Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Massive TSMC Rises 13.8% in Just a Week; Mediatek a Top 10 Gainer for Second Week in a Row</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule. </li>
<li>PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell &amp; HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus </li>
</ul>


Massive TSMC Rises 13.8% in Just a Week; Mediatek a Top 10 Gainer for Second Week in a Row
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule. 
PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell &amp; HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.</li>
<li>In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.


As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> is ramping up its CoWoS capacity, with the aim of increasing new capacity by 32k wafer/month in the end of 2024F.</li>
<li>In the second half of 2024F, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> iPhone 16 will contribute to revenue from shipments.</li>
<li>The semiconductor industry is expected to rebound in 2024F, with TSMC being one of the leaders.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) is ramping up its CoWoS capacity, with the aim of increasing new capacity by 32k wafer/month in the end of 2024F.
In the second half of 2024F, the Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 16 will contribute to revenue from shipments.
The semiconductor industry is expected to rebound in 2024F, with TSMC being one of the leaders.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +22.9% ADR Premium is Near an All-Time High; Long Taiwan Shares vs. Short the ADR</li>
<li>UMC: 2.2% Premium; Flipped Positive From a Discount; Likely to Contract</li>
<li>ASE: +13.3%; Short the Historically High Spread at the Current Level</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +22.9% ADR Premium is Near an All-Time High; Long Taiwan Shares vs. Short the ADR
UMC: 2.2% Premium; Flipped Positive From a Discount; Likely to Contract
ASE: +13.3%; Short the Historically High Spread at the Current Level


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Long TSMC Taiwan Shares Vs. ADR on Historically High Spread; UMC, ASE

<ul>
<li>Mediatek Top Performer; Showcasing New AI Capabilities at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On; Nanya Left Out?</li>
<li>Novatek (3034.TT): It Has Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC</li>
</ul>


Mediatek Top Performer; Showcasing New AI Capabilities at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona
Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On; Nanya Left Out?
Novatek (3034.TT): It Has Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Surges After Showcasing Breathtaking AI Capabilities; Novatek; Nanya

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

TSMC is expanding CoWoS to increase production by 32k wafers/month in 2024E, with Apple iPhone 16 contributing to sales in 2H24. Semiconductor...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Long TSMC Taiwan Shares Vs. ADR on Historically High Spread; UMC, ASE

Investors are advised to Long TSMC's Taiwan shares vs. Short the ADR, while UMC's ADR premium has flipped positive and ASE's spread is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Surges After Showcasing Breathtaking AI Capabilities; Novatek; Nanya

Mediatek top performer as it debuts new AI capabilities at the Mobile World Congress; Competition hotting up for memory chips Nvidia depends on;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

​TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

​TSMC is expanding CoWoS to increase production by 32k wafers/month in 2024E, with Apple iPhone 16 contributing to sales in 2H24. Semiconductor...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Long TSMC Taiwan Shares Vs. ADR on Historically High Spread; UMC, ASE

​Investors are advised to Long TSMC's Taiwan shares vs. Short the ADR, while UMC's ADR premium has flipped positive and ASE's spread is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Surges After Showcasing Breathtaking AI Capabilities; Novatek; Nanya

​Mediatek top performer as it debuts new AI capabilities at the Mobile World Congress; Competition hotting up for memory chips Nvidia depends on;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

TSMC is expanding CoWoS to increase production by 32k wafers/month in 2024E, with Apple iPhone 16 contributing to sales in 2H24. Semiconductor...

Investors are advised to Long TSMC's Taiwan shares vs. Short the ADR, while UMC's ADR premium has flipped positive and ASE's spread is...

Mediatek top performer as it debuts new AI capabilities at the Mobile World Congress; Competition hotting up for memory chips Nvidia depends on;...