Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q323 revenues of $17.28 billion. In US$ terms, this represented a 10.2% increase QoQ, but still down 14.6% YoY.</li>
<li>TSMC’s forecasted Q423 revenues of $19.2 billion at the midpoint, representing a 10% QoQ increase</li>
<li>CEO C.C Wei robustly rebuffed Intel's popular claim to be on track for process technology leadership by 2025</li>
</ul>


Q323 revenues of $17.28 billion. In US$ terms, this represented a 10.2% increase QoQ, but still down 14.6% YoY.
TSMC’s forecasted Q423 revenues of $19.2 billion at the midpoint, representing a 10% QoQ increase
CEO C.C Wei robustly rebuffed Intel's popular claim to be on track for process technology leadership by 2025


TSMC. Robust Defence Of Process Technology Leadership

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.</li>
<li>TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.</li>
<li>Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.
TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.
Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.


TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS/ ROE is USD$17.57b/ 54.3%/ 41.7%/ NT$8.14/ 25.8% in 3Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18.8-19.6bn/ 51.5-53.5%; OPM: 39.5-41.5% in 4Q23F guidance.</li>
<li>Moving into 4Q23F, TSMC expects their business to be supported by smartphone seasonality, while AI-related demand continues to be strong. </li>
<li>TSMC anticipates 2024F to experience healthy growth, and TSMC has noticed a resurgence in demand for smartphones and PCs.</li>
</ul>


The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS/ ROE is USD$17.57b/ 54.3%/ 41.7%/ NT$8.14/ 25.8% in 3Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18.8-19.6bn/ 51.5-53.5%; OPM: 39.5-41.5% in 4Q23F guidance.
Moving into 4Q23F, TSMC expects their business to be supported by smartphone seasonality, while AI-related demand continues to be strong. 
TSMC anticipates 2024F to experience healthy growth, and TSMC has noticed a resurgence in demand for smartphones and PCs.


TSMC (2330.TT;TSM.US): Lukewarm 4Q23F Outlook, and Hope to Experience a Healthy Growth in 2024F.

<ul>
<li>TSMC and ASML will report results this week. We may get additional detail about the scope of AI-related demand as a medium-term driver for the semiconductor industry.</li>
<li>Many Taiwan AI plays were top losers last week. Separately, the U.S. is expected to announce new tech restrictions for China this week.</li>
<li>SK Hynix is reportedly working closely with Mediatek to integrate some of its most advanced memory in Mediatek's flagship Dimensity chips. Mediatek was a top gainer last week.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and ASML will report results this week. We may get additional detail about the scope of AI-related demand as a medium-term driver for the semiconductor industry.
Many Taiwan AI plays were top losers last week. Separately, the U.S. is expected to announce new tech restrictions for China this week.
SK Hynix is reportedly working closely with Mediatek to integrate some of its most advanced memory in Mediatek's flagship Dimensity chips. Mediatek was a top gainer last week.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC & ASML Results This Week; Taiwan AI Plays Top Losers

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics and Nanya Technology will report their results this week. Samsung could reportedly increase NAND prices this month, giving a potential hint to the memory outlook they will provide.</li>
<li>Hon Hai will begin mass production of its Model C electric car in 4Q23E in Taiwan. This will provide a proof point for Hon Hai's global EV platform business model.</li>
<li>Top gainers recently have included rebounding AI names -- One can consider using the bounce to find AI shorts to pair against an Nvidia long.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics and Nanya Technology will report their results this week. Samsung could reportedly increase NAND prices this month, giving a potential hint to the memory outlook they will provide.
Hon Hai will begin mass production of its Model C electric car in 4Q23E in Taiwan. This will provide a proof point for Hon Hai's global EV platform business model.
Top gainers recently have included rebounding AI names -- One can consider using the bounce to find AI shorts to pair against an Nvidia long.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung & Nanya Earnings; AI Names Rebound Again

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC. Robust Defence Of Process Technology Leadership

Q323 revenue $17.28 billion, +10.2% QoQ in US$ terms but still down 14.6% YoY. Q423 revenues of $19.2 billion, +10% QoQ. CEO C.C. Wei says his N3P...

William Keating

TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

TSMC maintained its expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. It also reiterated its view that it can maintain its gross margin near all...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT;TSM.US): Lukewarm 4Q23F Outlook, and Hope to Experience a Healthy Growth in 2024F.

TSMC expects their business to be supported by smartphone seasonality, while AI-related demand continues to be strong. TSMC anticipates 2024F to...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC & ASML Results This Week; Taiwan AI Plays Top Losers

SK Hynix is reportedly working closely with Mediatek to integrate some of its most advanced memory in Mediatek's flagship Dimensity chips. Mediatek...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung & Nanya Earnings; AI Names Rebound Again

Top gainers recently have included rebounding AI names -- One can consider using the bounce to find AI shorts to pair against an Nvidia long.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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