Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical and Quantitative Research

Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

Consolidation Likely, But Little Reason to Be Bearish; Buys Within Biotech, Latin American Banks

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.</li>
<li>Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.
Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.


Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels