Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> has had a disastrous year, ever since the IPO of their FinTech arm, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a>, was pulled last minute in November 2020. Since then, they have faced continued regulatory hurdles, including an RMB18.2bn anti-monopoly fine, which has culminated in a 51% share price drop, since its November 2020 peak, which means that Alibaba is currently trading on only a 14.3x forward PE ratio. Given that this is nearly 4 standard deviations below its 5-year historical average trading range, and that this multiple would imply only a 0.72x PEG ratio, for a company with an extremely strong net cash balance sheet, delivering returns on capital well above its cost of capital, with positive free cash flow generation, and a $15bn share buyback program, indicates that there is a massive disconnect between long-term Buy-side expectations and near-term Sell-side estimates. Looking at the reported group financials over this period it does not seem as though the regulatory impact has been that significant on core operations. The key concern, however, is that Alibaba is losing market share in its core businesses. In this insight, I take a closer look at the broader Chinese retail market, as well as the Chinese digital advertising market (I estimate that Alibaba still generates more than 40% of its Chinese commerce revenue, and roughly 1/3rd of group revenue, from marketing activities), to analyse Alibaba’s relative revenue share loss. Finally, I also revisit current valuation levels and analyse what this implies for its Core Commerce operations.

Alibaba Group (9988 HK) has had a disastrous year, ever since the IPO of their FinTech arm, Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK), was pulled last minute in November 2020. Since then, they have faced continued regulatory hurdles, including an RMB18.2bn anti-monopoly fine, which has culminated in a 51% share price drop, since its November 2020 peak, which means that Alibaba is currently trading on only a 14.3x forward PE ratio. Given that this is nearly 4 standard deviations below its 5-year historical average trading range, and that this multiple would imply only a 0.72x PEG ratio, for a company with an extremely strong net cash balance sheet, delivering returns on capital well above its cost of capital, with positive free cash flow generation, and a $15bn share buyback program, indicates that there is a massive disconnect between long-term Buy-side expectations and near-term Sell-side estimates. Looking at the reported group financials over this period it does not seem as though the regulatory impact has been that significant on core operations. The key concern, however, is that Alibaba is losing market share in its core businesses. In this insight, I take a closer look at the broader Chinese retail market, as well as the Chinese digital advertising market (I estimate that Alibaba still generates more than 40% of its Chinese commerce revenue, and roughly 1/3rd of group revenue, from marketing activities), to analyse Alibaba’s relative revenue share loss. Finally, I also revisit current valuation levels and analyse what this implies for its Core Commerce operations.

Alibaba: How Much Core Market Share Loss Has Been Priced In?

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Shui on Xintiandi / Equity Capital Markets

Shui on Xintiandi is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and UBS.Shui on Xintiandi is a leading investor and manager of commercial properties in the PRC. As per Knight Frank, it is one of the largest private commercial property owners and operators in Shanghai by total gross floor area (GFA). As of Jun 2021, the firm had a portfolio of 13 commercial properties which occupied 2m sqm of GFA, and had a combined valuation of RMB53.1bn. Its properties are spread across Shanghai, Wuhan, Nanjing, Foshan and Chongqing, where Shanghai properties accounted for 52.7% and 71.9% of total GFA and valuation, respectively.

Shui on Xintiandi is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and UBS.Shui on Xintiandi is a leading investor and manager of commercial properties in the PRC. As per Knight Frank, it is one of the largest private commercial property owners and operators in Shanghai by total gross floor area (GFA). As of Jun 2021, the firm had a portfolio of 13 commercial properties which occupied 2m sqm of GFA, and had a combined valuation of RMB53.1bn. Its properties are spread across Shanghai, Wuhan, Nanjing, Foshan and Chongqing, where Shanghai properties accounted for 52.7% and 71.9% of total GFA and valuation, respectively.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by a host of financial investors including Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.As per iResearch, ANE’s network was the largest in China in terms of total freight volume over 2017-20 with a market share of 17.2% in 2020.By Dec 2020, it had collaborated with approximately 26,400 freight partners and agents to serve 3.6m shippers across approximately 96% of the counties and townships in China. Both the freight partners and freight agents operate under its brand and are required to adhere to its service guidelines and policies. ANE’s overall volume and top line growth has been decent. However, not all of its offerings have been growing, while some of its revenue growth was driven by accounting changes. We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-pre-ipo-margins-expanding-but-appears-to-be-falling-behind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - Margins expanding but appears to be falling behind</a>. In this note we will talk about the updated financials from the PHIP.

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by a host of financial investors including Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.As per iResearch, ANE’s network was the largest in China in terms of total freight volume over 2017-20 with a market share of 17.2% in 2020.By Dec 2020, it had collaborated with approximately 26,400 freight partners and agents to serve 3.6m shippers across approximately 96% of the counties and townships in China. Both the freight partners and freight agents operate under its brand and are required to adhere to its service guidelines and policies. ANE’s overall volume and top line growth has been decent. However, not all of its offerings have been growing, while some of its revenue growth was driven by accounting changes. We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - Margins expanding but appears to be falling behind. In this note we will talk about the updated financials from the PHIP.

ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Underlying Growth Is Far from Clear

AIM Vaccine is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal is run by Goldman Sachs, CICC, China Securities, and Macquarie. This is a refiling after its filing in July 2021 was rejected by HKEX.AIM Vaccine is a leading vaccine company covering the full value chain from research to manufacturing and commercialisation. As of the latest practicable date (3 Sept 2021), it had commercialised eight vaccine products against six disease areas. It also has 23 vaccine candidates against 13 disease areas. The firm has four Licensed Manufacturing Facilities in Rong’an Bio, AIM Hanxin, AIM Kanghuai and AIM Weixin, and a total designed annual production capacity of 91.3m doses.

AIM Vaccine is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal is run by Goldman Sachs, CICC, China Securities, and Macquarie. This is a refiling after its filing in July 2021 was rejected by HKEX.AIM Vaccine is a leading vaccine company covering the full value chain from research to manufacturing and commercialisation. As of the latest practicable date (3 Sept 2021), it had commercialised eight vaccine products against six disease areas. It also has 23 vaccine candidates against 13 disease areas. The firm has four Licensed Manufacturing Facilities in Rong’an Bio, AIM Hanxin, AIM Kanghuai and AIM Weixin, and a total designed annual production capacity of 91.3m doses.

AIM Vaccine (艾美疫苗) Pre-IPO Tearsheet (Refiled)

Prudential aims to raise around US$2.8bn via an international and public offering in Hong Kong. The deal has been in the pipeline for a while and hence, is very well flagged.In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Prudential aims to raise around US$2.8bn via an international and public offering in Hong Kong. The deal has been in the pipeline for a while and hence, is very well flagged.In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Prudential Hong Kong Offering - Well Flagged Pivot to Asia, Mind the Liquidity Gap

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Shui on Xintiandi Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Shui on Xintiandi is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and UBS.

Clarence Chu

ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Underlying Growth Is Far from Clear

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.

Sumeet Singh

AIM Vaccine (艾美疫苗) Pre-IPO Tearsheet (Refiled)

AIM Vaccine is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal is run by Goldman Sachs, CICC, China Securities, and Macquarie.

Clarence Chu

Prudential Hong Kong Offering - Well Flagged Pivot to Asia, Mind the Liquidity Gap

Prudential aims to raise around US$2.8bn via an international and public offering in Hong Kong. The deal has been in the pipeline for a while.

Sumeet Singh

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Alibaba: How Much Core Market Share Loss Has Been Priced In?

In this insight, I analyse Chinese retail sales and digital advertising market share changes and what is implied by Alibaba’s current valuation...

Wium Malan, CFA

Shui on Xintiandi Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Shui on Xintiandi is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and UBS.

Clarence Chu

ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Underlying Growth Is Far from Clear

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.

Sumeet Singh

AIM Vaccine (艾美疫苗) Pre-IPO Tearsheet (Refiled)

AIM Vaccine is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal is run by Goldman Sachs, CICC, China Securities, and Macquarie.

Clarence Chu

Prudential Hong Kong Offering - Well Flagged Pivot to Asia, Mind the Liquidity Gap

Prudential aims to raise around US$2.8bn via an international and public offering in Hong Kong. The deal has been in the pipeline for a while.

Sumeet Singh