

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Overview #12 - Not Another Trump Trade!Time to Fade?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the some post election trends in China, Japan and Precious...

Rikki Malik

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Nov 2024)

There are currently 76 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 70 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Making Bank - Sector Outperforming Despite the BoJ's “dovishness”

Analysts raise earnings estimates for megabanks, but upcoming results may trigger a "sell on the news" reaction. Overall, long-term outlook...

Rikki Malik

Japan Watch: 1% with Added Flexibility – More or Less Printing from Here?

The Bank of Japan moved the needle on the 10yr YCC from an effective cap 0.5% to a new effective cap at 1% but with a larger...

Steno Research

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Overview #12 - Not Another Trump Trade!Time to Fade?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the some post election trends in China, Japan and Precious...

Rikki Malik

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Nov 2024)

There are currently 76 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 70 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Making Bank - Sector Outperforming Despite the BoJ's “dovishness”

​Analysts raise earnings estimates for megabanks, but upcoming results may trigger a "sell on the news" reaction. Overall, long-term outlook...

Rikki Malik

Analysts raise earnings estimates for megabanks, but upcoming results may trigger a "sell on the news" reaction. Overall, long-term outlook...