Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX reclaims 4000 level with 2nd day of gains; 8/11 SPX sectors up as VIX collapses; Fed Decision Day on Wed-Expect No surprises; INTEL headwinds on China curbs </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% vs Cash; USDJPY 132. 4; Japan set to rally after the Spring  transition break;US accepts Japan's EV subsidy appeal=+ve auto parts; More inflation support from govt. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Asahi Kasai - M&amp;A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain. Future profitability of the LiB Separator business in question. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX reclaims 4000 level with 2nd day of gains; 8/11 SPX sectors up as VIX collapses; Fed Decision Day on Wed-Expect No surprises; INTEL headwinds on China curbs 
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% vs Cash; USDJPY 132. 4; Japan set to rally after the Spring  transition break;US accepts Japan's EV subsidy appeal=+ve auto parts; More inflation support from govt. 
NUGGET. Asahi Kasai - M&amp;A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain. Future profitability of the LiB Separator business in question. 


Good Morning Japan |SPX Reclaims 4000! NUGGET: Asahi Kasei-M&A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.</li>
<li>And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.


The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

<ul>
<li>Three years ago I wrote a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-activism-at-tbs-there-s-a-history-and-there-is-new-activity-but-don-t-hold-your-breath" target="_blank" rel="noopener">piece</a> about the history of activism at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-broadcasting-system" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12981:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Broadcasting System (9401 JP)</a>, suggesting it was not expensive but activist gains might be hard won.</li>
<li>Yesterday, TBS announced it would sell strategic cross-holdings to raise cash for investment, as per its Medium-Term Management Plan 2023, and its full-year forecast Net Profit would rise 75%.</li>
<li>That tells you what you need to know, and it guides you to the value within. </li>
</ul>


Three years ago I wrote a piece about the history of activism at Tokyo Broadcasting System (9401 JP), suggesting it was not expensive but activist gains might be hard won.
Yesterday, TBS announced it would sell strategic cross-holdings to raise cash for investment, as per its Medium-Term Management Plan 2023, and its full-year forecast Net Profit would rise 75%.
That tells you what you need to know, and it guides you to the value within. 


TBS (9401) Selling Cross-Holdings But Don't Hold Your Breath

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>2022 was characterised by a historically strong H1 followed by a far weaker H2</li>
<li>The current downturn is impacting memory, PC and smartphone shipments the hardest</li>
<li>2023 is shaping up to be the reverse of 2022, i.e. historically weak H1 with recovery in H2</li>
</ul>


2022 was characterised by a historically strong H1 followed by a far weaker H2
The current downturn is impacting memory, PC and smartphone shipments the hardest
2023 is shaping up to be the reverse of 2022, i.e. historically weak H1 with recovery in H2


Semiconductors: 2022 Review & 2023 Outlook

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Strong Beta Close in US Markets, with SPX +1.6%; US 10YR Yield retreated to under 4%; Tech  w/SOX +1.5%, led by BroadCom. +5.7%;  Ford +4% on strong EV demand</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY strenthens 135.8;  Expect follow on Beta/Semi bid on Broadcom sentiment lift; Govt to restrain EPCO px Hikes; Renesas, OAL, JAL added to NKY </li>
<li>NUGGET: Advantest looks best positioned to benefit from the emerging boom in Generative AI. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Strong Beta Close in US Markets, with SPX +1.6%; US 10YR Yield retreated to under 4%; Tech  w/SOX +1.5%, led by BroadCom. +5.7%;  Ford +4% on strong EV demand
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY strenthens 135.8;  Expect follow on Beta/Semi bid on Broadcom sentiment lift; Govt to restrain EPCO px Hikes; Renesas, OAL, JAL added to NKY 
NUGGET: Advantest looks best positioned to benefit from the emerging boom in Generative AI. 


Good Morning Japan | Equities - All Good (Again); Strong Tech Bid; EV, AI Drivers; NUGGET: Advantest

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

Good Morning Japan |SPX Reclaims 4000! NUGGET: Asahi Kasei-M&A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain

Japan is poised to rally after the Spring transition, as its stocks have taken a hit during the recent risk-off period. This has created many...

Mark Chadwick

The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

This year, there is a US$12bn buy to do on 29 March at the close. Historically, performance is pretty good both on a 2-day period, then slumps....

Travis Lundy

TBS (9401) Selling Cross-Holdings But Don't Hold Your Breath

TBS has likely just sold a few to several hundred million dollars of crossholdings. But that is a one-off to finance investments. There is still no...

Travis Lundy

Semiconductors: 2022 Review & 2023 Outlook

2023 is shaping up to be the reverse of 2022, i.e. downturn continuing through H1 with recovery in H2. A lot depends on when PC and smartphone unit...

William Keating

Good Morning Japan | Equities - All Good (Again); Strong Tech Bid; EV, AI Drivers; NUGGET: Advantest

Strong close to US on Friday lead by Tech; In Japan. expect follow on Beta/Semi bid on Broadcom sentiment lift; Govt to restrain EPCO px Hikes;...

Mark Chadwick

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