Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla's Cybercab is expected to be under $30,000 in price, with production costs of  ~$25,000 and operating costs of 30-40 cents per mile.</li>
<li>We found Baidu's robotaxi to be faces 50% higher daily total costs and runs a fleet of 600 autonomous vehicles.</li>
<li>To compete with Tesla’s Cybercab by 2026, Baidu must significantly reduce its operating costs. Tesla's lower price and efficiency could capture a larger market share.</li>
</ul>


Tesla's Cybercab is expected to be under $30,000 in price, with production costs of  ~$25,000 and operating costs of 30-40 cents per mile.
We found Baidu's robotaxi to be faces 50% higher daily total costs and runs a fleet of 600 autonomous vehicles.
To compete with Tesla’s Cybercab by 2026, Baidu must significantly reduce its operating costs. Tesla's lower price and efficiency could capture a larger market share.


A Comparison of Tesla’s Cybercab and Baidu’s Apollo Shows the Latter Must Improve

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We believe key to Trump's MAGA agenda is to revamp the US growth model of using trade deficit to fund the economy. Trump needs to cut imports without elicit inflation;</li>
<li>A way to cut inflation is to structurally lower the US cost of living. To do so will affect the lives of millions which means income tax cut is necessary;</li>
<li>To lower income tax without adding trade deficit, Trump needs to scale back government spending. Elon Musk, if making good of its US$2tn cuts plan, will help.</li>
</ul>


We believe key to Trump's MAGA agenda is to revamp the US growth model of using trade deficit to fund the economy. Trump needs to cut imports without elicit inflation;
A way to cut inflation is to structurally lower the US cost of living. To do so will affect the lives of millions which means income tax cut is necessary;
To lower income tax without adding trade deficit, Trump needs to scale back government spending. Elon Musk, if making good of its US$2tn cuts plan, will help.


If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a>, a premium EV brand by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, raised around US$440m in its US listing. Its IPO lockup will expire soon.</li>
<li>ZEEKR was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder, via Geely Holdings. The company undertook two pre-IPO funding rounds prior to listing.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), raised around US$440m in its US listing. Its IPO lockup will expire soon.
ZEEKR was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder, via Geely Holdings. The company undertook two pre-IPO funding rounds prior to listing.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


ZEEKR IPO Lockup - A US$1.3bn+ Lockup Expiry but Everyone Is Underwater

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Lithium Index. There are 3 adds and 3 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 13.8% and will result in a one-way trade of US$174m. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The index is not very widely tracked and there could be big moves in some stocks over the next few days - especially where there is multiple days ADV.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Lithium Index. There are 3 adds and 3 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 October.
Estimated one-way turnover is 13.8% and will result in a one-way trade of US$174m. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The index is not very widely tracked and there could be big moves in some stocks over the next few days - especially where there is multiple days ADV.


Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 28% Turnover & US$350m Trade

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Pony AI, a Chinese autonomous driving unicorn, is expected to price its IPO in November. Shares of WeRide, their primary competitor, end trading up ~7% in market debut on Friday.</li>
<li>Businesses of both self-driving technology companies have much in common: heavy operating losses, no defined break-even timeline and low revenue growth rates.</li>
<li>In their F-1, Pony AI has revised the minimum QIPO valuation from $8.5B to $4B, raising potential concerns of lofty valuation in the public markets.</li>
</ul>


Pony AI, a Chinese autonomous driving unicorn, is expected to price its IPO in November. Shares of WeRide, their primary competitor, end trading up ~7% in market debut on Friday.
Businesses of both self-driving technology companies have much in common: heavy operating losses, no defined break-even timeline and low revenue growth rates.
In their F-1, Pony AI has revised the minimum QIPO valuation from $8.5B to $4B, raising potential concerns of lofty valuation in the public markets.


Pony AI IPO Valuation Analysis: Likely To Price IPO Below $4B Valuation Threshold

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

A Comparison of Tesla’s Cybercab and Baidu’s Apollo Shows the Latter Must Improve

Baidu's robotaxi Apollo faces higher costs to build and operate than Tesla's Cybercab and Baidu must reduce operating costs to compete effectively...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZEEKR IPO Lockup - A US$1.3bn+ Lockup Expiry but Everyone Is Underwater

ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), raised around US$440m in its US listing. Its IPO lockup will expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 28% Turnover & US$350m Trade

There are 3 adds/3 deletes for the Solactive Global Lithium Index resulting in an estimated one-way turnover of 13.8% and in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

Pony AI IPO Valuation Analysis: Likely To Price IPO Below $4B Valuation Threshold

Pony AI is expected to IPO in November. In my insight, I focus on competitive landscape in the AD space, IPO valuation and key risks.

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A Comparison of Tesla’s Cybercab and Baidu’s Apollo Shows the Latter Must Improve

​Baidu's robotaxi Apollo faces higher costs to build and operate than Tesla's Cybercab and Baidu must reduce operating costs to compete effectively...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

​Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZEEKR IPO Lockup - A US$1.3bn+ Lockup Expiry but Everyone Is Underwater

ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), raised around US$440m in its US listing. Its IPO lockup will expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 28% Turnover & US$350m Trade

There are 3 adds/3 deletes for the Solactive Global Lithium Index resulting in an estimated one-way turnover of 13.8% and in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

Pony AI IPO Valuation Analysis: Likely To Price IPO Below $4B Valuation Threshold

Pony AI is expected to IPO in November. In my insight, I focus on competitive landscape in the AD space, IPO valuation and key risks.

Andrei Zakharov

Baidu's robotaxi Apollo faces higher costs to build and operate than Tesla's Cybercab and Baidu must reduce operating costs to compete effectively...

Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....