Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip Technologies (3661 TT)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/feng-tay-enterprise-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18329:1" rel="noopener">Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT)</a> in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip</a> is trading 330% higher from a year ago and this inclusion will come on the heels of the stock being added to global indices in second half of 2023.</li>
<li>Short interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip Technologies (3661 TT)</a> has more than halved over the last week and the stock price has moved higher.</li>
</ul>



Alchip Technologies (3661 TT) could replace Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT) in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the March rebalance.

Alchip is trading 330% higher from a year ago and this inclusion will come on the heels of the stock being added to global indices in second half of 2023.
Short interest in Alchip Technologies (3661 TT) has more than halved over the last week and the stock price has moved higher.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Short Covering Drives Alchip (3661 TT) Higher

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD63.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD63.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 2nd): Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue declined by a single-digit percentage quarter over quarter. However, it is expected to improve in the following quarters. </li>
<li>Automotive applications are currently undergoing inventory adjustments, while consumer applications are entering the low season. Electric Vehicle components are expected to continue growing.</li>
<li>It will still maintain the previous payout level of NTD$4.5.</li>
</ul>


Revenue declined by a single-digit percentage quarter over quarter. However, it is expected to improve in the following quarters. 
Automotive applications are currently undergoing inventory adjustments, while consumer applications are entering the low season. Electric Vehicle components are expected to continue growing.
It will still maintain the previous payout level of NTD$4.5.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASEH expects inventory adjustments to be completed in 1H24 and the growth to accelerate in 2H24. ASEH also expects IC-ATM to grow similarly to the semiconductor logic market in 2024H.</li>
<li>The 1Q24F guidance is looking at sales and GM levels for both IC ATM and EMS to be similar to 1Q23 levels.</li>
<li>Most customers will be back on the recovery path by at least 3Q24F.  </li>
</ul>


ASEH expects inventory adjustments to be completed in 1H24 and the growth to accelerate in 2H24. ASEH also expects IC-ATM to grow similarly to the semiconductor logic market in 2024H.
The 1Q24F guidance is looking at sales and GM levels for both IC ATM and EMS to be similar to 1Q23 levels.
Most customers will be back on the recovery path by at least 3Q24F.  


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Expects 2Q24F Back to Normal Seasonality and 2H24 Will Start the Recovery.

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 1Q24F guidance is expected to decrease by 2-3% QoQ. However, we believe there is a good chance of achieving a flat QoQ performance.</li>
<li>Production is expected to be ready by 2027F, with the process likely to be prepared by 2025F and enter pilot run in 2026F.  </li>
<li>The semiconductor market is expected to grow at a high single-digit rate, while the foundry market is expected to grow close to 10% YoY in 2024F.  </li>
</ul>


The 1Q24F guidance is expected to decrease by 2-3% QoQ. However, we believe there is a good chance of achieving a flat QoQ performance.
Production is expected to be ready by 2027F, with the process likely to be prepared by 2025F and enter pilot run in 2026F.  
The semiconductor market is expected to grow at a high single-digit rate, while the foundry market is expected to grow close to 10% YoY in 2024F.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Guidance Is Slightly Lower than 4Q23; Intel Project Grasps Attention

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Short Covering Drives Alchip (3661 TT) Higher

Alchip was added to global indices in the second half of 2023 and could now be added to the Taiwan Top50 ETF. Feng Tay has dropped in price over...

Brian Freitas

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 2nd): Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

Quarterly sales declined but is expected to improve. Auto application are adjusting inventory, while consumer applications are entering a low...

Patrick Liao

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Expects 2Q24F Back to Normal Seasonality and 2H24 Will Start the Recovery.

ASEH anticipates completing inventory adjustments in the first half of 2024. 1Q24F guidance suggests sales and GM levels for IC ATM and EMS will...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Guidance Is Slightly Lower than 4Q23; Intel Project Grasps Attention

The 1Q24F guidance may decrease slightly, but there is potential for a steady performance. Production in Intel's Fab is set for 2027F. Currently,...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Short Covering Drives Alchip (3661 TT) Higher

Alchip was added to global indices in the second half of 2023 and could now be added to the Taiwan Top50 ETF. Feng Tay has dropped in price over...

Brian Freitas

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 2nd): Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

​Quarterly sales declined but is expected to improve. Auto application are adjusting inventory, while consumer applications are entering a low...

Patrick Liao

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Expects 2Q24F Back to Normal Seasonality and 2H24 Will Start the Recovery.

​ASEH anticipates completing inventory adjustments in the first half of 2024. 1Q24F guidance suggests sales and GM levels for IC ATM and EMS will...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Guidance Is Slightly Lower than 4Q23; Intel Project Grasps Attention

The 1Q24F guidance may decrease slightly, but there is potential for a steady performance. Production in Intel's Fab is set for 2027F. Currently,...

Patrick Liao

Quarterly sales declined but is expected to improve. Auto application are adjusting inventory, while consumer applications are entering a low...

ASEH anticipates completing inventory adjustments in the first half of 2024. 1Q24F guidance suggests sales and GM levels for IC ATM and EMS will...