Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Technical Analysis

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The adoption of AI promises to be highly disruptive and has to potential to improve profitability of companies that adopt the technology.</li>
<li>It faces regulatory hurdles and risk-pricing challenges as insurance companies learn to price AI risk, but those problems are a few years away.</li>
<li>In the near term, the technology rally appears extended and may need a breather.</li>
</ul>


The adoption of AI promises to be highly disruptive and has to potential to improve profitability of companies that adopt the technology.
It faces regulatory hurdles and risk-pricing challenges as insurance companies learn to price AI risk, but those problems are a few years away.
In the near term, the technology rally appears extended and may need a breather.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is 1% above the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>Our view since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder is that we cannot be bearish if the SPX is above 4050, and we subsequently moved that line-in-the-sand up to 4165-4200 on 6/6/23.</li>
<li>We are moving that threshold up to 4300, which is short-term support to watch; a break below it could bring selling pressure.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is 1% above the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
Our view since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder is that we cannot be bearish if the SPX is above 4050, and we subsequently moved that line-in-the-sand up to 4165-4200 on 6/6/23.
We are moving that threshold up to 4300, which is short-term support to watch; a break below it could bring selling pressure.


Consolidation Likely, But Little Reason to Be Bearish; Buys Within Biotech, Latin American Banks

<ul>
<li>Can the AI frenzy, which appears to be in its early stages, carry the stock market to a new bull? An academic study indicates that's the wrong question to ask.</li>
<li>The right question is to determine whether we are in an equity bull so that AI stocks can take advantage of the bull trend. Breadth needs to broaden out.</li>
<li>The other and more conventional explanation of market structure is an unhealthy advance against a backdrop of a market that’s positioning for a recession.</li>
</ul>


Can the AI frenzy, which appears to be in its early stages, carry the stock market to a new bull? An academic study indicates that's the wrong question to ask.
The right question is to determine whether we are in an equity bull so that AI stocks can take advantage of the bull trend. Breadth needs to broaden out.
The other and more conventional explanation of market structure is an unhealthy advance against a backdrop of a market that’s positioning for a recession.


Can AI Stocks Lead the Market to a New Bull?

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.</li>
<li>Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.
Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.


Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not <em>have to</em> end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere</li>
<li>To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not have to end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere
To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

United States

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of The Technology Select Sector Index. The ETF holds large and mid-cap technology stocks. Its largest investment allocation is in the United States. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

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Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)

A Focus on AI and Technology Stocks

The adoption of AI promises to be highly disruptive and has to potential to improve profitability, bu faces regulatory hurdles and risk-pricing...

Cam Hui

Consolidation Likely, But Little Reason to Be Bearish; Buys Within Biotech, Latin American Banks

$SPX is 1% above 4300-4325 which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023. Our view since May 30 (ETF Pathfinder) is we cannot be bearish if SPX is...

Vermilion Research

Can AI Stocks Lead the Market to a New Bull?

Can the AI frenzy, which appears to be in its early stages, carry the stock market to a new bull? An academic study indicates that's the wrong...

Cam Hui

Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

Breadth remains weak within the $SPX, but we're seeing breadth improve within the small-cap Russell 2000 $IWM. All this points to a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

So far there has been little traction above $SPX 4200. Weak breadth remains an obvious problem. We are watching the $IWM which is testing $180; a...

Vermilion Research

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