Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Thursday, mid-day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7896:1" rel="noopener">Taisei Corp (1801 JP)</a> announced Q2 earnings, and it announced a VERY BIG BUYBACK of up to 30mm shares and up to ¥150bn. That's 16.41% of outstanding.</li>
<li>The share price popped such that the buyback is really only about 10-11%, but that's still a lot. </li>
<li>It is worth looking at the details of this buyback and how it plays out.</li>
</ul>


On Thursday, mid-day, Taisei Corp (1801 JP) announced Q2 earnings, and it announced a VERY BIG BUYBACK of up to 30mm shares and up to ¥150bn. That's 16.41% of outstanding.
The share price popped such that the buyback is really only about 10-11%, but that's still a lot. 
It is worth looking at the details of this buyback and how it plays out.


Taisei (1801 JP) - In-Line Earnings, BIG Buyback, Already In The Price?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.</li>
<li>Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.</li>
<li>Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.</li>
</ul>


Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.
Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.
Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.


Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

<ul>
<li>Watch for a 'megaquake' reversal after a big rotation for names deemed to be winners/losers on Friday on heightened expectations for a major Nankai Trough earthquake over the w/e</li>
<li>Retail related should rebound sharply after a solid 1Q showing from 3099 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi</a>, with several related names yet to rebound on concerns the stronger yen will curb tourist spending.</li>
<li>1911 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9769:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry</a> business briefing Friday confirms the strength of its US housing business, with it likely to easily exceed its latest MTP.</li>
</ul>


Watch for a 'megaquake' reversal after a big rotation for names deemed to be winners/losers on Friday on heightened expectations for a major Nankai Trough earthquake over the w/e
Retail related should rebound sharply after a solid 1Q showing from 3099 Isetan Mitsukoshi, with several related names yet to rebound on concerns the stronger yen will curb tourist spending.
1911 Sumitomo Forestry business briefing Friday confirms the strength of its US housing business, with it likely to easily exceed its latest MTP.


Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)</a>'s proposal suggests more upside to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>'s minorities than originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona Group (2168 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>It's all over for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> folds it tent. </li>
<li>Cho Hyun-Sik (eldest son of Cho Yang-Rae, Chairman of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a> has joined MBK Partners in making a partial Tender Offer for Hankook &amp; Co.</li>
</ul>



Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)'s proposal suggests more upside to Benefit One (2412 JP)'s minorities than originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona Group (2168 JP).
It's all over for EOFlow (294090 KS), as Medtronic Plc (MDT US) folds it tent. 
Cho Hyun-Sik (eldest son of Cho Yang-Rae, Chairman of Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS) has joined MBK Partners in making a partial Tender Offer for Hankook &amp; Co.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

Ps Mitsubishi Construction / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Partial Offer launched last month by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7896:1" rel="noopener">Taisei Corp (1801 JP)</a> to take a 50.2% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ps-mitsubishi-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16582:1" rel="noopener">Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)</a> ends at the beginning of next week.</li>
<li>This hasn't been a very "exciting" trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. </li>
<li>Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.</li>
</ul>


The Partial Offer launched last month by Taisei Corp (1801 JP) to take a 50.2% stake in Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) ends at the beginning of next week.
This hasn't been a very "exciting" trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. 
Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.


P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

Japan

TAISEI CORPORATION is a general contractor operating nationwide and overseas. The Company builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings such as condominiums and single-family houses.  Taisei also performs civil engineering works for roads.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates real estate, resort development, and financial businesses.

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Taisei Corp (1801 JP)

Taisei (1801 JP) - In-Line Earnings, BIG Buyback, Already In The Price?

Taisei last week announced in-line earnings with a cross-holding sale kicker. Other guidance is unchanged, and remains... meh? Shares have moved...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

Andrew Jackson

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

Taisei's Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi (1871) has engendered a LOT of volume over the last three weeks. That suggests to me participation will be...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Taisei (1801 JP) - In-Line Earnings, BIG Buyback, Already In The Price?

Taisei last week announced in-line earnings with a cross-holding sale kicker. Other guidance is unchanged, and remains... meh? Shares have moved...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

​Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

​Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

Andrew Jackson

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

Taisei's Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi (1871) has engendered a LOT of volume over the last three weeks. That suggests to me participation will be...

Travis Lundy

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...