IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a> is Japan’s leading manufacturer of X-ray analysis, measurement and testing instruments. It is seeking to raise up to US$760 million.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rigaku-holdings-268a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161041" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on weakening forward growth indicators, China revenue risk, rising cash conversion cycles, mid-tier FCF margin and large post-IPO share overhang. </li>
</ul>



Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is Japan’s leading manufacturer of X-ray analysis, measurement and testing instruments. It is seeking to raise up to US$760 million.
In Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on weakening forward growth indicators, China revenue risk, rising cash conversion cycles, mid-tier FCF margin and large post-IPO share overhang. 


Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a> is Japan’s leading manufacturer of X-ray analysis, measurement and testing instruments. It is seeking to raise up to US$760 million. </li>
<li>In Japan, Rigaku’s XRD (X-ray diffraction) has a high market share of 75%. Around 70% of its revenue is derived from customers outside Japan.   </li>
<li>The bull case rests on high customer switching costs, peer-leading revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, FCF generation, and low leverage.</li>
</ul>



Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is Japan’s leading manufacturer of X-ray analysis, measurement and testing instruments. It is seeking to raise up to US$760 million. 
In Japan, Rigaku’s XRD (X-ray diffraction) has a high market share of 75%. Around 70% of its revenue is derived from customers outside Japan.   
The bull case rests on high customer switching costs, peer-leading revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, FCF generation, and low leverage.


Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a> provides cutting-edge analytical solutions centered on X-ray technology globally. The company is one of the largest players globally in X-ray diffraction instrument market.</li>
<li>The company has filed for an IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and plans to raise proceeds of around US$900m from the IPO at a potential valuation of US$2bn.</li>
<li>In this insight, we discuss Rigaku’s business model, key drivers, financials and outlook for the company.</li>
</ul>



Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) provides cutting-edge analytical solutions centered on X-ray technology globally. The company is one of the largest players globally in X-ray diffraction instrument market.
The company has filed for an IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and plans to raise proceeds of around US$900m from the IPO at a potential valuation of US$2bn.
In this insight, we discuss Rigaku’s business model, key drivers, financials and outlook for the company.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We have summarized 2Q24 earnings of major overseas CXO and life science upstream (LSU) companies, which engage in clinical CROs, preclinical CROs, C(D)MOs, and LSU fields.</li><li>We find that those companies’ 2023 earnings growth varied across sub-sectors, with later-stage CXOs performing better than earlystage ones and non-manufacturing CXOs outperforming manufacturing ones.</li><li>However, the performance differences among sub-sectors decreased in 1Q24, and continued to narrow in 2Q24, with earnings of LSU and C(D)MO companies performing better than expected. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We have summarized 2Q24 earnings of major overseas CXO and life science upstream (LSU) companies, which engage in clinical CROs, preclinical CROs, C(D)MOs, and LSU fields.We find that those companies’ 2023 earnings growth varied across sub-sectors, with later-stage CXOs performing better than earlystage ones and non-manufacturing CXOs outperforming manufacturing ones.However, the performance differences among sub-sectors decreased in 1Q24, and continued to narrow in 2Q24, with earnings of LSU and C(D)MO companies performing better than expected. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Healthcare - Overseas CXO/ Life Science Upstream 2Q24 Review

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shareholders of Cambridge (UK)-based  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abcam-plc-fdbd66c6-5b3f-46b0-9e33-c7c79214544f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38641:1" rel="noopener">Abcam (ABCM US)</a> followed Glass Lewis and ISS recommendations and approved (&gt;84%) the scheme resolutions at both the Court Meeting and the GM.</li>
<li>The $24/share cash offer represents 10x EV/Fwd Revenue, 25x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danaher-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8243:1" rel="noopener">Danaher Corp (DHR US)</a> and Abcam have guided that the transaction is expected to close by mid-2024.</li>
<li>Spread is 3.21%/6.21% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 30 May). From the current levels, I see a balanced risk/reward.</li>
</ul>


Shareholders of Cambridge (UK)-based  Abcam (ABCM US) followed Glass Lewis and ISS recommendations and approved (&gt;84%) the scheme resolutions at both the Court Meeting and the GM.
The $24/share cash offer represents 10x EV/Fwd Revenue, 25x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA. Danaher Corp (DHR US) and Abcam have guided that the transaction is expected to close by mid-2024.
Spread is 3.21%/6.21% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 30 May). From the current levels, I see a balanced risk/reward.


United States

Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. manufactures scientific instruments, consumables, and chemicals. The Company offers analytical instruments, laboratory equipment, software, services, consumables, reagents, chemicals, and supplies to pharmaceutical and biotech companies, hospitals and clinical diagnostic labs, universities, research institutions, and government agencies.

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Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO UN)

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on weakening forward growth indicators, China revenue risk, rising cash conversion cycles, mid-tier FCF margin and large post...

Arun George

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on high customer switching costs, peer-leading revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, FCF generation, and low leverage.

Arun George

Rigaku Holdings IPO: Initial Thoughts

Rigaku, a global leader in scientific instruments based on X-ray technology, has filed for an IPO in Japan with plans to raise $900m at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

China Healthcare - Overseas CXO/ Life Science Upstream 2Q24 Review

We have summarized 2Q24 earnings of major overseas CXO and life science upstream (LSU) companies, which engage in clinical CROs, preclinical CROs,...

CMB International

Danaher/Abcam: Balanced Risk/Return

Shareholders of Abcam approve scheme resolutions, with a $24/share cash offer from Danaher Corp expected to close mid-2024. Balanced risk/reward...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on weakening forward growth indicators, China revenue risk, rising cash conversion cycles, mid-tier FCF margin and large post...

Arun George

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on high customer switching costs, peer-leading revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, FCF generation, and low leverage.

Arun George

Rigaku Holdings IPO: Initial Thoughts

​Rigaku, a global leader in scientific instruments based on X-ray technology, has filed for an IPO in Japan with plans to raise $900m at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

China Healthcare - Overseas CXO/ Life Science Upstream 2Q24 Review

We have summarized 2Q24 earnings of major overseas CXO and life science upstream (LSU) companies, which engage in clinical CROs, preclinical CROs,...

CMB International

Danaher/Abcam: Balanced Risk/Return

​Shareholders of Abcam approve scheme resolutions, with a $24/share cash offer from Danaher Corp expected to close mid-2024. Balanced risk/reward...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rigaku, a global leader in scientific instruments based on X-ray technology, has filed for an IPO in Japan with plans to raise $900m at a...

Shareholders of Abcam approve scheme resolutions, with a $24/share cash offer from Danaher Corp expected to close mid-2024. Balanced risk/reward...