Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.</li>
<li>The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.</li>
<li>TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC's Buy case even more clear, in our view.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.
The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.
TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC's Buy case even more clear, in our view.


TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS is USD$19.62bn/ 53%/ 41.6%/ NT$9.21 in 4Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18-18.8bn/ 52-54%/ 40-42% in 1Q24F guidance.</li>
<li>TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low to mid-twenties YoY.</li>
<li>2024F is expected to be a relatively healthy year for the high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, with robust demand.</li>
</ul>


The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS is USD$19.62bn/ 53%/ 41.6%/ NT$9.21 in 4Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18-18.8bn/ 52-54%/ 40-42% in 1Q24F guidance.
TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low to mid-twenties YoY.
2024F is expected to be a relatively healthy year for the high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, with robust demand.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

<ul>
<li>TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan's Election Result</li>
<li>AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei's Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend</li>
<li>Alchip Technologies GDR Offering - Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year </li>
</ul>


TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan's Election Result
AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei's Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend
Alchip Technologies GDR Offering - Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.</li>
<li>An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.
From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.
An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.


TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues amounted to NT$625,529. In US$ terms, using TSMC’s projected exchange rate of 32, this translates to  $19.55 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ, and a 2% decrease YoY.</li>
<li>FY 2023 revenues amounted to NT$2,161.74 billion, down 4.5% YoY. In US$ terms, this amounted to $69.1 billion, an 8.8% decrease YoY and the first such YoY decrease since 2009</li>
<li>While we foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, we expect full year 2024 revenues to grow in the range of 5-10% YoY. </li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues amounted to NT$625,529. In US$ terms, using TSMC’s projected exchange rate of 32, this translates to  $19.55 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ, and a 2% decrease YoY.
FY 2023 revenues amounted to NT$2,161.74 billion, down 4.5% YoY. In US$ terms, this amounted to $69.1 billion, an 8.8% decrease YoY and the first such YoY decrease since 2009
While we foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, we expect full year 2024 revenues to grow in the range of 5-10% YoY. 


Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

TSMC expects strong growth in sales for 2024, driven by high demand in HPC and AI sectors. TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Finishes 2023 With A Flourish

FY 2023 revenues of ~$69.1 billion, -8.8% YoY & the first YoY decline since 2009. We foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, but expect FY2024...

William Keating

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

​TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

​TSMC expects strong growth in sales for 2024, driven by high demand in HPC and AI sectors. TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

​TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

​Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Finishes 2023 With A Flourish

FY 2023 revenues of ~$69.1 billion, -8.8% YoY & the first YoY decline since 2009. We foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, but expect FY2024...

William Keating

TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

TSMC expects strong growth in sales for 2024, driven by high demand in HPC and AI sectors. TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low...

TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...