Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a></strong> dangles bonuses for pilots and first officers amid Hong Kong's stringent crew quarantine requirements. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Cathay - and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a></strong>- are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) dangles bonuses for pilots and first officers amid Hong Kong's stringent crew quarantine requirements. 
Preceding my comments on Cathay - and Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)- are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Cathay Pacific - Still Grounded

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Orient Overseas International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March review of the HSCI ends on 31 December. There are expected to be a lot more inclusions than deletions at the review.</li>
<li>There are quite a few stocks that should be included following their listing over the last couple of months while others are now potential inclusions after passing the velocity test.</li>
<li>Quite a few of the potential deletions from the HSCI and Stock Connect have large holdings via Southbound Stock Connect and these stock could see some selling.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March review of the HSCI ends on 31 December. There are expected to be a lot more inclusions than deletions at the review.
There are quite a few stocks that should be included following their listing over the last couple of months while others are now potential inclusions after passing the velocity test.
Quite a few of the potential deletions from the HSCI and Stock Connect have large holdings via Southbound Stock Connect and these stock could see some selling.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: More Inclusions than Exclusions in March

<ul>
<li>In its latest traffic figure <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/1117/2021111700289.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">release</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> said it's been able to achieve close to operating cash breakeven for the four-month period from July to October 2021.</li>
<li>Cathay carried a total of 76,430 passengers in October, an increase of 98.3% compared to October 2020, but a 97.2% decrease compared to the pre-pandemic level in October 2019.</li>
<li>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>'s discount to NAV of ~50% is bang in line with its 12-month average.</li>
</ul>


In its latest traffic figure release, Cathay Pacific (293 HK) said it's been able to achieve close to operating cash breakeven for the four-month period from July to October 2021.
Cathay carried a total of 76,430 passengers in October, an increase of 98.3% compared to October 2020, but a 97.2% decrease compared to the pre-pandemic level in October 2019.
Separately, Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)'s discount to NAV of ~50% is bang in line with its 12-month average.


Swire Pac (19 HK): Cathay's Operating Cash (Almost) Breaking Even

Last Week in Event SPACE:  Swire, Hitachi Metal, Jardine, Softbank, Bingo, Japan Asia, Mainstream

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> has gained 78% from its low at the end of October last year, compared to 13% for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> and 20% for the HSI.</p>
<p>Swire's NAV discount has been narrower in the past, but it's questionable how much reliance can be placed on historical data.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Preceding my comments on Swire are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
<div><hr></div>
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<div>
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) has gained 78% from its low at the end of October last year, compared to 13% for Swire Properties (1972 HK) and 20% for the HSI.
Swire's NAV discount has been narrower in the past, but it's questionable how much reliance can be placed on historical data.



Preceding my comments on Swire are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.




These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.



Hong Kong

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in real estate properties. The Company also owns and manages hotels and operates logistics business. In addition, the Wharf operates telecommunication business, cable television, and Internet-related businesses.

Henderson Land Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and manages properties. The Company also provides project management, construction, and finance services. In addition, Henderson Land Development operates department stores, hotels, and infrastructure business.

Swire Properties Limited develops and manages commercial, retail, and residential properties. The Company's investment portfolio includes office and retail premises, and serviced apartments and other residential accommodation.

Hongkong Land is a major listed property investment, management and development group. 

The Group owns and manages more than 850,000 sq. m. of prime office and luxury retail property in key Asian cities, principally in Hong Kong, Singapore, Beijing and Jakarta.  The Group also has a number of high quality residential, commercial, and mixed-use projects under development in cities across Greater China and Southeast Asia.  In Singapore, its subsidiary, MCL Land, is a well-established residential developer.  

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited is incorporated in Bermuda and has a standard listing on the London Stock Exchange, with secondary listings in Bermuda and Singapore.  The Group’s assets and investments are managed from Hong Kong by Hongkong Land Limited.  Hongkong Land is a member of the Jardine Matheson Group.

Sino Land Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties, trades and invests in securities, and provides financing services. The Company also operates hotels and provides building management services.

CK Asset Holdings Limited operates real estate businesses. The Company provides real estate development, leasing, marketing, property management, and hotel serviced suite services domestically and internationally. CK Asset Holdings also operates real estate investment trust, aircraft leasing, and assets management businesses.

Swire Pacific Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on real estate, aviation, beverage, industrial, marine services, trading, and industrial businesses. Swire Pacific operates worldwide.

Hang Lung Properties Limited, through its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, and manages properties. The Company also manages parking lots. Hang Lung Properties serves customers in Hong Kong.

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Tsim Sha Tsui Properties Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and sells properties.  The Company also provides management services, operates hotels, trades securities, and provides financing services.

SM Prime Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, is engaged in residential property, shopping malls, offices, hotels and convention centers development.

Ayala Land is the largest property developer in the Philippines with a track record in developing large-scale, integrated, mixed-use, and sustainable estates. It offers a balanced and complementary mix of residential developments, shopping centers, offices, hotels and resorts, construction, property management and strategic investments.

DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY CO., LTD. designs and builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings.  The Company constructs single-family houses, collective housings, condominiums, stores, office buildings, factories, and hospitals. DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY also operates real estate businesses. The Company, through its subsidiaries, manages hotels and golf country clubs.

Hulic Company, Limited. operates real estate business and marketable securities investment business.  The Company also conducts environment related businesses.

Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd. develops, manages, and sells houses and condominiums.  The Company also develops and manages real estates in overseas. Sumitomo Realty & Development undertakes infrastructure projects, manages real estate properties, and provides financing services to its customers.  The Company operates fitness clubs and restaurants as well.

Godrej Properties, Ltd. is a real estate development company.

Oberoi Realty LTD., is a real estate development company operating in Mumbai, focused on premium developments. The Company's main focus is residential projects but they also have a diversified portfolio of projects covering segments of the real estate market, which target the upper end of the respective income or market segment.

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. mainly develops and sells residential homes. The company is also in the business of leasing and rental of real estates, and property management.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd (600048 CH)

Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated provides real estate and investment management services.  The Company serves multinationals, corporations, institutions, occupiers, and investors from offices in markets located around the world. Jones Lang provides services such as tenant representation, property management, agency leasing, finance, and valuations.

Swire Pacific Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates in the real estate, aviation, beverage, industrial, marine services, trading, and industrial businesses.

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Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)

StubWorld: Cathay Pacific - Still Grounded

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HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: More Inclusions than Exclusions in March

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Swire Pac (19 HK): Cathay's Operating Cash (Almost) Breaking Even

I tilt bullish on Swire Pac. Around a 50% discount is wide given its tendency to historically trade in the low-to-mid twenties. I'm still not...

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The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

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StubWorld: Swire Pac's Outperformance

A 34% discount to NAV for Swire Pac compares to the low-to-mid twenties historically. But that was before the protests and COVID. I believe there...

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