Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  EUR STOXX600 -1% as hikes, recession fears, overbought markets sap risk;  US-China Tensions Eases after Blinken China Trip; Ford Chairman Says US still can't Compete with China on EVs</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off;  Interest in investing in Japan spreading to start-ups; Uniqlo headwinds-China, China</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nikkei reported that Japanese Retail (Mrs Watanabe) fx traders turned momentum in FX; Watch for when that happens in Equities...</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  EUR STOXX600 -1% as hikes, recession fears, overbought markets sap risk;  US-China Tensions Eases after Blinken China Trip; Ford Chairman Says US still can't Compete with China on EVs
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off;  Interest in investing in Japan spreading to start-ups; Uniqlo headwinds-China, China
NUGGET. Nikkei reported that Japanese Retail (Mrs Watanabe) fx traders turned momentum in FX; Watch for when that happens in Equities...


Ohayo Japan| Europe Sells Off; NUGGET: Mrs Watanabe-Now Momentum FX; Watch for Retail Equity Shift

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>With food inflation exceeding 8% in December, prices have become the focus for all supermarket retailing. </li>
<li>This is good news for those that are set up for price competition but it presents a serious challenge to the majority of chains.</li>
<li>The net result will be a widening gap in performance between the best and rest, with the former delivering both top line growth and rising margins.</li>
</ul>


With food inflation exceeding 8% in December, prices have become the focus for all supermarket retailing. 
This is good news for those that are set up for price competition but it presents a serious challenge to the majority of chains.
The net result will be a widening gap in performance between the best and rest, with the former delivering both top line growth and rising margins.


Japan's Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> reported Q3 earnings Friday afternoon during the market session. Like at Q2, they upped their fiscal-year forecast to well above Street consensus.</li>
<li>Also like Q2, they announced a buyback - this one an extension in time, shares, and money on the one already in place, raising the total Core CashFlow Payout Ratio.</li>
<li>This creates interesting index flows over the next several months, and other trading cos have live buybacks too.</li>
</ul>



Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) reported Q3 earnings Friday afternoon during the market session. Like at Q2, they upped their fiscal-year forecast to well above Street consensus.
Also like Q2, they announced a buyback - this one an extension in time, shares, and money on the one already in place, raising the total Core CashFlow Payout Ratio.
This creates interesting index flows over the next several months, and other trading cos have live buybacks too.


Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 - Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Kepco Engineering & Construction / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There are 6 adds and 5 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is in excess of 12% and will result in a one-way trade of US$207m. There are 11 stocks with estimated passive flows greater than 5x ADV.</li>
<li>Some of the inclusions have had BIG rallies over the last couple of months and there could be profit taking on those names in the next few days.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There are 6 adds and 5 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 January.
Estimated one-way turnover is in excess of 12% and will result in a one-way trade of US$207m. There are 11 stocks with estimated passive flows greater than 5x ADV.
Some of the inclusions have had BIG rallies over the last couple of months and there could be profit taking on those names in the next few days.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes

Sumitomo Precision Products / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5380:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP)</a> announced a bid for equity affiliate (they own 27+% but Nippon Steel 15%, top 2 is 40+%) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-precision-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5797:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Precision Products (6355 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>It's a one-year high and 4-year high price, and 8x average 10yr EV/EBITDA but 4.6x 2024e EBITDA from the Mid Term Plan. And way below a 10-year high. </li>
<li>This gets done if Retail agrees to the tender. If 50% put in, that should do it. So I expect this gets done.</li>
</ul>


On Friday, Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) announced a bid for equity affiliate (they own 27+% but Nippon Steel 15%, top 2 is 40+%) Sumitomo Precision Products (6355 JP). 
It's a one-year high and 4-year high price, and 8x average 10yr EV/EBITDA but 4.6x 2024e EBITDA from the Mid Term Plan. And way below a 10-year high. 
This gets done if Retail agrees to the tender. If 50% put in, that should do it. So I expect this gets done.


Sumitomo Precision Products (6355) Buyout by Sumitomo Corp - Likely To Get Done

Japan

Sumitomo Corp is a general trading company.  The Company imports and exports a wide variety of goods such as metals, machinery, chemicals, fuel,food products, and textiles.  Sumitomo also operates real estate, construction, shipping, insurance, finance, and leasing businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP)

Ohayo Japan| Europe Sells Off; NUGGET: Mrs Watanabe-Now Momentum FX; Watch for Retail Equity Shift

Europe DOWN; US out; NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off; Interest in investing in Japan...

Mark Chadwick

Japan's Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption

With Trial's IPO looming and inflation at record highs, Japan's supermarket sector is a sector ripe for disruption as pricing pressures widen the...

Michael Causton

Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 - Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition

Mitsui had a great Q3, forecasting an even better Q4. It announced a new Buyback to pay out 100% of incremental Net Profit, 142% of incremental...

Travis Lundy

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes

There are 6 adds & 5 deletes for the Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index tracked by the URA ETF. One-way turnover is in excess of...

Brian Freitas

Sumitomo Precision Products (6355) Buyout by Sumitomo Corp - Likely To Get Done

Sumitomo Corp has launched a takeover bid for Sumitomo Precision Products (6355). I expect they have half the votes they need in the bag, and the...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)