Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>Oh, the inhumanity of <em>Monopolium Inquisitorum</em>, leviathans made to stand before the judgement of inquisitorial courts. Repent and reform, or burn in everlasting… fine, maybe just shed a few worldly possessions, WhatsApp would be a good start, and stop coveting thy neighbors' data so much.</p><p>Big technology companies (aka "Big Tech") are the subject of ever-expanding antitrust inquisitions by regulators and courts around the world. In the U.S., informal inquiries into prominent members of FAANG by the U.S. Congress turned into formal antitrust suits, first Alphabet then Facebook.</p><p>Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) announced yet another inquiry, this one into the data collection practices of social media companies. It mentioned nine companies by name, a few of which are "new" to this conversation (ByteDance, Tencent-investee Discord, and Snap).</p><p>This Insight looks at one particular ESG angle to this antitrust stuff. Specifically, the potential for antitrust investigations – not the outcomes, but the process – to trigger ESG ratings downgrades and, in turn, constituency changes to major ESG indices. Summary points, for the cover page:</p><ul>
<li>Antitrust investigations will inevitably result in additional ESG ratings downgrades, and since most ESG indices are constructed using those ratings, constituency changes are likely.</li>
<li>Index changes might not happen until annual reviews a few months from now, but they are not tied to eventual antitrust outcomes (e.g., breakups) that could be years away, or not at all.</li>
<li>Presently, Facebook and Alphabet are the only U.S. stocks that stand out vis-à-vis the potential for antitrust-driven changes to ESG ratings and/or ESG indices (more so for Facebook).</li>
<li>Let's be honest, we are not talking about Tesla being added to the S&amp;P 500. Even for larger ESG indices, index-linked AUM is <em>comparatively</em> small vis-à-vis broader market indices.</li>
<li>However, one thing keeps it interesting. ESG indices are bloated with Big Tech, many of which are right behind Facebook and Alphabet on the antitrust plank walk.</li>
</ul><p>Herein, I explain my thought process – antitrust, to ESG ratings downgrades, to ESG index changes – then cover Facebook and Alphabet in some detail (albeit limited by constraints). There is less to say about the other U.S. "antitrust stocks" at the moment, but that may change. More importantly, I am looking into something similar, but related to Asian stocks. So, more to come.</p>

Oh, the inhumanity of Monopolium Inquisitorum, leviathans made to stand before the judgement of inquisitorial courts. Repent and reform, or burn in everlasting… fine, maybe just shed a few worldly possessions, WhatsApp would be a good start, and stop coveting thy neighbors' data so much.Big technology companies (aka "Big Tech") are the subject of ever-expanding antitrust inquisitions by regulators and courts around the world. In the U.S., informal inquiries into prominent members of FAANG by the U.S. Congress turned into formal antitrust suits, first Alphabet then Facebook.Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) announced yet another inquiry, this one into the data collection practices of social media companies. It mentioned nine companies by name, a few of which are "new" to this conversation (ByteDance, Tencent-investee Discord, and Snap).This Insight looks at one particular ESG angle to this antitrust stuff. Specifically, the potential for antitrust investigations – not the outcomes, but the process – to trigger ESG ratings downgrades and, in turn, constituency changes to major ESG indices. Summary points, for the cover page:
Antitrust investigations will inevitably result in additional ESG ratings downgrades, and since most ESG indices are constructed using those ratings, constituency changes are likely.
Index changes might not happen until annual reviews a few months from now, but they are not tied to eventual antitrust outcomes (e.g., breakups) that could be years away, or not at all.
Presently, Facebook and Alphabet are the only U.S. stocks that stand out vis-à-vis the potential for antitrust-driven changes to ESG ratings and/or ESG indices (more so for Facebook).
Let's be honest, we are not talking about Tesla being added to the S&amp;P 500. Even for larger ESG indices, index-linked AUM is comparatively small vis-à-vis broader market indices.
However, one thing keeps it interesting. ESG indices are bloated with Big Tech, many of which are right behind Facebook and Alphabet on the antitrust plank walk.
Herein, I explain my thought process – antitrust, to ESG ratings downgrades, to ESG index changes – then cover Facebook and Alphabet in some detail (albeit limited by constraints). There is less to say about the other U.S. "antitrust stocks" at the moment, but that may change. More importantly, I am looking into something similar, but related to Asian stocks. So, more to come.

Big Tech Antitrust Scrutiny Could Mean ESG Ratings Downgrades, Constituency Changes for ESG Indices

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yidu-tech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29245:1" rel="noopener">Yidu Tech Inc (YID HK)</a> is a software company that offers healthcare solutions built on big data and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Yidu ranked No.1 in terms of revenue among all healthcare big data solution providers in China in 2019 with a market share of 5.0% in the healthcare big data solutions market in China, according to EY. Yidu is backed by GIC and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>. Yidu is pre-marketing a Hong Kong IPO to raise as much as $500 million, according to press reports.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Yidu is a play on China’s healthcare industry rising spend on IT and data services. Hospitals are investing in solutions to digitalize hospital operations, clinical practice, academic research, and patient services. Regulators and policymakers at national, provincial, and local municipal levels are investing in systems and platforms for data connectivity and public health monitoring. Yidu is benefiting from these structural trends by delivering breakneck growth and steadily reducing losses. Overall, we believe that Yidu is an attractive play on these market dynamics.</p></div>

Yidu Tech Inc (YID HK) is a software company that offers healthcare solutions built on big data and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Yidu ranked No.1 in terms of revenue among all healthcare big data solution providers in China in 2019 with a market share of 5.0% in the healthcare big data solutions market in China, according to EY. Yidu is backed by GIC and Tencent Holdings (700 HK). Yidu is pre-marketing a Hong Kong IPO to raise as much as $500 million, according to press reports.Yidu is a play on China’s healthcare industry rising spend on IT and data services. Hospitals are investing in solutions to digitalize hospital operations, clinical practice, academic research, and patient services. Regulators and policymakers at national, provincial, and local municipal levels are investing in systems and platforms for data connectivity and public health monitoring. Yidu is benefiting from these structural trends by delivering breakneck growth and steadily reducing losses. Overall, we believe that Yidu is an attractive play on these market dynamics.

Yidu Tech IPO Initiation: Patient Revolution

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) started to investigate many internet companies for monopoly.</li>
<li>We believe the movement is generally temporary for most companies.</li>
<li>However, there is risk for online payment and giant companies.</li>
</ul>


The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) started to investigate many internet companies for monopoly.
We believe the movement is generally temporary for most companies.
However, there is risk for online payment and giant companies.


Alibaba (BABA): This Online Antitrust Wave, A Risk, But Not A Massacre

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>The possibility of a merger break opens up significant downside risk for Douyu in our opinion. We had previously said that we believed Douyu had managed earnings to present strong looking financials for the rumoured merger and the sustainability of the business was suspect. It looked like that wouldn’t end up mattering but this news changes things.</p>

The possibility of a merger break opens up significant downside risk for Douyu in our opinion. We had previously said that we believed Douyu had managed earnings to present strong looking financials for the rumoured merger and the sustainability of the business was suspect. It looked like that wouldn’t end up mattering but this news changes things.

Huya – Increasingly Our Preferred Pick Vs. Douyu Given the Threat of the Merger Collapsing

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Blue Moon Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-blue-moon-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29179:1" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Holdings (BMG HK)</a> (BMG) raised around US$1.4bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is backed by Hillhouse who first invested in the company in 2010. </p></div><div><p>We have covered various aspects of the deal, in our earlier insights:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-the-positives-dominant-market-share-strong-online-sales" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Market Share, Strong Online Sales</a></li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-the-negatives-flagging-offline-sales-not-really-a-primary-raising" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Flagging Offline Sales, Not Really a Primary Raising</a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-no-1-but-no-exclusive-advantage-observation-on-the-ground" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon: No. 1 but no exclusive advantage, observation on the ground.</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-online-reviews-and-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Online Reviews and Peer Comparison</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-initial-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Initial Thoughts on Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-phip-updates-a-mixed-bag" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - A Mixed Bag</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-valuation-updates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Valuation Updates</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-ipo-not-a-clean-wash" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group IPO - Not a Clean Wash</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this insight, I'll talk about the subscription levels and provide a table with implied valuations.</p></div>

Blue Moon Group Holdings (BMG HK) (BMG) raised around US$1.4bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is backed by Hillhouse who first invested in the company in 2010. We have covered various aspects of the deal, in our earlier insights:
Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Market Share, Strong Online Sales
In Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Flagging Offline Sales, Not Really a Primary Raising

Blue Moon: No. 1 but no exclusive advantage, observation on the ground.
Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Online Reviews and Peer Comparison
Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Initial Thoughts on Valuation
Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - A Mixed Bag
Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Valuation Updates
Blue Moon Group IPO - Not a Clean Wash
In this insight, I'll talk about the subscription levels and provide a table with implied valuations.

Blue Moon Group IPO Trading - Too Expensive for Our Liking but Retail Traders Seem to Like It

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Big Tech Antitrust Scrutiny Could Mean ESG Ratings Downgrades, Constituency Changes for ESG Indices

Antitrust broaches several highly-material ESG issues. Growing antitrust scrutiny of "Big Tech" could lead to ESG rating downgrades, and in turn,...

Kyle Rudden

Yidu Tech IPO Initiation: Patient Revolution

Yidu is pre-marketing a Hong Kong IPO to raise as much as $500 million. Overall, Yidu is an attractive play on rising IT spend in China’s...

Arun George

Alibaba (BABA): This Online Antitrust Wave, A Risk, But Not A Massacre

The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) started to investigate many internet companies for monopoly. We believe the movement is...

Ming Lu

Huya – Increasingly Our Preferred Pick Vs. Douyu Given the Threat of the Merger Collapsing

We have consistently said that proper analysis of the financials pointed to Huya's business being noticeably more sustainable than that of Douyu....

Mio Kato

Blue Moon Group IPO Trading - Too Expensive for Our Liking but Retail Traders Seem to Like It

Blue Moon Group Holdings (BMG HK) (BMG) raised around US$1.4bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is backed by Hillhouse who first invested in...

Sumeet Singh

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