Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Royal Bank Of Canada / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is breaking out after several months of consolidation. Same with the MSCI ACWI index. We are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish.</li>
<li>Breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, but the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remains our only country overweight</li>
<li>Moreover, major indexes in the next two largest global equity markets (Europe and Japan) remain below critical resistances of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX.</li>
</ul>


The SPX is breaking out after several months of consolidation. Same with the MSCI ACWI index. We are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish.
Breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, but the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remains our only country overweight
Moreover, major indexes in the next two largest global equity markets (Europe and Japan) remain below critical resistances of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX.


S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>With US bonds oversold, we expect the Japanese Yen to  strengthen</li>
<li>Supplementary Budget from the LDP as new cabinet's approval rating drops</li>
<li>The broad Japanese indices will struggle here as this plays out</li>
</ul>


With US bonds oversold, we expect the Japanese Yen to  strengthen
Supplementary Budget from the LDP as new cabinet's approval rating drops
The broad Japanese indices will struggle here as this plays out


Tactical Trading - JPY Weakness Has Likely Run Its Course for Now

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>One of the sectors we like for the next phase of the Japanese stock market</li>
<li>The market is not giving the benefit of the doubt to monetisation of its property portfolio</li>
<li>The core  railway business is back to pre-Covid 19  levels</li>
</ul>


One of the sectors we like for the next phase of the Japanese stock market
The market is not giving the benefit of the doubt to monetisation of its property portfolio
The core  railway business is back to pre-Covid 19  levels


All Aboard! JR East and the Monetisation of Its Property Assets

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CardinalStone

CardinalStone

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

CardinalStone is an independent, multi-asset investment management firm offering an assortment of financial services to a diverse institutional, high net worth and retail clientele base. The company began operations in June 2008 and its business is conducted across six divisions – Investment Banking, Asset Management, Securities Trading, Trust Services, Registrar Services and Financing. Headquartered in Lagos with offices in Abuja, Nigeria, the firm and its licensed subsidiaries diligently works with its clients to create bespoke solutions for their needs.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>In September, global equities performances were largely shaped by key monetary policy decisions of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, and Bank of Japan.</li><li>The dovish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which initiated a 50-bps rate cut after 14 months of holding rates steady, fueled positive sentiments across some markets, pushing the MSCI World Index up by 1.69%.</li><li>Elsewhere, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 6.45%, supported by Chinese stimulus efforts.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In September, global equities performances were largely shaped by key monetary policy decisions of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, and Bank of Japan.The dovish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which initiated a 50-bps rate cut after 14 months of holding rates steady, fueled positive sentiments across some markets, pushing the MSCI World Index up by 1.69%.Elsewhere, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 6.45%, supported by Chinese stimulus efforts.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a>'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 23 October.</li>
<li>At the reported indicative IPO price of JPY 1100/share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a> will be valued at JPY 639.1bn (US$4.49bn).</li>
<li>The stock should be added to one global index on 29 October, to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX INDEX</a> on 28 November, while another global index inclusion will need to wait till February.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 23 October.
At the reported indicative IPO price of JPY 1100/share, Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) will be valued at JPY 639.1bn (US$4.49bn).
The stock should be added to one global index on 29 October, to the TOPIX INDEX on 28 November, while another global index inclusion will need to wait till February.


Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO:  TPX Inclusion in November; Global Indices: One in October, One in Feb

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

$SPX and MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading Outlook on ACWI and SPX to Bullish as of last Fridays close above 5783; Buys in Services, Financials;...

Vermilion Research

Tactical Trading - JPY Weakness Has Likely Run Its Course for Now

With US government bonds oversold, the Japanese Yen is expected to strengthen causing the major Japanese indices to continue to tread water

Rikki Malik

All Aboard! JR East and the Monetisation of Its Property Assets

An undervalued sector in the Japanese stock market which is at the intersection of a few key themes including activism, raising returns and...

Rikki Malik

Monthly Equities - September 2024

In September, global equities performances were largely shaped by key monetary policy decisions of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal...

CardinalStone

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: TPX Inclusion in November; Global Indices: One in October, One in Feb

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) has announced the IPO price band of JPY 1100-1200/share. Book building starts today, and final pricing will be decided on 15...

Brian Freitas

S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

$SPX and MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading Outlook on ACWI and SPX to Bullish as of last Fridays close above 5783; Buys in Services, Financials;...

Vermilion Research

Tactical Trading - JPY Weakness Has Likely Run Its Course for Now

With ​US government bonds oversold, the Japanese Yen is expected to strengthen causing the major Japanese indices to continue to tread water

Rikki Malik

All Aboard! JR East and the Monetisation of Its Property Assets

An undervalued sector in the Japanese stock market which is at the intersection of a few key themes including activism, raising returns and...

Rikki Malik

Monthly Equities - September 2024

In September, global equities performances were largely shaped by key monetary policy decisions of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal...

CardinalStone

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: TPX Inclusion in November; Global Indices: One in October, One in Feb

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) has announced the IPO price band of JPY 1100-1200/share. Book building starts today, and final pricing will be decided on 15...

Brian Freitas

With US government bonds oversold, the Japanese Yen is expected to strengthen causing the major Japanese indices to continue to tread water