Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues of $15.4 billion, +8.5% QoQ, +10% YoY and $300 million above the guided midpoint</li>
<li>Q124 guided to $12.7 billion, -17.5% QoQ albeit still up 8% YoY.  </li>
<li>Intel's share priced fell 12% on the guide. CEO says this was an overreaction. </li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues of $15.4 billion, +8.5% QoQ, +10% YoY and $300 million above the guided midpoint
Q124 guided to $12.7 billion, -17.5% QoQ albeit still up 8% YoY.  
Intel's share priced fell 12% on the guide. CEO says this was an overreaction. 


Intel Ruins The Rally With Its Gloomy Guide

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 What production fabs and capacity? Intel's Arizona 10nm Fab 12, 22, 32, which are mostly depreciated. Intel will provide nearly 30k/m 12" capacity for UMC at the first stage.</li>
<li>
 Who's 12nm node and design rule? UMC's tsmc-like 12nm design rule for customers to produce WiFi 7, TV controller, and other products.</li>
<li>
Other discussions include: "Who will operate the fabs?", "How to share sales/profits?", "Mass production time?", "Why benefits to Intel?", "Why benefits to UMC?", "Will TSMC get hurt?"</li>
</ul>



 What production fabs and capacity? Intel's Arizona 10nm Fab 12, 22, 32, which are mostly depreciated. Intel will provide nearly 30k/m 12" capacity for UMC at the first stage.

 Who's 12nm node and design rule? UMC's tsmc-like 12nm design rule for customers to produce WiFi 7, TV controller, and other products.

Other discussions include: "Who will operate the fabs?", "How to share sales/profits?", "Mass production time?", "Why benefits to Intel?", "Why benefits to UMC?", "Will TSMC get hurt?"


Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are Working Together?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. </li>
<li>SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. </li>
<li>New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. </li>
</ul>


With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. 
SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. 
New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. 


A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

<ul>
<li>As expected, SOX index broke a new high, in line with Nov US semi equipment billings and Oct SIA/WSTS global sales y/y improvement.</li>
<li>SEMI reports Nov front/back end equipment billings decline of 9% and 11% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 14% and 17% y/y decline in Oct, implying recovery intact.</li>
<li>WSTS/SIA earlier reported Oct sales of US$46.6bn, up 3.8% m/m and down only 1% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and clearly pass the trough.</li>
</ul>


As expected, SOX index broke a new high, in line with Nov US semi equipment billings and Oct SIA/WSTS global sales y/y improvement.
SEMI reports Nov front/back end equipment billings decline of 9% and 11% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 14% and 17% y/y decline in Oct, implying recovery intact.
WSTS/SIA earlier reported Oct sales of US$46.6bn, up 3.8% m/m and down only 1% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and clearly pass the trough.


Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

Intel Ruins The Rally With Its Gloomy Guide

Q423 revenues of $15.4 billion, +8.5% QoQ, +10% YoY & $300 million above the guided midpoint. Q124 guided to $12.7 billion, -17.5% QoQ. Shares...

William Keating

Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are Working Together?

Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are working Together? Customers will use UMC's tsmc-like 12nm design rule to produce WiFi 7, TV...

Andrew Lu

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

As expected last month, Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment billings and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

Andrew Lu

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