IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

We have dug into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> consensus forecasts and believe that estimates may be too optimistic in relation to operating profit due to a number of factors. More details can be found below the fold.

We have dug into Alibaba Group (9988 HK) consensus forecasts and believe that estimates may be too optimistic in relation to operating profit due to a number of factors. More details can be found below the fold. 

Alibaba – Potential Flaws in Consensus Forecasts?

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Given the significant uncertainty surrounding 1) the impact that a regulatory-induced restructuring could have on the eventually listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>, and 2) the full final impact of increased anti-monopoly regulatory efforts from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, it has been difficult to assess a fair valuation level for the company. Following the indefinite suspension of Ant Group’s IPO, in November 2020, we witnessed a c.30% sell-off (or $260bn!) in Alibaba Group’s share price, before starting its recovery back to current levels, triggered by the reappearance of Jack Ma and a solid earnings report for the quarter ended December 2020. The net result, however, has been a roughly 17% (or $140bn) decline in Alibaba’s listed value. In this insight, I take a deep dive into Alibaba’s Sum-of-The-Parts valuation to assess what implied value is currently priced in for their equity holding in Ant Group, and what can be deduced from the current valuation for their Core Commerce operations.

Given the significant uncertainty surrounding 1) the impact that a regulatory-induced restructuring could have on the eventually listed Ant Group (6688 HK), and 2) the full final impact of increased anti-monopoly regulatory efforts from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) on the Alibaba Group (9988 HK), it has been difficult to assess a fair valuation level for the company. Following the indefinite suspension of Ant Group’s IPO, in November 2020, we witnessed a c.30% sell-off (or $260bn!) in Alibaba Group’s share price, before starting its recovery back to current levels, triggered by the reappearance of Jack Ma and a solid earnings report for the quarter ended December 2020. The net result, however, has been a roughly 17% (or $140bn) decline in Alibaba’s listed value. In this insight, I take a deep dive into Alibaba’s Sum-of-The-Parts valuation to assess what implied value is currently priced in for their equity holding in Ant Group, and what can be deduced from the current valuation for their Core Commerce operations.

Alibaba: A Detailed Look at the SOTP, and What that Tells Us About the Ant Group and Core Commerce

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>’s share price took a beating over the last few months. It began when Chinese regulators halted the $35 billion IPO of Alibaba spinoff, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>, the world's largest financial technology company. Afterwards, China’s top antitrust watchdog, The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), fined Alibaba for not making adequate declarations to authorities about past acquisitions and also filled an investigation into Alibaba’s suspected monopolistic practices. Then, The People's Bank of China ordered Ant group to formulate a rectification plan and an implementation timetable to comply with new regulatory and anti-monopoly requirements. Meanwhile, the founder of Alibaba, Jack Ma went missing for months.This is probably the worst time period in Alibaba’s history. Therefore, a lot of pressure was on Alibaba yesterday to release strong 3QFY21 results. Although not amazing, the company managed to beat consensus revenue and OP by 3.0% and 3.2% respectively.

Alibaba Group (BABA US)’s share price took a beating over the last few months. It began when Chinese regulators halted the $35 billion IPO of Alibaba spinoff, Ant Group (6688 HK), the world's largest financial technology company. Afterwards, China’s top antitrust watchdog, The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), fined Alibaba for not making adequate declarations to authorities about past acquisitions and also filled an investigation into Alibaba’s suspected monopolistic practices. Then, The People's Bank of China ordered Ant group to formulate a rectification plan and an implementation timetable to comply with new regulatory and anti-monopoly requirements. Meanwhile, the founder of Alibaba, Jack Ma went missing for months.This is probably the worst time period in Alibaba’s history. Therefore, a lot of pressure was on Alibaba yesterday to release strong 3QFY21 results. Although not amazing, the company managed to beat consensus revenue and OP by 3.0% and 3.2% respectively.

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The recent lockdown in Hong Kong proves that unless everyone is vaccinated, the risk of a lockdown remains. Although it is over within 48 hours, the HK SAR government does not rule out the possibility of similar actions taking place in the future. 
<div class="content-highlight">
For Long Only Investor - Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26062:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Foods (1475 HK)</a> may not a superior return especially when Hong Kong is in the second outbreak but it will serve as a hedge when another lockdown is proposed.
For Long Short Investor - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cafe-de-coral-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2568:1" rel="noopener">Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK)</a> is well known to be the go-to tea house for Hong Kong residents thus a lockdown in a few places will affect their business which means slower recovery and their home delivery service is not exactly performing well either. 
</div>

The recent lockdown in Hong Kong proves that unless everyone is vaccinated, the risk of a lockdown remains. Although it is over within 48 hours, the HK SAR government does not rule out the possibility of similar actions taking place in the future. 

For Long Only Investor - Going long Nissin Foods (1475 HK) may not a superior return especially when Hong Kong is in the second outbreak but it will serve as a hedge when another lockdown is proposed.
For Long Short Investor - Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK) is well known to be the go-to tea house for Hong Kong residents thus a lockdown in a few places will affect their business which means slower recovery and their home delivery service is not exactly performing well either. 


HK Lockdown Ideas: Long Nissin Food and Short Cafe De Coral

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven


For the month of December, 19 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 
Toiletries
0.3
Possible Scheme
24.7%


Asaleo (ASX: AHY)/Essity: Bottom Feeders







amaysim Australia (AYS AU) 
Mobile operator
0.2
Off-market takeover




Amaysim/WAM: A Question Of Franking Credits
Amaysim (AYS AU): A WAM RAM Stoush




WPP AUNZ (WPP AU) 
Marketing
0.1
Scheme
71%



WPP AUNZ: Mad Men At Work WPP AUNZ: More Mad Men At Work







Hong Kong




China Logistics Property (1589 HK) 
Logistics

Possible Offer



China Logistics (1589 HK): Possible Offer As Major Shareholders Seek Exit



Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK) 
Parts supplier
0.6
Possible MGO
2.98%


Cowell (1415 HK): "Maintain Listing" MGO



Huifu Payment Limited (1806 HK) 
Service provider
0.1
Scheme
26.8%



Huifu Payment (1806 HK): Scheme Offer
Huifu Payment (1806 HK): Early Withdrawal?




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 
Fashion
0.2
Scheme
54.6%


I.T. (999 HK): Management/CVC-Led Offer



SHK Hong Kong Industries (666 HK) 
Securities
0.1
Scheme
50.0%


SHK (666 HK): Allied Group Further Cleans House With Scheme Offer






Japan




Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) 
Refiner
0.2
Tender Offer
23%


Idemitsu Launches Lowball Tender Offer for Subsidiary Toa Oil (5008)










Malaysia




FGV Holdings Bhd (FGV MK) 
Palm Plantation
0.6
MTO
2.4%



FGV Holdings: Reading the Palm Fronds
FGV Holdings: Low-Ball MTO Triggered











New Zealand




Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) 
Utilities
3.8
Possible Scheme
22.2%


Infratil (IFT NZ): Big Super's Infrastructure Grab






Philippines




Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM) 
Utilities
0.2
Vol. delisting
25%


Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM): Reverse Voluntary Delisting










Singapore




Hi P International (HIP SP) 
Manufacturing
0.2
Unconditional Offer
13.6%


Hi-P International: Unconditional Offer



Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SBREIT SP) 
REIT
0.4
Scheme



Soilbuild REIT: Offer From Blackstone/Lim Family










Taiwan




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 
Finance
1.8
Tender Offer
18.7%


Fubon Financial Tender Offer for Jih Sun Financial



Thinflex Corp (3144 TT) 
Manufacturing
0.1
Partial Offer
7.15%


Arisawa (5208 JP) Partial Tender for ThinFlex (3144 TT)










Europe




Calisen PLC (1779730D LN) 
Energy
1.9
Cash Offer
26.3%


Recommended Private Equity Cash Offer



Recipharm AB (RECIB SS) 
Pharmaceuticals
2.8
Mandatory Offer
22.9%


Recipharm-EQT Takeout



Tele Columbus AG (TC1 GR) 
Fibre networks
0.5
Voluntary Offer
41.3%


Tele Columbus AG - Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Agreed Bid


Source: Smartkarma Insights 




The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~27% and the YTD average premium for all deals discussed on Smartkarma (158 all-in) is ~31%.  The average for all deals discussed on Smartkarma in 2019 (145 deals all-in) was, coincidentally, 31.5%.


The charts below provide a snapshot of deals YTD discussed on Smartkarma. Where the deal is a merger of equals or similar, I've assigned no premium.







Summary of News in December of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

No December update




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

23-Dec: Cardinal Resources: Shandong's Indicative Bump
24-Dec: Cardinal Resources (CDV AU). Exit Nord Gold, Enter Dongshan.




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

No December update




DWS Ltd (DWS AU) 

24-Dec: Scheme effective




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

7-Dec: Link Admin (LNK AU): SS&amp;C Trumps PEP/Carlyle




Northern Star Resources (NST AU) 

10-Dec: Scheme book registered with ASIC for the Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) / Northern Star Resources (NST AU) merger. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.




Regis Healthcare (REG AU) 

No December update




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

No December update




Village Roadshow (VRL AU) 

4-Dec: BGH declares Offer for Village Roadshow (VRL AU) "best and final".   7-Dec: Both resolutions passed - 83.71% for Structure A and 84.95% for Structure B. Trading in Village Roadshow (VRL AU) to be suspended at the close of trading on the 16 December. 




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

No December update











Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 

8-Dec: Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK)'s composite doc delayed, as expected, to 31 Dec (on or before), from 8 Dec.
31-Dec: Composite doc is now out. THe H share class meeting is the 19 Feb. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable. 




Car Inc (699 HK) 
4-Dec: Car Inc (699 HK) has delayed the despatch of its Composite Doc to "within 7 days of fulfilment of the Pre-Conditions or 21 May 2021 (being 7 days following the No December update



CIMC-TianDa Holdings (445 HK) 
24-Dec: Scheme approved




Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) 

10-Dec: StubWorld: Last Roll Of The Dice For Haier




Hengxing Gold Holding (2303 HK) 

22-Dec: Scheme Document has now been issued. The EGM is the 13 January. First day of dealing in the new SDGM H shares is the 5 February. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.




Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 

5-Dec: Pre-cons fulfilled for the Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) Offer. Composite Doc to be despatched on or before the 11 December. 
10-Dec: Offer doc despatched.




Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) 

18-Dec: The MGO for Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) has closed with Alibaba holding 83.37%. The free float has fallen to 15.8159%. Alibaba will take steps to restore the float. Shares will continue to trade. 












India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

No December update




Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) 

No December update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

2-Dec: INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) has been on a tear since just before earnings on 10 November.  The stock is up nearly 40% since the beginning of November.  Standalone net profit rose 262%yoy in the quarter to Rs 35.84 crore. Sales were down 10%yoy to Rs 394.58 crore.











Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No December update



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

No December update




Imasen Electric Industrial (7266 JP) 

9-Dec: The results of the Imasen Electric Industrial (7266 JP) Tender Offer have been announced. 7.161mm shares were tendered against a 5.209mm share buy which means a 72.75% pro-ration. 




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

11-Dec: City Index Eleventh is now 14.91% of the register at Japan Asia (3751 JP).




Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 

25-Dec: The bidder for Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) announced a change in the end date for the Tender Offer, changing the end date from 28 December 2020 to 25 January 2021.  28-Dec: Today Black Clover Limited reported that they had increased their position in Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) to 10.97%. 




Kansai Mirai Financial (7321 JP) 

10-Dec: The Tender Offer for Kansai Mirai Financial (7321 JP), interestingly, ended up gaining more shares tendered than the minimum. 34.44mm showed up. The pro-ration is 100% so no issues there, but it likely means other cross-holders decided to take the cash.




Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) 

17-Dec:  UGS and Strategic extended their partial tender offer for Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) from 17 Dec 2020 to 12 Jan 2021. It is not clear why - if the shares fall a bit, they could get hit, otherwise this is destined to be unsuccessful. 




Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) 

7-Dec: Fidelity was a 9+% holder of Kenedix Inc (4321 JP)  prior to the Tender Offer being launched and today reported that they are a 0.92% holder triggered by a change effective on 30 November.




Medical &amp; Biological Laboratories (4557 JP) 

No December update




NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) 

2-Dec: The NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) selldown for TOPIX was expected to be 30-33mm shares. We saw 34.8mm shares on the day which is about 26-28mm shares more than normal. That should be the last of the Docomo selling by passive. From now until month-end it is basically just the residual and arbs selling to each other.




Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) 

11-Dec: It appears that DCM Holdings (3050 JP) has not extended the Tender Offer for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) which they had extended until today.  That suggests they are done with their bid, or that they will go in partnership to launch a new one.  I expect it is the former.
14-Dec: DCM Holdings (3050 JP)'s Tender Offer lapses.  They needed 19+mm shares to succeed. They got 32,000.  Nothing done here.  It looks like Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)'s bid for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) goes through.
29-Dec: Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) today announced that it had successfully completed the Tender Offer for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP), gaining 77.04% of the shares outstanding. 




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

No December update




Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) 

No December update




Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 

1-Dec: Tokyo Dome – Assessing the Realism of Oasis Estimates
3-Dec: ISS Takes Umbrage with Tokyo Dome, Recommends Booting the CEO from the Board
8-Dec: Oasis Agrees To Tender Tokyo Dome (9681) - This Changes Things
17-Dec: Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) announces Tender Agreement with Oasis on Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 




Yomiuri Land (9671 JP) 

No December update










Malaysia


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) 

No December update











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements)




ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (SSREITR SP) 

6-Dec: Chalk one up for investors as the ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT (SSREIT SP) merger is voted down.













Thailand


Comments 




COL PCL (COL TB) 
No December update












Middle East


Comments 




Samba Financial Group (SAMBA AB) /
National Commercial Bank (NCB AB) 

No December update










Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Ahlstrom-Munksjo (AM1 FH) 
No December update



Altice NV A (ATC NA) 


16-Dec: Next Private increases offer price to EUR 5.35 Boussard &amp; Gavaudan, Diameter, Elliott, LB Partners, Lucerne, Sessa, Sheffield and Winterbrook commit to tender their Listed Shares under the Offer.




Aryzta AG (ARYN VX) 


No December update




CaixaBank SA (CABK SM) 
7-Dec: CaixaBank - Bankia: Merger Approval at the EGMs, Spread




Entra ASA (ENTRA NO) 

28-Dec: Entra - SBB - Castellum: Bidding War Heats Up




G4S PLC (GFS LN) 

2-Dec: GardaWorld has increased its offer for G4S PLC (GFS LN) to GBp 235/ share and has said that the new offer is final and will not be increased further.
8-Dec: G4S has agreed to a 245 pence per share takeover offer from U.S.-based Allied Universal, the companies said on Tuesday, days after Canada’s GardaWorld had sweetened its bid to 235 pence per share for the British company.
11-Dec: Allied Universal's Agreed Offer




Globalwafers (6488 TT) 
21-Dec: GlobalWafers Cash Offer




Play Communications SA (1P1 GR) 
No December update



RSA Insurance (RSA LN) 
No December update



Talktalk Telecom (TALK LN) 
No December update



William Hill (WMH LN) 
No December update





Hong Kong

Sun Art Retail Group Ltd. operates hypermarkets.  The Company retails food and offers amenities such as restaurants, automated teller machines, pharmacies and dry cleaners.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)

Alibaba – Potential Flaws in Consensus Forecasts?

We have dug into Alibaba Group (9988 HK) consensus forecasts and believe that estimates may be too optimistic in relation to operating profit due...

Rickin Thakrar

Alibaba: A Detailed Look at the SOTP, and What that Tells Us About the Ant Group and Core Commerce

In this insight, I take a deep dive into Alibaba’s Sum-of-The-Parts to assess the implied value for their equity holding in Ant Group, and what can...

Wium Malan, CFA

Alibaba 3QFY21: Not Out of The Woods Yet

This is probably the worst time period in Alibaba’s history. Therefore, a lot of pressure was on Alibaba yesterday to release strong 3QFY21...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

HK Lockdown Ideas: Long Nissin Food and Short Cafe De Coral

The recent lockdown in HK proves that unless everyone is vaccinated, the risk remains. The HK SAR government does not rule out the possibility of...

Henry Soediarko

(Mostly) Asia M&A: 2020 Roundup

The average premium for the 19 new deals discussed on Smartkarma in December was ~27% and the YTD average premium for all 158 deals is ~31%. The...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)