Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>The review period ends tomorrow, so most changes are high probability. Though there are some changes that will be up to the discretion of the index committee.</li>
<li>There will be a lot of stock to trade on the changes to the ASX200 and indices higher up the hierarchy. But there will be a lot of pre-positioning too.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
The review period ends tomorrow, so most changes are high probability. Though there are some changes that will be up to the discretion of the index committee.
There will be a lot of stock to trade on the changes to the ASX200 and indices higher up the hierarchy. But there will be a lot of pre-positioning too.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare</a> has entered into a scheme implementation deed with TPG at A$12.7/share. This is higher than the initial offer of A$12.65/share but lower than the revised offer of A$13/share.</li>
<li>There is an extra A$0.26/share in franking credits for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> shareholders that can use them.</li>
<li>Passives will need to sell nearly 11m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> on the last trading day and there will be an adhoc inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>



Invocare has entered into a scheme implementation deed with TPG at A$12.7/share. This is higher than the initial offer of A$12.65/share but lower than the revised offer of A$13/share.
There is an extra A$0.26/share in franking credits for Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) shareholders that can use them.
Passives will need to sell nearly 11m shares of Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) on the last trading day and there will be an adhoc inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index.


InvoCare (IVC AU): SID Signed with TPG at A$12.7/Share

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> will likely buy back more shares than previously expected as the government sells shares down. Buy dips vs peers KDDI and Softbank Corp. This is a long-term tilt.</li>
<li>There are some doubts over the fate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)</a>'s SET50 membership, at present, but it should escape deletion in December 2023. </li>
<li>Don't punt <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> on the off-chance of a change of control in the wake pf the Forrest split. If anything, there might be a leakage of shares.</li>
</ul>



NTT (9432 JP) will likely buy back more shares than previously expected as the government sells shares down. Buy dips vs peers KDDI and Softbank Corp. This is a long-term tilt.
There are some doubts over the fate of Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)'s SET50 membership, at present, but it should escape deletion in December 2023. 
Don't punt Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) on the off-chance of a change of control in the wake pf the Forrest split. If anything, there might be a leakage of shares.


Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate

<ul>
<li>O&amp;G junior <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talon-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15556:1" rel="noopener">Talon Energy (TPD AU)</a> announced it had received a non-binding Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>. 
</li>
<li>The all-scrip bid - by way of a Scheme - entailed an implied A$0.20/share in Strike shares plus Talon shareholders retaining their holding in Talon’s Mongolia gas project.</li>
<li>After Talon said it intended to undertake a process of evaluation of the Proposal before offering due diligence, Strike promptly withdrew its bid.</li>
</ul>


O&amp;G junior Talon Energy (TPD AU) announced it had received a non-binding Offer from Strike Energy (STX AU). 

The all-scrip bid - by way of a Scheme - entailed an implied A$0.20/share in Strike shares plus Talon shareholders retaining their holding in Talon’s Mongolia gas project.
After Talon said it intended to undertake a process of evaluation of the Proposal before offering due diligence, Strike promptly withdrew its bid.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 17th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD42.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare Ear, Aurizon, Suncorp, Beach Energy.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 17th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD42.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare Ear, Aurizon, Suncorp, Beach Energy.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 17th): Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare Ear, Aurizon

Australia

Strike Energy Limited is an oil and gas exploration company whose exploration activities are located in the Carnarvon Basin in Western Australia and the Cooper Basin in South Australia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Strike Energy (STX AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50, ASX100, ASX 200 and ASX300 indices at the September rebalance. There is big flow and impact on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Strike Energy Yanks Its NBIO For Talon

Strike has walked, and Talon is trading 10% below the scrip terms, ex-Mongolia. IF you believe Talon can convert its significant resources to...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 17th): Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare Ear, Aurizon

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50, ASX100, ASX 200 and ASX300 indices at the September rebalance. There is big flow and impact on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

InvoCare (IVC AU): SID Signed with TPG at A$12.7/Share

TPG has signed an SID to buy all shares in Invocare at A$12.7/sh. There is an extra A$0.257/share in franking credits for those that can use it....

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Strike Energy Yanks Its NBIO For Talon

Strike has walked, and Talon is trading 10% below the scrip terms, ex-Mongolia. IF you believe Talon can convert its significant resources to...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 17th): Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare Ear, Aurizon

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed