ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage</a> will offload its entire stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-property-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1670:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Property Ltd</a> to TCC Assets in a share swap for an increased share in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fraser-and-neave-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:980:1" rel="noopener">Fraser And Neave</a> streamlining its business focus.</li>
<li>The share swap values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fraser-and-neave-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:980:1" rel="noopener">Fraser And Neave</a> on a par with peers which is at a significant premium to the share price but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fraser-and-neave-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:980:1" rel="noopener">Fraser And Neave</a> was excessively undervalued.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage</a> deserves to trade on a higher multiple given its pure-play status and a succession of recent restructurings including Serm Suk and Oishi Holdings. </li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage will offload its entire stake in Frasers Property Ltd to TCC Assets in a share swap for an increased share in Fraser And Neave streamlining its business focus.
The share swap values Fraser And Neave on a par with peers which is at a significant premium to the share price but Fraser And Neave was excessively undervalued.

Thai Beverage deserves to trade on a higher multiple given its pure-play status and a succession of recent restructurings including Serm Suk and Oishi Holdings. 


Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - Increasingly Streamlined SEA F&B Play

Asia Consumer Research, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Asia Consumer Research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>Welcome to <em><strong>Consumer Tales &amp; Trends</strong></em>, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s proposed swap deal with promoter company raises several questions for shareholders. Start with the back story about how <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fraser-and-neave-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:980:1" rel="noopener">Fraser And Neave (FNN SP)</a> joined the group.</li>
<li>Bigger weddings could become a trend in India - Read why we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalyan-jewellers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29714:1" rel="noopener">Kalyan Jewellers(KALYANKJ IN)</a> . Also, household debt in Thailand as % of GDP is highest in ASEAN.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Consumer Tales &amp; Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s proposed swap deal with promoter company raises several questions for shareholders. Start with the back story about how Fraser And Neave (FNN SP) joined the group.
Bigger weddings could become a trend in India - Read why we like Kalyan Jewellers(KALYANKJ IN) . Also, household debt in Thailand as % of GDP is highest in ASEAN.


Consumer Tales & Trends #July 11-20: THBEV SP Swap Deal, Bad Debts in Thailand, AI in Beauty.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage(THBEVSP)</a>'s  proposed swap deal involves acquiring a 41.3% stake in F&amp;N from promoters, seemingly at book value than fair market value, expected in case of an arms length transaction.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fraser-and-neave-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:980:1" rel="noopener">Fraser And Neave (FNN SP)</a>  holds a 20.3% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vietnam-dairy-products-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19635:1" rel="noopener">Vietnam Dairy(VNM VN</a>), Vietnam's leading dairy player, which is now trading at nearly a 40% discount to the investment value.</li>
<li>Understanding TCC Assets' ownership history of F&amp;N may help clarify the deal's valuation rationale.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage(THBEVSP)'s  proposed swap deal involves acquiring a 41.3% stake in F&amp;N from promoters, seemingly at book value than fair market value, expected in case of an arms length transaction.

Fraser And Neave (FNN SP)  holds a 20.3% stake in Vietnam Dairy(VNM VN), Vietnam's leading dairy player, which is now trading at nearly a 40% discount to the investment value.
Understanding TCC Assets' ownership history of F&amp;N may help clarify the deal's valuation rationale.


Thai Bev to Get F&N Stake from Promoters At Book Value than Fair Market Value

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage(THBEV SP)</a>  has proposed a share swap-deal with a promoter company to acquire additional stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fraser-and-neave-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:980:1" rel="noopener">FraserAnd Neave(FNN SP)</a>  in exchange for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-property-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1670:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Property</a> at negotiated valuations, not market prices.</li>
<li>Post-Completion of the swap deal with the promoter-owned entity, which requires shareholder approval, Thai Bev will hold a 69.6% stake in F&amp;N and no stake in Fraser Property (FPL).</li>
<li>If the stake swap were valued at yesterday's closing share prices, it would imply a drop in the total stake value for Thai Bev after the proposed deal.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage(THBEV SP)  has proposed a share swap-deal with a promoter company to acquire additional stake in FraserAnd Neave(FNN SP)  in exchange for Frasers Property at negotiated valuations, not market prices.
Post-Completion of the swap deal with the promoter-owned entity, which requires shareholder approval, Thai Bev will hold a 69.6% stake in F&amp;N and no stake in Fraser Property (FPL).
If the stake swap were valued at yesterday's closing share prices, it would imply a drop in the total stake value for Thai Bev after the proposed deal.


Thai Bev (THBEV SP): Exits Property, Boosts F&N Stake. Deal Valuation Seem Excessive

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> majority-owned SABECO, a leading beer company in Vietnam, may face volume declines if the proposed beer tax hike is implemented.</li>
<li>The tougher market outlook makes the earlier proposed BeerCo listing unlikely anytime soon.  </li>
<li>With no meaningful stock catalyst, weak sector outlook and a stretched balance sheet, the stock could slip down after index inclusion related passive stock buying ends.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) majority-owned SABECO, a leading beer company in Vietnam, may face volume declines if the proposed beer tax hike is implemented.
The tougher market outlook makes the earlier proposed BeerCo listing unlikely anytime soon.  
With no meaningful stock catalyst, weak sector outlook and a stretched balance sheet, the stock could slip down after index inclusion related passive stock buying ends.


Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Faces Potential Hit as Vietnam Proposes Beer Tax Hike

Singapore

Fraser and Neave Limited is principally engaged in the food and beverage, and printing and publishing business. The Company's principal activities include the production and sale of beverages, which includes soft drinks, beer, stout, and dairy products; and printing and publishing.

Wilmar International Ltd. is an agribusiness company. The Company is involved in oil palm cultivation, edible oils refining, oilseeds crushing, consumer pack edible oils processing and merchandising, specialty fats, oleochemicals and biodiesel manufacturing, and grains processing and merchandising. Wilmar also manufactures and distributes fertilizers and owns a fleet of vessels.

Golden Agri-Resources Limited cultivates, harvests, processes, distributes, and sells crude palm oil and palm kernel.  The Company also refines crude palm oil into cooking oil, margarine, and shortening for sale and distribution.

Established in 1992 and listed on the Singapore Exchange since 2007, First Resources is one of the leading palm oil producers in the region, managing over 200,000 hectares of oil palm plantations across the Riau, East Kalimantan and West Kalimantan provinces of Indonesia.

Our core business activities include cultivating oil palms, harvesting the fresh fruit bunches (FFB) and milling them into crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel (PK). In addition to plantations and palm oil mills, the Group through its refinery, fractionation, biodiesel and kernel crushing plants, processes its CPO and PK production into higher value palm-based products such as biodiesel, refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) olein and RBD stearin, palm kernel oil and palm kernel expeller. This enables the Group to extract maximum value out of our upstream plantation assets. Our products are sold to both local and international markets.

First Resources is committed to the production of sustainable palm oil. Our sustainability strategy is centred upon maximising output while minimising the adverse environmental and social impact from our operations. We will constantly strengthen our sustainability framework through regular benchmarking against industry standards and best practices.

Del Monte Pacific Limited produces and markets packaged vegetable and fruit, beverage and culinary products. The Group has the exclusive right to use the Del Monte brand for packaged products in the USA, South America, Philippines, the Indian subcontinent and Myanmar, and the S&W brand for both packaged and fresh products globally except Australia and New Zealand.

Bumitama Agri is a leading producer of crude palm oil and palm kernel in Indonesia. The Group is principally engaged in the cultivation of oil palm trees, as well as the harvesting and processing of fresh palm fruit bunches into CPO and PK. It was founded in 1996 and listed on the Singapore Exchange in 2012. 

Past extensification efforts, combined with continuous improvement in production processes, have bolstered Bumitama’s FFB (internally sourced) and CPO production volumes to climb significantly over the last ten years, with a CAGR of 11.8%. The Group has consistently stayed on the path towards achieving higher yields and extraction rates by investing in research and development, technology, and best practices in cultivation of oil palm. These efforts have made the Group one of the most efficient producers in the industry today, boasting a CPO yield of 4.2 tonnes per ha in 2021.

In recognition of its operations’ superiority, the Group has received numerous accolades which include having listed as Forbes Asia’s 200 Best Under a Billion 2013, earned Frost & Sullivan Indonesia’s Excellence Award in 2014, and obtained the Best Managed Small Cap Company in 2016 and the Most Outstanding Company in Singapore for the Decade (2010-2019) in 2019 from Asiamoney.

Japfa Ltd. operates in the agricultural industry. The Company breeds and processes chicken, pork and beef. Japfa also operates dairy farms.

Food Empire Holdings Limited manufactures and markets instant beverage products, frozen convenience food, confectionery and snack food. The Company exports its products to markets such as Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and Indochina.

Petra Foods Limited manufactures and distributes branded consumer products, primarily chocolate confectionery, across Southeast Asia.

Indofood Agri Resources Limited is an integrated agribusiness company. The Company and its subsidiaries are involved in research and development, oil palm seed breeding, oil palm cultivation and milling. Indofood Agri Resources also refines, brands and markets cooking oil, margarine, shortening and other palm oil products.

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited is an alcoholic beverage retailer.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Southbank, Victoria, Australia. The Company's line of business includes vineyard operations and international marketing and distribution of wine.

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited produces and distributes beer products.  The Company markets its products throughout China and around the world under the Tsingtao Beer brand name.

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

Molson Coors Brewing Company operates as a brewing company. The Company brews and produces beer. Molson Coors Brewing serves customers worldwide.

Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd manufacture and sells beverages and food products worldwide. The company is a part of Suntory Holdings ltd.

Coca-Cola Bottling Company Consolidated operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and distributes nonalcoholic beverages such as energy drinks, bottled water, tea, ready-to-drink coffee, enhanced water, juices, and sports drinks.

Coca Cola Bottling Co. Consolidated (COKE US)

Kirin Holdings Company, Limited produces beer, soft drinks, food products, whisky, and pharmaceuticals.  The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

Coca-Cola Icecek AS bottles and distributes carbonated soft drinks and noncarbonated beverages.

Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co., Ltd. develops, produces and sells liquor products. The Company operates in China.

Thai Beverage Public Company Limited produces a wide range of branded beer and spirits in Thailand.

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Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)