Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Overnight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)</a> announced a placement of 85.37m shares to unwind crossholdings and improve corporate value. There is an overallotment option for another 12.8m shares.</li>
<li>There will be limited passive buying in the short-term and the number of shares offered is a very large percentage of real float of the stock.</li>
<li>A price drop of 20% or more puts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)</a> at risk of deletion from a global index and could lead to a further price drop.</li>
</ul>


Overnight, Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) announced a placement of 85.37m shares to unwind crossholdings and improve corporate value. There is an overallotment option for another 12.8m shares.
There will be limited passive buying in the short-term and the number of shares offered is a very large percentage of real float of the stock.
A price drop of 20% or more puts Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) at risk of deletion from a global index and could lead to a further price drop.


Hulic Co (3003 JP) Placement: One Big Price Drop Could Lead to Another

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of domestic financial institutions are looking to raise US$775m from trimming their stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The deal will be a large one to digest at 48 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 11% of its shares outstanding.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


A group of domestic financial institutions are looking to raise US$775m from trimming their stakes in Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP).
The deal will be a large one to digest at 48 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 11% of its shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Hulic Co Placement - US$780m Cross-Shareholding Unwind Is a Large One for the Stock to Digest

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)</a> announced a large secondary offering where about a quarter of the crossholdings will sell down holdings. Some exit entirely. Some partially. </li>
<li>After this selldown, there is a fair bit more to go later, but more of that will be corporate. It's a BIG offering: 55d of ADV and 55% of MRWF. </li>
<li>It is "only" about $800mm and retail gets 80% of it. The high div yield will be a selling point but there is a lot of debt.</li>
</ul>


Today, Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) announced a large secondary offering where about a quarter of the crossholdings will sell down holdings. Some exit entirely. Some partially. 
After this selldown, there is a fair bit more to go later, but more of that will be corporate. It's a BIG offering: 55d of ADV and 55% of MRWF. 
It is "only" about $800mm and retail gets 80% of it. The high div yield will be a selling point but there is a lot of debt.


HULIC (3003 JP) - Crossholders Show Up with a BIG (Relative) Secondary Offering

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 85.4 million shares (98.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$800 million (US$920 million including overallotment).</li>
<li>Unlike the 2021 offer, this is a pure secondary offering. It is smaller in terms of outstanding shares and 1-year ADV. The shares are hovering around all-time highs.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 10 and 12 December (likely 10 December).</li>
</ul>



Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 85.4 million shares (98.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$800 million (US$920 million including overallotment).
Unlike the 2021 offer, this is a pure secondary offering. It is smaller in terms of outstanding shares and 1-year ADV. The shares are hovering around all-time highs.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 10 and 12 December (likely 10 December).


Hulic (3033 JP): A US$800 Million Secondary Offering

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Japan

Hulic Company, Limited. operates real estate business and marketable securities investment business.  The Company also conducts environment related businesses.

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Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)

Hulic Co (3003 JP) Placement: One Big Price Drop Could Lead to Another

The secondary offering in Hulic is US$793m and represents 43x ADV and 37% of real float. A large price drops raises risk of deletion from a global...

Brian Freitas

Hulic Co Placement - US$780m Cross-Shareholding Unwind Is a Large One for the Stock to Digest

A group of domestic financial institutions are looking to raise US$775m from trimming their stakes in Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP).

Clarence Chu

HULIC (3003 JP) - Crossholders Show Up with a BIG (Relative) Secondary Offering

Hulic is seeing crossholders sell down. Given all active holders together only own about 25% of the stock, a 13% offering means underwriters have...

Travis Lundy

Hulic (3033 JP): A US$800 Million Secondary Offering

Unlike the 2021 offer, this is a pure secondary offering. It is smaller in terms of outstanding shares and 1-year ADV. The shares are hovering...

Arun George

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

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