Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML's results last week indicated continued strength in the semiconductor industry. We analyze the results to identify any potential signs of weakening or pauses in global industry momentum for Taiwan.</li>
<li>Net system bookings surged 54% QoQ and ASML reported rising utilization levels of its clients' equipment. Inventory days rose significantly, but this is due to upcoming 2025 orderbook deliveries.</li>
<li>New US, Europe, and Japan fabs bolster strong revenue outlook into 2026E. Overall, robust industry demand persists according to ASML's latest data, with no major signs of softness.</li>
</ul>


ASML's results last week indicated continued strength in the semiconductor industry. We analyze the results to identify any potential signs of weakening or pauses in global industry momentum for Taiwan.
Net system bookings surged 54% QoQ and ASML reported rising utilization levels of its clients' equipment. Inventory days rose significantly, but this is due to upcoming 2025 orderbook deliveries.
New US, Europe, and Japan fabs bolster strong revenue outlook into 2026E. Overall, robust industry demand persists according to ASML's latest data, with no major signs of softness.


ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.</li><li>Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.</li><li>Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.</li></ul>

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.</li>
<li>Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. </li>
<li>Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.</li>
</ul>


DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.
Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. 
Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.


Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> is forecasted to experience slight growth in 3Q24 compared to 2Q24.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> is expected to introduce AI PCs in 2024, while Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) scheduled for this product is anticipated to delivered in 2H25.  </li>
<li>The shipment forecast for the Dimensity 9400 is approximately 5 million sets in 2H24.</li>
</ul>



Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is forecasted to experience slight growth in 3Q24 compared to 2Q24.  

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) is expected to introduce AI PCs in 2024, while Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) scheduled for this product is anticipated to delivered in 2H25.  
The shipment forecast for the Dimensity 9400 is approximately 5 million sets in 2H24.


MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q24 Might Grow Slightly QoQ, While AI PCs Could Be Delivered in 2H25.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Significant revenue guidance hike -- TSMC reported 2Q24 results, increasing 2024E revenue growth guidance to exceed 'mid-20's' percent, a significant hike from previous guidance.</li>
<li>Management is low-balling LT margins -- Latest figures and long-term margin color makes us believe that TSMC will be able to increase GM much higher than current official LT guidance.</li>
<li>Signs of Apple expecting strong iPhone 16 sales -- TSMC reported strength in smartphone end-applications and we believe this is reflective of Apple ramping up re: stronger iPhone volume expectations.</li>
</ul>


Significant revenue guidance hike -- TSMC reported 2Q24 results, increasing 2024E revenue growth guidance to exceed 'mid-20's' percent, a significant hike from previous guidance.
Management is low-balling LT margins -- Latest figures and long-term margin color makes us believe that TSMC will be able to increase GM much higher than current official LT guidance.
Signs of Apple expecting strong iPhone 16 sales -- TSMC reported strength in smartphone end-applications and we believe this is reflective of Apple ramping up re: stronger iPhone volume expectations.


We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?

We analyze ASML's results for signs of potential industry softness or pausing of demand. Overall, ASML's data depicts an industry experiencing...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.

Steno Research

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q24 Might Grow Slightly QoQ, While AI PCs Could Be Delivered in 2H25.

Mediatek Inc expected to see slight growth in 3Q24, while AI PCs are anticipated to delivered in 2H25. The shipment forecast for the Dimensity...

Patrick Liao

We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up

TSMC raises revenue guidance significantly for 2024E. We also see many signs that TSMC can earn higher LT margins than it is guiding. TSMC shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?

​We analyze ASML's results for signs of potential industry softness or pausing of demand. Overall, ASML's data depicts an industry experiencing...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.

Steno Research

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

​Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q24 Might Grow Slightly QoQ, While AI PCs Could Be Delivered in 2H25.

​Mediatek Inc expected to see slight growth in 3Q24, while AI PCs are anticipated to delivered in 2H25. The shipment forecast for the Dimensity...

Patrick Liao

We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up

​TSMC raises revenue guidance significantly for 2024E. We also see many signs that TSMC can earn higher LT margins than it is guiding. TSMC shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

We analyze ASML's results for signs of potential industry softness or pausing of demand. Overall, ASML's data depicts an industry experiencing...

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Mediatek Inc expected to see slight growth in 3Q24, while AI PCs are anticipated to delivered in 2H25. The shipment forecast for the Dimensity...

TSMC raises revenue guidance significantly for 2024E. We also see many signs that TSMC can earn higher LT margins than it is guiding. TSMC shows...