Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It is expected that TSMC will have full capacity utilization of 3nm and 5nm technology nodes starting from 1Q24F.</li>
<li>Regarding 3nm technology, the EUV mask layer will be reduced.</li>
<li>The total number of iPhone 15 units sold in 2023F is expected over 85 million.</li>
</ul>


It is expected that TSMC will have full capacity utilization of 3nm and 5nm technology nodes starting from 1Q24F.
Regarding 3nm technology, the EUV mask layer will be reduced.
The total number of iPhone 15 units sold in 2023F is expected over 85 million.


TSMC (2330.TT): The Advanced Technology Nodes Are Looking at Upside in 2024F

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Taiwan AI names rebounded strongly after having previously suffered declines. Nevertheless, many names have outperformed Nvidia and could be good hedges vs. a Long Nvidia position.</li>
<li>Nanya Tech crashed after the market reacted to Micron's weaker than expected near-term guidance. We believe the negative reaction to Micron is short-sighted. Please see our piece.</li>
<li>Delta Thailand crashed vs. Delta Taiwan after the parent sold a stake in the Thai subsidiary. We continue to believe Delta Taiwan offers substantially better value.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan AI names rebounded strongly after having previously suffered declines. Nevertheless, many names have outperformed Nvidia and could be good hedges vs. a Long Nvidia position.
Nanya Tech crashed after the market reacted to Micron's weaker than expected near-term guidance. We believe the negative reaction to Micron is short-sighted. Please see our piece.
Delta Thailand crashed vs. Delta Taiwan after the parent sold a stake in the Thai subsidiary. We continue to believe Delta Taiwan offers substantially better value.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Names Rebound; Memory Crashes; Look for Nvidia Hedges

<ul>
<li>Our range for TSMC's spread trading appears to be working. Premium has rebounded lately and we would Short if breaks above 9.8%.</li>
<li>Our UMC trading range also appears to be working. We should Short if the premium increases slightly further to break 1%.</li>
<li>One can consider Shorting ASE's ADR premium at the current 10.8% premium level. After latest premium spike, risk appears skewed to the downside in the coming weeks.</li>
</ul>


Our range for TSMC's spread trading appears to be working. Premium has rebounded lately and we would Short if breaks above 9.8%.
Our UMC trading range also appears to be working. We should Short if the premium increases slightly further to break 1%.
One can consider Shorting ASE's ADR premium at the current 10.8% premium level. After latest premium spike, risk appears skewed to the downside in the coming weeks.


Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Trading Ranges Working; Short ASE Spread at Latest Level

<ul>
<li>Micron results this week. The company is likely to call a trough for memory prices and highlight its development of the next most advanced type of HBM DRAM for AI. </li>
<li>Taiwan's market fell, with previous AI-rally beneficiaries continuing to be some of the top losers. Interestingly, Taiwan AI-names outperformed Nvidia over the last three months.</li>
<li>Intel's Innovation Conference wrapped up last week, with its new Meteor Lake PC CPUs launching Dec 14th, which is positive for the PC supply chain. Intel shares fell slightly however.</li>
</ul>


Micron results this week. The company is likely to call a trough for memory prices and highlight its development of the next most advanced type of HBM DRAM for AI. 
Taiwan's market fell, with previous AI-rally beneficiaries continuing to be some of the top losers. Interestingly, Taiwan AI-names outperformed Nvidia over the last three months.
Intel's Innovation Conference wrapped up last week, with its new Meteor Lake PC CPUs launching Dec 14th, which is positive for the PC supply chain. Intel shares fell slightly however.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Results Ahead; Taiwan AI Plays Slump But Still Beat Nvidia Last 3 Months

<ul>
<li>Intel kicked off its Innovation conference and announced that its new PC processors with built-in AI coprocessors would launch December 14th. This is positive for the PC supply chain.</li>
<li>Many types of existing software that used to require expert users can become more valuable with AI capabilities; we believe tomorrow's AI PC killer apps could be in plain sight.</li>
<li>Himax Long vs. Novatek Short. Himax is at historically very cheap level relative to Novatek, yet both are exposed to similar display end-markets.</li>
</ul>


Intel kicked off its Innovation conference and announced that its new PC processors with built-in AI coprocessors would launch December 14th. This is positive for the PC supply chain.
Many types of existing software that used to require expert users can become more valuable with AI capabilities; we believe tomorrow's AI PC killer apps could be in plain sight.
Himax Long vs. Novatek Short. Himax is at historically very cheap level relative to Novatek, yet both are exposed to similar display end-markets.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel 'AI PC' Chips On Track to Drive 2024E PC Supply Chain

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT): The Advanced Technology Nodes Are Looking at Upside in 2024F

TSMC will have full capacity utilization of 3nm and 5nm technology nodes from 1Q24F. For 3nm technology, the EUV mask layer will be reduced. iPhone...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Names Rebound; Memory Crashes; Look for Nvidia Hedges

Taiwan AI names rebounded strongly after having previously suffered declines. Nevertheless, many names have outperformed Nvidia and could be good...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Trading Ranges Working; Short ASE Spread at Latest Level

There has been a general bounce in ADR premiums recently. If they go a bit higher then one can consider shorting TSMC and UMC premiums; we provide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Results Ahead; Taiwan AI Plays Slump But Still Beat Nvidia Last 3 Months

Taiwan's market fell, with previous AI-rally beneficiaries continuing to be some of the top losers. Interestingly, Taiwan AI-names outperformed...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel 'AI PC' Chips On Track to Drive 2024E PC Supply Chain

Many types of existing software that used to require expert users can become more valuable with AI capabilities; we believe tomorrow's AI PC killer...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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